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PEG ratio - why is 1 the magic number?

Posted on 1/15/17 at 1:19 am
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
28589 posts
Posted on 1/15/17 at 1:19 am
quote:

Theoretical perfect correlation between market value and projected earnings growth assigns a PEG ratio value of 1 to a stock. PEG ratios higher than 1 are generally considered unfavorable, suggesting a stock is overvalued. Conversely, ratios lower than 1 are considered better, indicating a stock is undervalued.


https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012715/what-considered-good-peg-price-earnings-growth-ratio.asp

I understand how to calculate PEG ratios, and I understand why a lower PEG ratio indicates better value. However, I can't figure out why "1" is the magic PEG ratio that indicates "perfect correlation between market value and projected earnings growth."

Can anyone explain?
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 1/15/17 at 2:06 am to
I don't think it has any theoretical basis. I think it's more of a rule of thumb derived from Peter Lynch's quote in his 1989 book, "The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate."

More fully ( LINK):
"The p/e ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate ... If the p/e of Coca-Cola is 15, you'd expect the company to be growing at about 15 percent a year, etc. But if the p/e ratio is less than the growth rate, you may have found yourself a bargain. A company, say, with a growth rate of 12 percent a year ... and a p/e ratio of 6 is a very attractive prospect. On the other hand, a company with a growth rate of 6 percent a year and a p/e ratio of 12 is an unattractive prospect and headed for a comedown."

I suppose this rule of thumb made sense for the particular interest rate and inflation conditions of 1989, but I'm not sure how well it holds today. From 1989 to 2016, S&P 500 earnings ( LINK) increased from 43.84 to 87.17, for a real growth rate of less than 2.6%. You can throw in inflation, but that was less than 2.5% per year for that time period, so you still only get a little over 5% nominal growth rate. Does that mean the S&P 500 stocks should have P/E ratios of 5?

What about cash cow stocks that might have slightly negative growth rates? Why include an arbitrary multiplication by 100 to get a percent figure? I suppose there might be something I'm missing, but it looks to me like a merely coincidental rule of thumb that worked well in the 1980s.
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
36761 posts
Posted on 1/15/17 at 10:15 am to
1 means the market is efficient. Your growth and current value are projected at the same price.
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