Started By
Message

Mortgage Rates Continue To Slide

Posted on 12/28/23 at 4:33 pm
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
6683 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 4:33 pm
quote:

Mortgage rates are down again this week — the lowest level since May.

The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage declined to 6.61% from 6.67% the week prior, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday. Rates fell for the ninth consecutive week. Overall, rates have fallen over a full point from 7.79% in October.

For potential homebuyers, the recent improvement should, in theory, provide relief. But the limited inventory of existing homes on the market continues to be a challenge when it comes to affordability.


quote:

Said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com: “A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates.”


LINK
This post was edited on 12/28/23 at 4:35 pm
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73718 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 4:49 pm to
The Real Estate agents where right
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36707 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:00 pm to
I know that it depends on many many things but typically at what rate difference does it make sense to refinance?

Our son and his wife bought a home and idk what rate they got but it was a hefty one. Not sure that they plan to stay there for more than 3/4 years but who really knows?

Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35333 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:52 pm to
quote:

but typically at what rate difference does it make sense to refinance?


It’s a math problem.

How long do they reasonably anticipate staying in the house?

How much is the all in cost to refi?

How much less is the monthly payment?

Figure all that out and see if you come out ahead with the refi.

If it’s gonna take 3 years of payments to break even on the refi cost, don’t do it if it’s reasonably likely you will want or need to sell in 2 years.
Posted by Nu Iota Prophet
Texas
Member since Jul 2012
110 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 8:04 pm to
I really don't understand why housing prices have to go up when rates drop. Would seem ideal for prices to remain flat as rates drop to move inventory and interest in purchasing.
Who making these rules?
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11103 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

I really don't understand why housing prices have to go up when rates drop


They don’t. That’s probable in theory only. There’s too many other variables other than mortgage rates that impact housing prices.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35333 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 9:22 pm to
I imagine there are quite a few non homeowners who were on the cusp in early 2022 who got priced out due to interest rates right as they were preparing to buy. All those people plus people who have been holding off on upgrading etc will have much more appetite for buying in a declining rate environment.


There’s a lot of demand sitting on the sidelines just waiting for rates to drop a little more.
Posted by AUjim
America
Member since Dec 2012
3662 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

There’s a lot of demand sitting on the sidelines


You're correct, but elevated prices and rates that are still double what many folks have are not going to entice many folks to make a move.
Posted by XenScott
Pensacola
Member since Oct 2016
3136 posts
Posted on 12/28/23 at 10:31 pm to
quote:

I really don't understand why housing prices have to go up when rates drop. Would seem ideal for prices to remain flat as rates drop to move inventory and interest in purchasing. Who making these rules?


Supply demand equation. I’m a builder and if demand picks up any appreciable amount, my cost to build goes up. If it spikes. My prices will spike. If somehow magically interest rates immediately dropped to 5%, my lumber costs would double at least.
Posted by Penn
Jax Beach
Member since Jan 2008
23448 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 6:02 am to
100%
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20456 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 6:49 am to
quote:

Supply demand equation. I’m a builder and if demand picks up any appreciable amount, my cost to build goes up. If it spikes. My prices will spike. If somehow magically interest rates immediately dropped to 5%, my lumber costs would double at least.


Sounds like you should have been a crawfish farmer
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51622 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 7:44 am to
quote:

There’s a lot of demand sitting on the sidelines just waiting for rates to drop a little more.


This + XenScott's response is likely the majority of it.

All the demand which was actualized with lower rates didn't simply go away when rates rose, it just changed to latent demand. Because of the low supply of available housing at decent prices in areas people want to live, some of that latent demand eventually changes to actualized as some buyers determine the price and rates are worthwhile (and likely figure they will just refi once rates drop).

We're a culture that doesn't like our needs/wants being unmet and isn't scared of over-accumulating debt in order to meet those needs/wants. As more and more time passes with rates being so much higher than they have been for a long time, more and more buyers will get used to the idea of such rates as being the new norm and then try to find ways to make home-buying work within that framework (smaller homes, buying in less desirable areas, etc). This will express itself as prices being slow to drop and an inordinate amount of buyers jumping off the sidelines at any small positivity in the market (like rates dropping).

If that amount of buyers is high enough, it can drive prices back up even though the change in rates isn't enough to make the total price lower than before rates dropped.

It's still a seller's market, if they are patient and realistic enough.
Posted by GAFF
Georgia
Member since Aug 2010
2450 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 7:48 am to
If people are on the sidelines waiting then they’re probably in a rental, correct? Say they signed a lease in October, they wouldn’t be able to buy until next October or lose thousands by breaking the lease. It’s not like every person on the sidelines can suddenly buy when rates drop. Wouldn’t that help with some of the “surge” if rates were to drop? Am I thinking of this right?

I’m wanting to build so I need rates and material to drop.
This post was edited on 12/29/23 at 7:49 am
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25602 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:03 am to
Fuel prices should help most material prices.

I haven't tracked it, but they should have leveled and dropped over the past couple of years.
Posted by RidiculousHype
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2007
10205 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:03 am to
quote:

“A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates.”

ZERO SUM THUNDERDOME!!
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73718 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:23 am to
Not sure why Im getting downvotes

This is exactly what was said. Rates will drop and driving prices higher since there is no inventory

1% rate drop brings back like 5mil new buyers for less a 1mil homes available

Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
13862 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:31 am to
quote:

Not sure why Im getting downvotes

Probably because this:
quote:

Said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com: “A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates.”

is still just a prediction by some guy.


Here is what is actually happening right now:
LINK
quote:

US pending home sales stuck at 22-year low despite dip in rates
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25602 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:35 am to
quote:

quote:
US pending home sales stuck at 22-year low despite dip in rates



You don't expect a lag from buyers on the sidelines to buyers in contracts?

The very nature of "on the sidelines" indicates that a mortgage company is going to want to redocument income and asset verification. The homebuyer actually has to find the proper home (not just any home. If the inventory hasn't improved, there is a good chance that "the home" isn't available yet).
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
13862 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:39 am to
quote:

You don't expect a lag from buyers on the sidelines to buyers in contracts?

I do.

But it's still too early to claim "the real estate agents were right" until.. you know.. they actually become right.
Posted by Tiger Prawn
Member since Dec 2016
21901 posts
Posted on 12/29/23 at 9:16 am to
There’s a lot of people who own homes currently that would like to move, but have put it off because they didn’t want to trade their current 3% mortgage for a 7+% rate. Rates coming down would get some of those people moving. Though in theory that would add to inventory with the home they’re selling, assuming they aren’t planning to keep it as a rental
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 3Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram