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Mortgage Rates Continue To Slide
Posted on 12/28/23 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 12/28/23 at 4:33 pm
quote:
Mortgage rates are down again this week — the lowest level since May.
The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage declined to 6.61% from 6.67% the week prior, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday. Rates fell for the ninth consecutive week. Overall, rates have fallen over a full point from 7.79% in October.
For potential homebuyers, the recent improvement should, in theory, provide relief. But the limited inventory of existing homes on the market continues to be a challenge when it comes to affordability.
quote:
Said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com: “A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates.”
LINK
This post was edited on 12/28/23 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 12/28/23 at 4:49 pm to ronricks
The Real Estate agents where right
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:00 pm to ronricks
I know that it depends on many many things but typically at what rate difference does it make sense to refinance?
Our son and his wife bought a home and idk what rate they got but it was a hefty one. Not sure that they plan to stay there for more than 3/4 years but who really knows?
Our son and his wife bought a home and idk what rate they got but it was a hefty one. Not sure that they plan to stay there for more than 3/4 years but who really knows?
Posted on 12/28/23 at 5:52 pm to tiger91
quote:
but typically at what rate difference does it make sense to refinance?
It’s a math problem.
How long do they reasonably anticipate staying in the house?
How much is the all in cost to refi?
How much less is the monthly payment?
Figure all that out and see if you come out ahead with the refi.
If it’s gonna take 3 years of payments to break even on the refi cost, don’t do it if it’s reasonably likely you will want or need to sell in 2 years.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 8:04 pm to ronricks
I really don't understand why housing prices have to go up when rates drop. Would seem ideal for prices to remain flat as rates drop to move inventory and interest in purchasing.
Who making these rules?
Who making these rules?
Posted on 12/28/23 at 8:47 pm to Nu Iota Prophet
quote:
I really don't understand why housing prices have to go up when rates drop
They don’t. That’s probable in theory only. There’s too many other variables other than mortgage rates that impact housing prices.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 9:22 pm to Nu Iota Prophet
I imagine there are quite a few non homeowners who were on the cusp in early 2022 who got priced out due to interest rates right as they were preparing to buy. All those people plus people who have been holding off on upgrading etc will have much more appetite for buying in a declining rate environment.
There’s a lot of demand sitting on the sidelines just waiting for rates to drop a little more.
There’s a lot of demand sitting on the sidelines just waiting for rates to drop a little more.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 9:32 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
There’s a lot of demand sitting on the sidelines
You're correct, but elevated prices and rates that are still double what many folks have are not going to entice many folks to make a move.
Posted on 12/28/23 at 10:31 pm to Nu Iota Prophet
quote:
I really don't understand why housing prices have to go up when rates drop. Would seem ideal for prices to remain flat as rates drop to move inventory and interest in purchasing. Who making these rules?
Supply demand equation. I’m a builder and if demand picks up any appreciable amount, my cost to build goes up. If it spikes. My prices will spike. If somehow magically interest rates immediately dropped to 5%, my lumber costs would double at least.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 6:49 am to XenScott
quote:
Supply demand equation. I’m a builder and if demand picks up any appreciable amount, my cost to build goes up. If it spikes. My prices will spike. If somehow magically interest rates immediately dropped to 5%, my lumber costs would double at least.
Sounds like you should have been a crawfish farmer
Posted on 12/29/23 at 7:44 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
There’s a lot of demand sitting on the sidelines just waiting for rates to drop a little more.
This + XenScott's response is likely the majority of it.
All the demand which was actualized with lower rates didn't simply go away when rates rose, it just changed to latent demand. Because of the low supply of available housing at decent prices in areas people want to live, some of that latent demand eventually changes to actualized as some buyers determine the price and rates are worthwhile (and likely figure they will just refi once rates drop).
We're a culture that doesn't like our needs/wants being unmet and isn't scared of over-accumulating debt in order to meet those needs/wants. As more and more time passes with rates being so much higher than they have been for a long time, more and more buyers will get used to the idea of such rates as being the new norm and then try to find ways to make home-buying work within that framework (smaller homes, buying in less desirable areas, etc). This will express itself as prices being slow to drop and an inordinate amount of buyers jumping off the sidelines at any small positivity in the market (like rates dropping).
If that amount of buyers is high enough, it can drive prices back up even though the change in rates isn't enough to make the total price lower than before rates dropped.
It's still a seller's market, if they are patient and realistic enough.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 7:48 am to baldona
If people are on the sidelines waiting then they’re probably in a rental, correct? Say they signed a lease in October, they wouldn’t be able to buy until next October or lose thousands by breaking the lease. It’s not like every person on the sidelines can suddenly buy when rates drop. Wouldn’t that help with some of the “surge” if rates were to drop? Am I thinking of this right?
I’m wanting to build so I need rates and material to drop.
I’m wanting to build so I need rates and material to drop.
This post was edited on 12/29/23 at 7:49 am
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:03 am to GAFF
Fuel prices should help most material prices.
I haven't tracked it, but they should have leveled and dropped over the past couple of years.
I haven't tracked it, but they should have leveled and dropped over the past couple of years.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:03 am to ronricks
quote:
“A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates.”
ZERO SUM THUNDERDOME!!
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:23 am to SDVTiger
Not sure why Im getting downvotes
This is exactly what was said. Rates will drop and driving prices higher since there is no inventory
1% rate drop brings back like 5mil new buyers for less a 1mil homes available
This is exactly what was said. Rates will drop and driving prices higher since there is no inventory
1% rate drop brings back like 5mil new buyers for less a 1mil homes available
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:31 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Not sure why Im getting downvotes
Probably because this:
quote:
Said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com: “A drop in rates makes it more likely that prices will start heading higher earlier than normal in 2024, and higher prices will erase some of the benefits of lower mortgage rates.”
is still just a prediction by some guy.
Here is what is actually happening right now:
LINK
quote:
US pending home sales stuck at 22-year low despite dip in rates
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:35 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
quote:
US pending home sales stuck at 22-year low despite dip in rates
You don't expect a lag from buyers on the sidelines to buyers in contracts?
The very nature of "on the sidelines" indicates that a mortgage company is going to want to redocument income and asset verification. The homebuyer actually has to find the proper home (not just any home. If the inventory hasn't improved, there is a good chance that "the home" isn't available yet).
Posted on 12/29/23 at 8:39 am to meansonny
quote:
You don't expect a lag from buyers on the sidelines to buyers in contracts?
I do.
But it's still too early to claim "the real estate agents were right" until.. you know.. they actually become right.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 9:16 am to GAFF
There’s a lot of people who own homes currently that would like to move, but have put it off because they didn’t want to trade their current 3% mortgage for a 7+% rate. Rates coming down would get some of those people moving. Though in theory that would add to inventory with the home they’re selling, assuming they aren’t planning to keep it as a rental
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