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Started By
Message
re: Haynesville Shale
Posted on 6/5/08 at 12:16 am to ShreveportTIGER318
Posted on 6/5/08 at 12:16 am to ShreveportTIGER318
quote:
I can't see the friersons selling their land.
not their land, their mineral rights maybe. I have heard that they have made a large chunk of money from this whole deal.
0
Posted on 6/5/08 at 8:58 am to tigerjohnny
quote:
15000 per acre plus 25% royalties
The highest I've heard so far has been 6500 / acre with 25%. 15000 sounds like it could be a little high.
Posted on 6/5/08 at 12:39 pm to LSU0358
well I know that the YMCA got 9000 an acre for their 51 acres at camp forbing. 15000 is just what the people a few blocks from me have told us they are trying to get. they were walking up and down ellerbe talking to every person they could to try to get people to stick together on a price
Posted on 6/5/08 at 1:07 pm to tigerjohnny
quote:
they were walking up and down ellerbe talking to every person they could to try to get people to stick together on a price
Best way to get a good price...lost of people in the Fort Worth area did this.
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:15 pm to LSU0358
quote:
The highest I've heard so far has been 6500 / acre with 25%. 15000 sounds like it could be a little high.
For a good well, how much annual income are we talking about it kicking off?
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:17 pm to LSU0358
Petrohawk called us this week wanting to make an offer on our leases in Caddo. Confirmed what we already knew in that the shale thins to the North right at Benton. Anything Benton area and northward is no good. So to any landowners with land north of T19N you are probably out of luck, and better luck next time around. To the south it will just be too deep past the Northern Natchitoches/Southern Red River parish line area. South Caddo, South Bossier, most of Desoto, and Northern Red River appear to be the best spots in Louisiana, and Shelby, eastern Panola, and southeastern Harrison will probably be the best in Texas.
This post was edited on 6/5/08 at 2:32 pm
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:21 pm to TigerDog83
How does Kingston/Keatchie/Grand Cane look?
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:25 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
For a good well, how much annual income are we talking about it kicking off?
Well, most companies are quietly assuming 5 BCF of gas (Billion cubic feet) plus per well on 60 acre spacing (So about 7-8 wells per section of land). With gas trading today around 12.00 per MCF, each BCF is worth approximately 12 million dollars at todays prices. Assuming again 12.00 per MCF gas prices, and a recovery of 45-55 BCF per section (Per Petrohawk) that is 600 million dollars plus in revenue per section to the oil/gas producer. Take out 7-8% for state severance taxes, and multiply that by a royalty amount of 25%, and you get about 150 million dollars per section to the landowner (royalty owner). This will vary by section and location, and of course gas prices themselves vary, but it would not be surprising to arrive at around $200,000 per net mineral acre in royaties over the next 20-30 years.
This post was edited on 6/5/08 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:26 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
How does Kingston/Keatchie/Grand Cane look?
Money in the bank.....dead center in the play. Have you leased already there? There is already a good deal of production in that area from the Cotton Valley formation.
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:29 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
Money in the bank.....dead center in the play. Have you leased already there? There is already a good deal of production in that area from the Cotton Valley formation.
My mom's side of the family is all from Kingston, and I believe we own some decent acreage there. I know they have had some good action in the past few years, but I really don't know that much about it. How does the Haynesville Shale impact/interfere with the Cotton Valley formation?
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:29 pm to TigerDog83
Can you post a link to a good township and range map of Bossier Parish? Thanks. I still can't get over the possible recoverable gas amounts that the Petrohawk well is showing.. $200,000 per acre, that is ridiculous! Anybody who owns land in this play and votes for Obama will need to have their head checked unless they want to pay millions more to Uncle Sam!
This post was edited on 6/5/08 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:38 pm to Tiger JJ
quote:
My mom's side of the family is all from Kingston, and I believe we own some decent acreage there. I know they have had some good action in the past few years, but I really don't know that much about it. How does the Haynesville Shale impact/interfere with the Cotton Valley formation?
It really doesn't. It is a bit deeper, and my best guess is the wells will be drilled separately most likely instead of commingling the Cotton Valley due to pressure differences. The only thing would be if there are depth clauses in your original leases. If not, shallow production will hold rights, but if there are depth restrictions (pugh clauses) in the lease the deep rights probably can be leased now for a big bonus (below the current deepest producing formation). Other than that the Haynesville royalties will be in addition to the Cotton Valley. In an area with good Cotton Valley production the mineral owner will be making tremendous money with both formations producing.
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:39 pm to TigerDog83
HK Presentation 6-3-08
Click on the PDF file here. RBC Capital conference presentation from Petrohawk.
Click on the PDF file here. RBC Capital conference presentation from Petrohawk.
This post was edited on 6/5/08 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 6/5/08 at 2:57 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
It really doesn't. It is a bit deeper, and my best guess is the wells will be drilled separately most likely instead of commingling the Cotton Valley due to pressure differences. The only thing would be if there are depth clauses in your original leases. If not, shallow production will hold rights, but if there are depth restrictions (pugh clauses) in the lease the deep rights probably can be leased now for a big bonus (below the current deepest producing formation). Other than that the Haynesville royalties will be in addition to the Cotton Valley. In an area with good Cotton Valley production the mineral owner will be making tremendous money with both formations producing.
83, by what order of magnitude should the Haynesville wells outproduce (from a $ standpoint) the Cotton Valley wells?
Posted on 6/5/08 at 3:18 pm to TigerDog83
What do you think the prospects are for land just to the southwest of Benton? Like Festervan's land on the west side of Benton road just across from Benton High school.
Posted on 6/5/08 at 3:20 pm to Tiger JJ
The "tight sand" Cotton Valley wells in this area like the ones at Elm Grove generally produce at an initial rate of 1000 MCFGD to 1500 MCFGD (good ones) and then decline slowly for a long period of time (20 years or more). Some are better, and some are worse, but using Elm Grove as an example the individual wells cost 2-3 million to drill and complete. Good wells recover about 1-2 BCFG each on 20-40 acre spacing, also varying according to fields. From the limited data we have on the Haynesville, it is thought that they will cost 5-7 million to drill and will produce 10000 MCFGD or more. It is so early we don't have a good idea of decline rates or that information, but HK is already assuming 5 plus BCFG per well on 60 acre spacing. My guess is this will increase over time due to better technology and "trial and error" completion techniques. These wells also might produce for better than 30-50 years. Again, it is so early in the play we just don't know yet. But the way Chesapeake and others are moving ahead indicates that their own information that is not public indicates that this play is very, very substantial.
Posted on 6/5/08 at 3:22 pm to GeneralLee
A couple of wells drilled in that area have comed up dry...or close to it. Two or three wells have been drilled close to The Colony neighborhood (not sure if they were Haynesville or Cotton Valley). I haven't heard that they've hit anything significant.
This post was edited on 6/5/08 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 6/5/08 at 3:24 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
What do you think the prospects are for land just to the southwest of Benton? Like Festervan's land on the west side of Benton road just across from Benton High school.
Hard to say since it is kind of on the fringes, so to speak. The J-W Rumbaugh well directly across the river from there screened out when it was frac'd. That is the farthest north Petrohawk wants to go, even though they have leasehold in Benton (those leases were on Cotton Valley ideas 2 years ago). I know CHK is leasing around there, but that is kind of how they work. They like to lease tons of land, and if 60% of it is productive they are fine with that. They did the same thing in the Fayettville shale as over 400,000 acres they leased in Eastern Arkansas just would not work.
Posted on 6/5/08 at 3:26 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
The "tight sand" Cotton Valley wells in this area like the ones at Elm Grove generally produce at an initial rate of 1000 MCFGD to 1500 MCFGD (good ones) and then decline slowly for a long period of time (20 years or more). Some are better, and some are worse, but using Elm Grove as an example the individual wells cost 2-3 million to drill and complete. Good wells recover about 1-2 BCFG each on 20-40 acre spacing, also varying according to fields. From the limited data we have on the Haynesville, it is thought that they will cost 5-7 million to drill and will produce 10000 MCFGD or more. It is so early we don't have a good idea of decline rates or that information, but HK is already assuming 5 plus BCFG per well on 60 acre spacing. My guess is this will increase over time due to better technology and "trial and error" completion techniques. These wells also might produce for better than 30-50 years. Again, it is so early in the play we just don't know yet. But the way Chesapeake and others are moving ahead indicates that their own information that is not public indicates that this play is very, very substantial.
So you're saying 6-10 times more than Cotton Valley?
I didn't understand the $200K figure you gave earlier? Was that per well per year? Per acre per year? Per well per life???
Posted on 6/5/08 at 3:28 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
The J-W Rumbaugh well directly across the river from there screened out when it was frac'd.
What does that mean? Sorry.
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