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Goldman Sachs Claims Oil could go to $20 a barrel
Posted on 10/2/15 at 8:57 am
Posted on 10/2/15 at 8:57 am
LINK
I don't believe this. I think they are saying this so chumps will sell their oil stocks, allowing these banking crooks to buy them up for cheaper than they are worth.
Am I just being a paranoid cynic or will oil prices really go this low?
I don't believe this. I think they are saying this so chumps will sell their oil stocks, allowing these banking crooks to buy them up for cheaper than they are worth.
Am I just being a paranoid cynic or will oil prices really go this low?
14
Posted on 10/2/15 at 9:03 am to goodbuds
Supply is up and demand is down. I don't see anything wrong with their thoughts. The pricing models they use might be a little off and $20 a barrel seems low but it's definitely possible.
Oil is around $45/barrel right now but 12 months ago it was at $85. Would you have believed the article if it came out then and said oil could drop to $40/barrel in 12 months?
Oil is around $45/barrel right now but 12 months ago it was at $85. Would you have believed the article if it came out then and said oil could drop to $40/barrel in 12 months?
Posted on 10/2/15 at 9:08 am to goodbuds
quote:
September 11, 2015
Posted on 10/2/15 at 9:33 am to goodbuds
GS is historically very bear-ish on oil, for whatever reason. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong. They pay analysts millions of dollars to come up with these reports, so I assume they know more than I. But figuring out oil futures is something Wall Street has been trying to do for 100 years with mixed success.
This post was edited on 10/2/15 at 9:35 am
Posted on 10/2/15 at 9:37 am to goodbuds
Knowing Goldman they probably are on the other end of the trade for whatever information they are putting out. Could oil go to $20 a barrel? Yes, but that would have to see demand destruction and more supply. Considering US supply rolling over along with Saudi/OPEC and Russia having no more spare capacity it seems doubtful. Realistically Iran and Iraq are the only places in the world with ability to add oil to the market in this price environment and Iraq is showing signs prices will curtail their recent adds. Iran is a wild card but most of their fields are in need of rejuvenation and outside capital/expertise and would take many months to add supply most likely.
Posted on 10/2/15 at 10:48 am to goodbuds
First two sentences of article:
I mean, it's possible that I might hit the powerball tomorrow. Lots of things are possible, don't mean they will happen.
They said it's not the base-case scenerio, so the don't even think it's likely to occur.
quote:
The global surplus of oil is even bigger than Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thought and that could drive prices as low as $20 a barrel.
While it’s not the base-case scenario, a failure to reduce production fast enough may require prices near that level to clear the oversupply, Goldman said in a report e-mailed Friday while cutting its Brent and WTI crude forecasts through 2016.
I mean, it's possible that I might hit the powerball tomorrow. Lots of things are possible, don't mean they will happen.
They said it's not the base-case scenerio, so the don't even think it's likely to occur.
Posted on 10/2/15 at 11:02 am to goodbuds
I think they'll be right...eventually in the next 5 years. Short term, looks like a bounce is coming IMO.
Posted on 10/2/15 at 2:12 pm to LSU0358
Tudor Pickering and Holt recently released some finding that production is falling faster than currently estimated. suggesting that prices could begin to rise in 2016.
follow OILPRO on twitter and search to their TPH stuff.
if the Syrian war escalates then anything is possible.
follow OILPRO on twitter and search to their TPH stuff.
if the Syrian war escalates then anything is possible.
Posted on 10/2/15 at 2:45 pm to goodbuds
Everyone makes predictions. GS may be right, they're probably wrong.
Posted on 10/2/15 at 5:26 pm to goodbuds
I dont see how that can really happen at this point.
Demand is increasing and US production will slow....
Demand is increasing and US production will slow....
Posted on 10/2/15 at 5:33 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Demand is increasing
Just in time for the winter driving season?
quote:
US production will slow
And foreign will ramp up where it isn't already and remain at full throttle elsewhere
Posted on 10/2/15 at 5:44 pm to goodbuds
Serious question. Why were big oil companies up anywhere from 3 to 9 percent today??
Posted on 10/2/15 at 6:40 pm to Porker Face
quote:
Just in time for the winter driving season?
Global
quote:
And foreign will ramp up where it isn't already and remain at full throttle elsewhere
lol
This post was edited on 10/2/15 at 6:40 pm
Posted on 10/2/15 at 7:13 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Global
Yeah. China is going to start demanding more oil any day now. Lol
I'd be interested in what data you are looking at, if any
This post was edited on 10/2/15 at 7:16 pm
Posted on 10/2/15 at 7:15 pm to LSU0358
quote:
I think they'll be right...eventually in the next 5 years.
Why?
Posted on 10/2/15 at 7:29 pm to Porker Face
quote:
I'd be interested in what data you are looking at, if any
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/us-oil-demand-kemp-idUSKCN0RU2NX20151001
This post was edited on 10/2/15 at 7:31 pm
Posted on 10/3/15 at 6:52 am to cjared036
Tudor's opinion on oil is exponentially more relevant than goldman's. Goldman is good at most I Banking, but they aren't top 3 and probably not too 5 in energy banking.
Posted on 10/3/15 at 9:38 am to goodbuds
quote:If I remember correctly from seeing this when it first came out, isn't this their worst case scenario? Their baseline prediction is probably much more realistic - like $40-50 or something along those lines.
Goldman Sachs Claims Oil could go to $20 a barrel
Posted on 10/3/15 at 10:13 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Serious question. Why were big oil companies up anywhere from 3 to 9 percent tod
I think because rig count came in at a 5-year low so production appears to be slowing...that and the Russia thing
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:46 am to Grits N Shrimp
Goldman could very well be correct because one of the things taking place right now is the black market of oil supplies being dumped on the market by Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Libya. They are selling barrels of oil over there for $5 dollars a barrel right now in Syria.
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