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Expected investment returns
Posted on 10/25/15 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 10/25/15 at 11:13 pm
In real terms. After inflation and all, what are you expecting, realistically? I see some numbers as low as 3 for stocks, and obviously the super optimistic 10-12.
4
Posted on 10/26/15 at 12:35 am to jimbeam
I see numbers from 6 - 8 in the yearly average safe number range all the time.
I just assume I'm going to be on the low end and try to save enough money to reach that overall number.
That way I'm not 200k short in 50 years.
I just assume I'm going to be on the low end and try to save enough money to reach that overall number.
That way I'm not 200k short in 50 years.
This post was edited on 10/26/15 at 12:36 am
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:23 am to jimbeam
I'm really not concerned with yearly average in the short term. My goal is when I want to retire (30+ years from now), that my investments have averaged a ~7-8% per year return. Whether that is down 50% over the next 10 years and then up 150% at the end of 20 years, it really doesn't matter.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 8:27 am to jimbeam
I always plan for 5% net after inflation for 100% stock index funds.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:42 am to Sigma
quote:
I always plan for 5% net after inflation...
5% average annual real return is my expectation as well. If the "new normal" inflation rate is in the 2-3% range, that would put the nominal at about 8% and my money would double about every nine years. If my account value has doubled over the next ten years, then I would be satisfied.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 11:02 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:
If the "new normal" inflation rate is in the 2-3% range
Why would 2-3% be the new normal when the central banks have failed to hit this mark? The Fed, ECB and Japanese CB have failed miserably at the 2-3% target
Posted on 10/26/15 at 12:18 pm to wutangfinancial
If inflation is less than 2-3% and my nominal returns are 8% +/-, then my real returns would be even greater. 
Posted on 10/26/15 at 12:51 pm to jimbeam
Since I don't know shite about investing, can someone explain this to me:
Why the frick is it down over 3% then today?
quote:
Apple (AAPL) weighed heavily on the Dow. Ahead of being one of the most highly anticipated earnings reports, the stock was the worst performing blue chip. The iPhone maker is scheduled to post quarterly results after the bell on Tuesday. Forecasts are strong with analysts expecting profit and sales to grow from a year ago.
Why the frick is it down over 3% then today?
Posted on 10/26/15 at 1:42 pm to Sho Nuff
AAPL is one of the most heavily weighted holdings in growth mutual funds. I'd imagine this is a great "taking gains" day on aapl prior to the year end for these funds, not to mention they are reported their earnings this week.
So just a lot of anticipation on how China has affected their sales and there is massive volume on the sell side to take those gains in case earnings are missed and or guidance is lowered.
So just a lot of anticipation on how China has affected their sales and there is massive volume on the sell side to take those gains in case earnings are missed and or guidance is lowered.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 1:44 pm to Sho Nuff
That's just Apple baw. Investors are really spooked about Chinese growth and have been for a few years and there has been what appears to be irrational selling.
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