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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 4/3/24 at 6:17 pm to
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
105 posts
Posted on 4/3/24 at 6:17 pm to
Not posted in news? I don't buy it
Posted by ArkyLi
Member since Apr 2024
3 posts
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:35 pm to
I don’t see what that bullish case could be. They churched it up like it was going to be 100% settled at the Li Summit.

It impacts all the producers so maybe they’ve pulled it to all go in together? They talked about the unique partnership with Lanxess leading to issues determining the royalty which would establish a base case for future leases. That was the hold up prior. Mintak and the brass from Tetra and Exxon met with the governor during the summit, I was there.

I’m running out of straws to grasp. Arkansas wants it badly, especially the gov.
Posted by ArkyLi
Member since Apr 2024
3 posts
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:35 pm to
Ok, don’t.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
313 posts
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:06 pm to
Yeah I specifically asked SLI IR in January if they were anticipating a decision in April, or if April just represents the earliest possible timeframe for such a decision. They said it was their current understanding that the decision was likely in April.

After watching and rewatching the December AOGC hearing I couldn't figure out how they would reconcile their desire to see SLI's agreements with Lanxess and SLI's desire to keep those agreements confidential. Maybe they didn't reconcile those?

Hope it isn't the bigger companies lobbying for a higher royalty than SLI can survive and that they just withdrew so all companies can consolidate an application like you said. I know SLI wanted Lanxess royalty to be unique due to lower lithium grade but last I read in some official comment from Exxon, Exxon wanted one royalty for the whole state.

Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
313 posts
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:17 pm to
FYI Standard's withdrawal of royalty application is official. Straight from the AOGC



Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
313 posts
Posted on 4/3/24 at 11:34 pm to
Who knows, Standard may just be retooling their proposal since lithium prices have dropped since their proposal was put forth. Lithium commentators that I've followed (that disagree with each other on much) pretty much all say that the lithium carbonate spot price is closer to $15k than $30k now. Don't know how spot price will correlate to offtake contract prices though.




Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
2011 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 4:56 am to
Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7005 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 8:36 am to
Maybe Exxon will have a little sympathy for Mintak. Like when those basketball teams let the handicapped trainer take a few shots at the end of a game
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 9:15 pm
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3148 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:17 am to
Certainly a little unsettling.

If they are just making some changes to the application it represents in the least another significant delay.

They could just be shutting down shop.

Exxon could be buying them out.

They submitted it April 1st, could just be an April Fools joke on the AOGC.

So many totally viable scenarios.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19617 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:43 am to
I am a little unclear on the leases, these are structured like traditional O&G leases correct? Deadlines on progress to production or the lease is voided?

If so the leases aren't worth anything and Exxon can just wait SLI out and pick them up when get forfeited due to lack of progress.
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 10:33 am
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3148 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 9:59 am to
quote:

If so the leases aren't worth anything and Exxon can just wait SLI out and pick them up when get forfeited due to lack of progress.


It wouldn't be a waiting game in this scenario.

The options (in the pro-case) are either SLI developing the project and being a competitor to Exxon or Exxon buying them out.

ETA: and to answer the lease question, I'm also unsure as to the obligations for development - haven't read the actual lease terms
This post was edited on 4/4/24 at 10:01 am
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19597 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:07 am to
SLI needs to do a couple of things even if they have one foot in the grave or are about to be bought.

The PR needs to call it "green lithium" because it is the cleanest and greenest method of production. Beat the green drum!!!

SLI needs to do independently audited proofs of concept because there are still many who don't really know if the process really works. The last proofs of concept were three years ago and supposedly they have been tweaking the science project ever since then. SLI show your work!

Posted by ThermoDynamicTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
1289 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:08 am to
quote:

SLI needs to do independently audited proofs of concept because there are still many who don't really know if the process really works. The last proofs of concept were three years ago and supposedly they have been tweaking the science project ever since then. SLI show your work!


Why haven't you mentioned this before?
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
2011 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:20 am to
quote:

They submitted it April 1st, could just be an April Fools joke on the AOGC.



Doubt that, the SEC would probably have their way with anyone involved.
Posted by Lightning
Texas
Member since May 2014
2300 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:27 am to
There are several viable scenarios but I'm struggling to find positives in any of them. Even an Exxon buyout, which earlier seemed like a decent option, looks pretty bleak with the stock price lingering around 52 week low and pre-uplist range.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
313 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:43 am to
If I remember right these leases have long extensions available if no production, like 5-10 years. Will look for what I’m remembering
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
105 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 10:49 am to
Standard Lithium said in a press release that it made an agreement with Tetra in 2017. It gave Standard an exclusive option, exercisable over a 10-year period, to the brine production rights.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4591 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 11:36 am to
Someone on the FB group said they spoke with IR and a new application is being submitted. Still not sure how to
Read into that though.
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
2011 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 11:39 am to
Just read that. But when would that hearing be? If they just pulled and refiled, than I believe mintak is faking it until he makes it.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4591 posts
Posted on 4/4/24 at 11:44 am to
That dude who posted it is the same Austin from Seeking Alpha. He’s got some more comments up now with a bit more clarification, but yea hopefully it’s not a game of charades.
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