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Started By
Message
Building a house. Build now or wait to see if prices fall?
Posted on 2/14/19 at 11:06 am
Posted on 2/14/19 at 11:06 am
So I have been planning on building a house for a couple years now. We recently acquired the land and have begun the research process.
Unfortunate construction prices seem to have gone up significantly over the past two years. Probably 15-20% from what I can tell. This is supposedly due an increase in material which is largely atrributed to tariffs.
Question:
Would we be better off waiting a year or two to see if these prices go down? Assuming at least some of these tariffs are permanent and will be renegotiated?
Or is my guess as good as anyone else’s on this?
Building in Lafayette by the way...and yes some of these prices are crazy.
Unfortunate construction prices seem to have gone up significantly over the past two years. Probably 15-20% from what I can tell. This is supposedly due an increase in material which is largely atrributed to tariffs.
Question:
Would we be better off waiting a year or two to see if these prices go down? Assuming at least some of these tariffs are permanent and will be renegotiated?
Or is my guess as good as anyone else’s on this?
Building in Lafayette by the way...and yes some of these prices are crazy.
This post was edited on 2/14/19 at 11:07 am
10
Posted on 2/14/19 at 11:19 am to cajuntiger26
quote:
This is supposedly due an increase in material which is largely atrributed to tariffs.
No its not.
quote:
Would we be better off waiting a year or two to see if these prices go down?
Counting on deflation doesn't seem like a sound strategy to me. Labor is the reason for price increases. There's more jobs than workers causing prices to rise. Could the price of labor go down due to less demand in the next couple of years? Maybe, but that's entirely speculative and interest rates aren't going to go down in that time frame.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 11:58 am to cajuntiger26
Prices will not fall dramatically, either in materials or labor. Keep looking until you find an honest contractor who you can trust....one who will help guide you with making cost effective choices. Some plans are more expensive to build than others--open your mind about shape/size/materials choices rather than go pie-in-the-sky and picking "dream home" stuff. It's a house....you are likely to sell it & buy another before you kick the bucket. Don't get overly emotional about the process, and you will save money.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 12:21 pm to cajuntiger26
What I have noticed around Georgia over the decades is that home prices go up and down, but construction prices just seem to go more steadily higher.
Red- Home Value
Blue- Construction Costs
Red- Home Value
Blue- Construction Costs
Posted on 2/14/19 at 2:03 pm to cajuntiger26
The cost of building a house will continue to rise. That is just inflation. Tariffs does have an impact but it's minimal. My question to you is, how custom do you want your house to be? Two different people can build the exact same house but one can be $100k more in custom upgrades.
Some of the other items that can drive your cost up. Do you need pilings, are you doing tall ceilings, etc.
I'm 50% into a house build and the little items adds up...
Some of the other items that can drive your cost up. Do you need pilings, are you doing tall ceilings, etc.
I'm 50% into a house build and the little items adds up...
This post was edited on 2/14/19 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 2/14/19 at 2:22 pm to cajuntiger26
there are never guarantees in either direction .... so waiting is usually a mistake IF the main purpose is to "save" when prices go down, values, cost of materials etc.
You have to bite the bullet and know that inflation is not on your side
You have to bite the bullet and know that inflation is not on your side
Posted on 2/14/19 at 2:47 pm to DFWgolfer318
quote:
No its not.
It was absolutely true. We had suppliers add 15-20% starting Jan 1st to cover the tariff costs.
Of course that all went away when they delayed the tariffs, but for the first few weeks of january prices were ridiculous.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 3:05 pm to kengel2
quote:
It was absolutely true. We had suppliers add 15-20% starting Jan 1st to cover the tariff costs.
Of course that all went away when they delayed the tariffs, but for the first few weeks of january prices were ridiculous.
Commodity price for lumber closed today roughly 30% higher than the first week of January.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 4:01 pm to cajuntiger26
I'm a construction lender in Lafayette. Home building cost seem to keep raising. Mostly depends on who the builder is and how plush you want the home.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 4:15 pm to cajuntiger26
I'm getting a plan finalized now, already purchased my lot. Talked to one builder with his plan, and he was $195/sq ft. 
I'm hoping and praying I can build for around $150/sq ft.
I'm hoping and praying I can build for around $150/sq ft.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 5:31 pm to cajuntiger26
Build now costs aren’t going down
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:42 pm to cajuntiger26
Pay someone a flat fee to oversee the build and sub it out yourself. You can take your time throughout the whole process and should be able to build it for a decent price. This will obviously be more time consuming.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:44 pm to kengel2
quote:
It was absolutely true. We had suppliers add 15-20% starting Jan 1st to cover the tariff costs.
While that may be true on a few very specific items little of what most people use for construction material is or will be effected by tariffs.
Posted on 2/14/19 at 9:46 pm to deeprig9
Where did you pull your data from? I would like to compile that data here where I am and see if I could buy in those red dips. TIA!
Posted on 2/14/19 at 10:01 pm to DFWgolfer318
quote:
Commodity price for lumber closed today roughly 30% higher than the first week of January
This wouldn't have anything to do with the 4-5 million acres of timberland destroyed in Hurricane Michael, followed by a huge demand for product for rebuilding, would it?
Posted on 2/14/19 at 10:36 pm to shell01
quote:
This wouldn't have anything to do with the 4-5 million acres of timberland destroyed in Hurricane Michael, followed by a huge demand for product for rebuilding, would it?
I can't answer that with any certainty, but if it is the case it's not tarrifs like the post I responded to suggested.
Posted on 2/15/19 at 12:44 am to tigers1988
Who would you recommend as good builders?
Posted on 2/15/19 at 1:08 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
I'm getting a plan finalized now, already purchased my lot. Talked to one builder with his plan, and he was $195/sq ft. I'm hoping and praying I can build for around $150/sq ft.
Yep. I’m being told $175/sq ft myself for a moderate to high end build. Was pretty confident last year in $150 but not so much anymore. I’m with you in hoping I can keep it close to that.
Posted on 2/15/19 at 10:23 am to DFWgolfer318
Not with certainty but I would assume the hurricanes last year in the panhandle and two years ago in Houston may have a hand in the prices of lumber going up.
While I agree that tariffs isn't the a big part in the rise of construction cost, it plays a part and I can tell you that had I not paid my vendors who are supplying my kitchen/outdoor appliances and light/plumbing fixture late last year, I would have seen an 8-15% increase across the board. That may not seem a lot but take that % to an allowance of $50K for those items.
While I agree that tariffs isn't the a big part in the rise of construction cost, it plays a part and I can tell you that had I not paid my vendors who are supplying my kitchen/outdoor appliances and light/plumbing fixture late last year, I would have seen an 8-15% increase across the board. That may not seem a lot but take that % to an allowance of $50K for those items.
Posted on 2/15/19 at 10:33 am to SLIMNOLA
prices are not going to fall. the tarrifs have already hit appliance pricing and possibly plumbing and electrical items. I cannot speak on the lumber increase. Concrete ready mix has a price increase mainly due to cement steadily going up.
i am building in the Raleigh are for about $150/SF. This includes quartz in the kitchen, upgraded appliances, granite in all bathrooms and study, and LVP floors through most of the house.
i am building in the Raleigh are for about $150/SF. This includes quartz in the kitchen, upgraded appliances, granite in all bathrooms and study, and LVP floors through most of the house.
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