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Started By
Message
re: Are we heading towards another 2008 type downturn?
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:44 am to Ole War Skule
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:44 am to Ole War Skule
quote:
Ole War Skule
Your "short the market before 9/11" call was a good one....I never pulled the trigger on getting out of a lot of things and am kicking myself daily it feels like!
1
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:44 am to vuvuzela
quote:
Wow, rough morning.
Yep, I think I might turn the ticker off for the year and check back next year.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:45 am to vuvuzela
quote:This has a "capitulation" feel to it.
Wow, rough morning.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:45 am to AnonymousTiger
Id prolly pull back off the international a little and put a little more in cash and bonds.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:49 am to vuvuzela
quote:
Wow, rough morning.
yep...markets down again, gonna be cranky on the MB
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:53 am to eye65
quote:
Your "short the market before 9/11" call was a good one....I never pulled the trigger on getting out of a lot of things and am kicking myself daily it feels like!
wish I would have done it
I only sold off about 10% and didn't hedge remaining positions...over the long term, it's nearly impossible to market time anyway..
what did seem to be correct, for now anyway, was the 'death cross' technical indicator on the Russell index few weeks back...I don't invest on technical indicators, but we've definitely pulled back hard since then
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:55 am to LSURussian
quote:
This has a "capitulation" feel to it.
I agree. I think there are already some good bargains to be had out there. To be honest I'm hoping it drops some more so I can dip my toe in a little more. Water feels just fine!
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:55 am to Ole War Skule
quote:
buying expensive mutual funds to get lower returns
Here's one example
ICPAX (with 5% load) XLE (no load)
initial: 10,000 10,000
1 yr: 12.4% (net load) 11.43
5 yr: 17.84% 12.93
Again, this is one example and I used energy because they have gotten hammered lately. What better to show than a loaded mutual fund vs a non loaded indexed ETF in a sector that's leading the downturn.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:57 am to LSURussian
quote:
This has a "capitulation" feel to it.
seems herd mentality as been waiting and waiting for this correction...nothing has 'really' changed in the economy, maybe even in better shape due to lower energy prices, but I think traders 'want' a 10% correction before they start buying again before year end.
capitulation, maybe...but I feel it's almost trigger happy investors wanting the market to pull back so they can sell and buy back in at lower prices
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:57 am to vuvuzela
As soon as the DJ went below 16,000, the buyers came in strong.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:04 am to Shepherd88
so you're saying that because ONE mutual fund outperformed the market, it's a good idea to buy mutual funds instead of ETFs?
Just trying to understand your logic, because if that's it, I'll post 10 that under-performed.
Virtually every study done shows it's nearly impossible for fee based investing to beat the market over time. You're looking at ONE data point, I'm talking about the universe of fee based investing.
Also, are you saying this fund will beat the market over the next 10-20 years? Wanna bet?
And who is going to pick his mutual fund? And what are they going to charge to pick it, and how much will that reduce his return?
And why do you think the 'licensed' broker/adviser is going to pick a good fund?
To beat the market with your strategy, one has to 1st get VERY lucky and find a good adviser, THEN the adviser has to get lucky and pick the right fund.
History shows this happens in a small minority of cases. But history could be wrong and in the future, most money managers will beat the market after most have not in the past.
ETA: I'm done....you can have last word...off to the town for the day
Just trying to understand your logic, because if that's it, I'll post 10 that under-performed.
Virtually every study done shows it's nearly impossible for fee based investing to beat the market over time. You're looking at ONE data point, I'm talking about the universe of fee based investing.
Also, are you saying this fund will beat the market over the next 10-20 years? Wanna bet?
And who is going to pick his mutual fund? And what are they going to charge to pick it, and how much will that reduce his return?
And why do you think the 'licensed' broker/adviser is going to pick a good fund?
To beat the market with your strategy, one has to 1st get VERY lucky and find a good adviser, THEN the adviser has to get lucky and pick the right fund.
History shows this happens in a small minority of cases. But history could be wrong and in the future, most money managers will beat the market after most have not in the past.
ETA: I'm done....you can have last word...off to the town for the day
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 9:06 am
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:25 am to AnonymousTiger
I was up 7. Week later. Negative 3.4. Market is collapsing.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:25 am to Ole War Skule
You're not even worth arguing with friend. You have the road you've already chosen and I have mine. Agree to disagree. However, the point I want to get across to the OP is dont take advice from a message board in how to manage your life savings. Go see a professional, or talk to your 401k manager.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:09 am to Ole War Skule
quote:
stay 100% invested always and you'll beat the market
I call BS there. Did that for many years till I retired. In the last 10 years, I took control of my investments. The yo-yoing of the market is a sucker game. For my returns, I play very short and some day trading. Last 9 years with a avg return of 18%.
Oh, this is another market correction in action.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 10:10 am
Posted on 10/15/14 at 10:53 am to Ole War Skule
If Warren Buffett is correct, "be greedy when others are fearful," it may be getting close to the time to be greedy.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 11:00 am to LSURussian
I think we are right on the edge of that time
Posted on 10/15/14 at 11:13 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:Yep. There's a LOT of fear every where now. CNBC is almost in panic mode by their talking heads. You'd think the zombie apocalypse is upon us.
I think we are right on the edge of that time
Posted on 10/15/14 at 11:20 am to LSURussian
quote:
CNBC is almost in panic mode by their talking heads
I keep it on in my office, but 95% of the time it is on mute. Ole Pisani should win an oscar.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 11:20 am to LSURussian
quote:
As soon as the DJ went below 16,000, the buyers came in strong.
Let's see if history will repeat...
Posted on 10/15/14 at 11:24 am to OnTheBrink
quote:It did. This time I was one of the buyers.
As soon as the DJ went below 16,000, the buyers came in strong.
Let's see if history will repeat...
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