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Message
Any thoughts on Chesapeake Energy (CHK)?
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:03 am
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:03 am
I'm thinking of buying in. It's a risk but I have a feeling they will avoid bankruptcy.
4
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:11 am to Kramer26
quote:
It's a risk but I have a feeling they will avoid bankruptcy.
I agree that they may avoid bankruptcy but I still don't like this. Nat Gas is not going up anytime soon and they keep selling assets to pay off debt. I don't think I would touch CHK right now when there are several other long term O&G opportunities right now.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:20 am to Kramer26
I'm not sure what you are seeing in it that would make you feel ok with the purchase. If it's strictly on your thoughts of avoiding BK..... leave it alone.
The charts over the past several years show a steady decline. I see nothing about it that would entice me to purchase at this point.
Maybe if you had a 20K to blow, you could try to catch a small dip and rebound to be out of of with a few cents increase. I think a .05 increase would make you about $225...
For me...Not worth it though.
The charts over the past several years show a steady decline. I see nothing about it that would entice me to purchase at this point.
Maybe if you had a 20K to blow, you could try to catch a small dip and rebound to be out of of with a few cents increase. I think a .05 increase would make you about $225...
For me...Not worth it though.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:24 am to Jjdoc
I'm looking at it as a long term buy. They are the second largest producer of natural gas and if they can get past this rough patch I can see a lot of upside long term. High risk but high reward if it works out.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:43 am to Kramer26
quote:
They are the second largest producer of natural gas and if they can get past this rough patch I can see a lot of upside long term. High risk but high reward if it works out.
The problem with CHK is that debted up so much to purchase all the leases and minerals. They have been in enough debt to start selling assets all over the country just to pay the light bill. Being the second largest producer of Nat Gas is great but they (McClendon) made some extremely shady moves to get there. The started selling assets in 2012 when the price started to drop and they have not stopped.
Nat Gas is low and is not going up anytime in the near future. Unless they can figure out a way to pay off all their debt without letting anymore people go or selling more assets, I just don't see why anyone would invest in them.
If this is a long term play and you are interested in O&G, buy XOM, CVX, COP, etc.. At least you will be getting a dividend.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 12:01 pm to stevengtiger
Would not touch CHK. On top of the debt, they still have a ton of legal liabilities that McClendon left them with.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 12:28 pm to NOFOX
Thanks for all the advice. I already have shares in XOM, CVX, and COP. CHK does have problems but I think the current board will put this company in a position to succeed but it could take years. This feels a lot like Ford when I bought in at $4 a share. I may be wrong but I can afford to add a small amount of risk to my portfolio.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 12:40 pm to Kramer26
It's your money, and if you can afford the loss (not saying it will be... just speaking to the excess money not needed) then do what you feel is right.
Like I stated in another thread... a certain percentage of my over investing dollars will be high risk. However, that percentage is set so that a total loss is never greater than gains
Like I stated in another thread... a certain percentage of my over investing dollars will be high risk. However, that percentage is set so that a total loss is never greater than gains
Posted on 5/20/16 at 1:48 pm to Kramer26
I think they are at better that 75% chance or better of going under. I wouldn't invest.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 7:02 pm to cwill
Crazy to think how they were regarded just 5 years ago. Natural gas never really jumped up. I think someone said alluded to it earlier, but i recall them having a good bit of debt.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:45 pm to rmc
The debt along with terrible midstream contracts are what will ultimately put them under.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:58 pm to cwill
Carl Icahn owns 73 million shares. I really don't think this company is declaring bankruptcy. And Trump and Icahn are big buddies. i trust their judgment in business.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 11:36 pm to cwill
quote:
The debt along with terrible midstream contracts are what will ultimately put them under.
Atleast they can be discharged in ch 11 now
Posted on 5/20/16 at 11:46 pm to Kramer26
quote:
Carl Icahn owns 73 million shares. I really don't think this company is declaring bankruptcy. And Trump and Icahn are big buddies. i trust their judgment in business.
What does trump have to do with this?
Look, Lawler is doing a good job, but McClendon left him with a shite sandwich. They're losing money on nearly every asset because of midstream obligations that were created in the pre-2008 gas market and the debt accrued trying to hold every acre regardless of worth. I'm not certain they go under but I think it's more likely tgN not which is how I land at 75%.
Posted on 5/20/16 at 11:48 pm to barry
quote:
Atleast they can be discharged in ch 11 now
So far that seems to be the only way. Chk claims to have renegotiated with Williams in the NE (where it doesn't matter for a variety of reasons) but I'm not seeing it on their other assets.
Posted on 5/21/16 at 12:10 am to cwill
If Trump wins Icahn would most likely be the treasury secretary. I don't believe they would let CHK declare bankruptcy. They would probably strike a deal to keep them in business. Although this is just speculation.
Posted on 5/21/16 at 5:42 am to Kramer26
I am pretty sure the treasury secretary will have to divest from all his holdings prior to taking office.
Posted on 5/21/16 at 8:23 am to Kramer26
quote:
If Trump wins Icahn would most likely be the treasury secretary. I don't believe they would let CHK declare bankruptcy. They would probably strike a deal to keep them in business. Although this is just speculation.
Ignoring your unlikely scenario of them magically "keeping" them in business, they would still have to make it a year to do so.
Posted on 5/21/16 at 9:29 am to Kramer26
quote:
Kramer26
I see this all of the time. You seem to be emotionally connected to the stock and are using anything you can grasp at to to justify purchasing that stock. Then you are trying to convince others it is a great thing.
I'm looking at the chart again, just for your sake. This stock, even without the issues, would not be at a point to by. There isn't one technial I can point to that says buy. They ended yesterday with a bearish engulfing, and bad signals. MACD,,,, no I just see nothing.
Posted on 5/21/16 at 9:53 am to Jjdoc
I wouldn't be evaluating E&P stocks in this market with technicals anyway.
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