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Started By
Message
re: WWYD as Wisconsin Coach?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:13 pm to TheSexecutioner
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:13 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
I explained why it had more merit than punting. It has zero merit as long as going for it is an option as well, which it is.
But here's the thing. It doesn't under any circumstances have any advantage over punting. Never. Ever.
Like I said, if Andersen came out and said he considered kneeling as opposed to punting or going for it, I'd call for his head immediately, and have him tarred and feathered and ran out of town, the idea is that dumb.
1
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:14 pm to Chucktown_Badger
I think punting was the way to go. Lots of things can happen and a break can go your way. Plus, you make sure you stay down 4.
The odds of Wisconsin getting it on 4th and 12 with that quarterback were right around 5%.
The odds of Wisconsin getting it on 4th and 12 with that quarterback were right around 5%.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:18 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
LSU being up 4 and LSU being up 7 is very different
It doubles your chances of winning. But in that level of desperation, that isn't that much. 7% chance of scoring down 7 is better than 3% chance of scoring down 4. So if you can find an advantage that can double your chances of scoring a TD, its worth conceding 3 points. I think a compressed field and kickoff return is such an advantage.
But yes, you are absolutely right that it needs to be factored in. My issue is that I think people over-estimate it because there is such a subconscious horror with giving the ball up inside your own 10 that people don't analyze the relevance of it to the specific situation.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:18 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
Like I said, if Andersen came out and said he considered kneeling as opposed to punting or going for it, I'd call for his head immediately, and have him tarred and feathered and ran out of town, the idea is that dumb.
good. we are in agreement.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:21 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
I think Andersen though, do we have a better chance to get 12 yards on one play, or stop them from getting a first.
well that's really embarrassing that your well compensated coach was setting up such a false dilemna in that situation.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:22 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
well that's really embarrassing that your well compensated coach was setting up such a false dilemna in that situation.
How was it a false dilemma?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:32 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Because they don't have equal payoffs, so its not simply a matter of which one is more likely.
If they convert the first down, they get the ball on at least the 20 with 3 timeouts and 1:30 on the clock. If they hold LSU to a 3 and out, they get the ball with worse field position, no timeouts, and 20 less seconds.
Perhaps irrelevant dilemna would be a better way of putting it than false dilemna, which I guess means leaving out an option.
If they convert the first down, they get the ball on at least the 20 with 3 timeouts and 1:30 on the clock. If they hold LSU to a 3 and out, they get the ball with worse field position, no timeouts, and 20 less seconds.
Perhaps irrelevant dilemna would be a better way of putting it than false dilemna, which I guess means leaving out an option.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:39 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
So what happens when you get a stop? Bring out Peyton Manning and drive 90 yards? You still are going to need a 3 and out and a touchdown drive regardless of how bad your quarterback sucks. I'd take my chances stopping LSU from the 10(easiest place on field for a 3 and out since you only have to defend 20 yards of field) and then recieving a kickoff rather than a punt that likely pins Wisconsin inside your own 15.
Would you not?
At that point in time, they had just gotten gashed right up the middle on the previous two drives. There was a chance that they maybe would not have been gashed again, but we saw on LSU's drive to end the game, that they would have.
So let's say without knowing for sure, they take a knee. Ball ends up on the what, the 7 yard line? LSU could run the ball right up the middle for four times and it would drain over half the clock. They could also do it three times, then on the fourth, PA rollout and at best it's a TD, at worst, it's an EZ touch back int.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:40 pm to TheSexecutioner
With how badly the Wisconsin QB was playing, a fake punt probably would have had a better chance at succeeding than just going for it.
The punt was probably the best option. Pray for a fumble or 3 and out while using all of the TOs.
The punt was probably the best option. Pray for a fumble or 3 and out while using all of the TOs.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 5:59 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:No it's not. We were NEVER going to PASS. We were going to run it whether we were at the 8 or the 48. The compressed field wouldn't have come into play, because the box was going to be loaded either way. The field doesn't get SKINNIER near the goal line, brah.
8 on a compressed field is a lot harder to get than 10 at midfield.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 6:01 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
I'm just illustrating that there was NOTHING gained by punting the ball.
Umm, what?
It was 4th and LONG in their own redzone. You have 3 timeouts. You know if you punt the ball, it gives you better field position if you stop the other team, and you know they are going to run 100% every down.
You punt the ball.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 6:34 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
I'm just illustrating that there was NOTHING gained by punting the ball.
You couldn't be more wrong. Are you so dense that after 7 pages of posters explaining why; you are still arguing your ridiculous illustration??? Accept that you are mistaken and learn from this experience by going back and reading this thread from the beginning. I was doing this
reading your responses on the first 2 pages.Posted on 9/4/14 at 7:10 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Obviously, going for it is an infinitely better option than kneeling it. I'm just illustrating that there was NOTHING gained by punting the ball.
Not true.
TD wins instead of ties.
But, the obvious right thing to do was to go for it. And, while you are stretching the point by saying that kneeling might be better than punting, the fact that there so little difference pretty much illustrates how bad of a decision Anderson made.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 7:15 pm to TheLSUriot
All of you saying there was a 100% chance LSU runs 3 times are straight up wrong. Teams pass all the time in that situation.
Teams would especially pass if they realize on 1st and 2nd down that the defense is selling out as if they don't even have to defend a deep route.
The difference between literally being unable to use more than 20 yards of field and the defense knowing you probably won't is bigger than y'all are claiming.
Teams would especially pass if they realize on 1st and 2nd down that the defense is selling out as if they don't even have to defend a deep route.
The difference between literally being unable to use more than 20 yards of field and the defense knowing you probably won't is bigger than y'all are claiming.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 7:19 pm to TheSexecutioner
99.999% would punt if that helps?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 7:20 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
All of you saying there was a 100% chance LSU runs 3 times are straight up wrong. Teams pass all the time in that situation.
Teams might, LSU doesn't.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 7:49 pm to TheSexecutioner
If you think LSU is going to pass up four with a minute to go, you're nuts. Of course, that was established on page one lol.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 8:21 pm to TheSexecutioner
The answer is punt. It's conventional wisdom, and coaches don't get fired for using conventional wisdom.
You can go against the grain, but you better be successful. When your job is on the line every week, going against the grain isn't an attractive option.
You can go against the grain, but you better be successful. When your job is on the line every week, going against the grain isn't an attractive option.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 8:29 pm to Fishhead
If the coach decides not to go for it, then they should have run out the back of the endzone and taken the safety. Yes, gives up points but it doesn't use as much time, you can still try to put them in their own territory with a kick or go for broke with an onside. TD will still win it for you and if you get the ball back (whether onside kick or 3 and out) your field position is likely infinitely better.
In my opinion, of course.
In my opinion, of course.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:54 pm to TheSexecutioner
This thread is like 2 pages without the stupid 'kneel down' troll.
Well played.
Well played.
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