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re: WWYD as Wisconsin Coach?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:48 pm to CheerWhine
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:48 pm to CheerWhine
quote:
The downside is that if you don't recover, LSU most likely gets it in field goal range, since you kick off from the 20. A made field goal is game over, since it becomes a 2-score game when you add the 2 points from the safety.
If you're punting, there isn't much of a difference in giving to the 2 points.
You'd be able to put the free kick out of FG range and have a chance to get the ball with better field position.
1
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:48 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
So why not just take a safety?
Certainly an option. With all three timeouts, would you onside kick? That odds of that succeeding are what, 10%? Then you still have to go nearly 70 yards. And if you don't get it the game is over.
Do you kick it deep? You're kicking from your own 20. LSU would have guys back to receive. They would not have improved their field position that much, if at all. An advantage here would be that the clock would not start until the LSU player touched the ball, as opposed to the clock starting on the snap if they would have punted from the 8.
Still, an option. Any option you choose in this scenario is going to give you a small chance of winning.
ETA: LSU started their final drive at their own 35 yard line. I seriously doubt by taking a safety Wisconsin would have flipped the field better than that.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:49 pm to TheSexecutioner
Punt
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:50 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
yep, totally correct. I still think 8 on a compressed field is a lot harder to get than 10 at midfield.
In theory, yes. But at that point in the game, with Wisconsin fully aware LSU will run three times? Probably a small effect, but not much.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:50 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
go for it on 4th and 12 (as low a percentage play as there is, just about) and end the game right there, or prolong it for at least 1 more series - give your guys a fighting chance for several more plays
Everybody is making this same error. The game does not end right there if Wisc turns it over on downs. They still need the same thing. A 3 and out and a touchdown drive. So punting does not prolong anything. It puts you in a roughly equivalent(I argue worse) position.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:50 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
Certainly an option. With all three timeouts, would you onside kick? That odds of that succeeding are what, 10%? Then you still have to go nearly 70 yards. And if you don't get it the game is over.
You would almost want LSU to try a long field goal in that situation.
quote:
They would not have improved their field position that much, if at all.
I disagree. It's a free kick plus the yards difference. It's easier to cover than a regular punt or kickoff
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:51 pm to GeauxTigerTM
Easy answer= go for it.
If you punt and give up one first down.....ball game.
If you go for it and don't make it then you give up one first down....ball game.
Holding them to a field goal would mean you still need a touchdown to win.
If you punt and give up one first down.....ball game.
If you go for it and don't make it then you give up one first down....ball game.
Holding them to a field goal would mean you still need a touchdown to win.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:53 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
I disagree. It's a free kick plus the yards difference. It's easier to cover than a regular punt or kickoff
LSU started their final drive on the 35.
If that dude punts it 50 yards in the air, that's still just to the LSU 30 yard line. Any return at all, and Wisconsin is worse off.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:54 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:
If you're punting, there isn't much of a difference in giving to the 2 points.
Yeah, there's really no difference between being down 4 or 6 if you were planning to kick it away. I was talking about trying an onside kick after the safety.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:56 pm to TheSexecutioner
You sound like the type of person who would rather go for it on 4th than punt any time of the game 
Your QB is playing one of the worst halves of a game ever and you arent converting a 4th and 12 on the ground. So you punt the ball, and try for a stop with around 1:15 left on the clock if it works, or you get a lucky fumble and have a great chance to score.
Kneeling is the worst option here. LSU would either score running the ball and you lose the game or run the ball 3 times, take all your timeouts, and kick a FG to go up by 7 and force you to drive the field just to tie.
Your QB is playing one of the worst halves of a game ever and you arent converting a 4th and 12 on the ground. So you punt the ball, and try for a stop with around 1:15 left on the clock if it works, or you get a lucky fumble and have a great chance to score.
Kneeling is the worst option here. LSU would either score running the ball and you lose the game or run the ball 3 times, take all your timeouts, and kick a FG to go up by 7 and force you to drive the field just to tie.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:57 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
In theory, yes. But at that point in the game, with Wisconsin fully aware LSU will run three times? Probably a small effect, but not much
Alright so maybe that balances out the extra 2 yards? Maybe I should have made option c run a QB sneak so that the scenario would be needing 10 yards either way. People would have even been even more confused than my hypothetical kneel though.
Regardless, I think that receiving a kickoff is the bigger benefit than the compressed field. Yeh, you can hope for a muff, but that's unlikely(impossible bc LSU didn't even put anyone back)but even if you get that or a fumble, you still have to drive ~40 yards with an incompetent offense.
Recieving a kickoff opens up a way to score without using the offense at all. I understand a big return is unlikely as well, but LSU had kicked one out and it's not that unlikely they could return it out to the 50 or so for a manageable with a minute left.
Really, to get a more precise answer, you would have to look at percentages of kicks returned vs % of muffs and % of fumbles on clock killing final drives, etc.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:59 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
well instead of wracking your brain, just read better. I don't think that is the right answer. I'd go for it. I just still think it would be better than punting.
Yea. You are dumb.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:00 pm to NotRight37
You guys giving the OP shite for the "kneel" option are either deliberately choosing to misunderstand or aren't thinking analytically. He only put that option there to illustrate that going for it, even if you don't make it, isn't necessarily a worse choice than punting. That said, the OP could have made the same point in a much less obscure way. Being smart isn't that valuable a quality if you can't clearly communicate your analysis (or pose your Socratic hypotheses in an unambiguous way that avoids confusion).
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:00 pm to chalupa
quote:
If they had any kind of passing attack, I'd say go for it and I think they would have under them circumstances. But, they didn't, that'd why they punted.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:00 pm to SuckThatTigerMD
quote:
You sound like the type of person who would rather go for it on 4th than punt any time of the game
Not any time, no. Probably more times than not however. Good read. I take it you are one of those who assumes the rigid "rule of thumb" on when to punt that coaches use is reliable?
LINK
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:02 pm to SG_Geaux
quote:
If they had any kind of passing attack, I'd say go for it and I think they would have under them circumstances. But, they didn't, that'd why they punted.
and then what? Devise a passing attack in the few minutes they would have before hopefully coming back on to the field.
Yeh, it would be better to have a passing attack than to not have a passing attack. But they were probably going to need some passing to win whether they punted or not.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:06 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:This is really the point. You can't say: "well, they suck at passing so they should punt," and then think they're going to get a 3 and out and magically find a passing game then. They needed a TD either way.
and then what? Devise a passing attack in the few minutes they would have before hopefully coming back on to the field.
Yeh, it would be better to have a passing attack than to not have a passing attack. But they were probably going to need some passing to win whether they punted or not.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:07 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
My reason for including kneeling is to represent whether you should still go for it if there was literally a 0% chance of converting.
quote:
well instead of wracking your brain, just read better. I don't think that is the right answer. I'd go for it. I just still think it would be better than punting.
That's seriously your rationale? A 4th and 12 is probably not doable, so just kneel the ball, lose a few yards doing so, and hand it over? Don't punt it and try to hold, don't take the safety, don't go for it, just kneel and give up?
All due respect, no coach at any level would ever in any game even discuss or consider that as an option. And if they even so much as had it cross their mind, they should be fired immediately and never be allowed to watch sports again.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:10 pm to nycajun
It was a low chance of converting 4th down, but Wisconsin had to get to the end zone no matter what, and at least going for it gives you a chance to continue the drive. Even if you don't make it but the defense holds, a field goal is still a one-score game. A touchdown by LSU would've looked worse in the final score, but an LSU first down turned out to be game over just the same.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 3:12 pm to GeauxTigerTM
Why punt? What are your odds at getting a turnover against a team that's going to run 3 straight times? How often in the past 3-5 years have our running backs fumbled the ball?
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