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re: What % of our run plays go for 3 or less yards?

Posted on 9/22/14 at 1:02 pm to
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
67589 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

Free food, the alcohol was great, everything


and a/c
Posted by Beef Supreme
Member since Apr 2008
1920 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Put #7 in and leave him in.


I agree. I just ran down all the rushes for each rb at lunch. LF has had 4 runs this season (11% of his carries) go for 20 yards or longer. KH only has 1 (2%) and DW has 1 (4%).

If LF gets a run over 10 yards it has gone for 20 or more each time. KH and DW both have 3 over 10, but as stated, only 1 each for 20.

Factoring in receptions LF leads all backs in yards per touch at 6.
Posted by Choupique19
The cheap seats
Member since Sep 2005
61784 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

ut we have played 4 games...why leave out the wisconsin game


Because Kenny Hilliard was the beneficiary of HUGE holes in the 4th quarter of that game. Fournette only got two carries, the missed pitch for -12 yards, and an option pitch on 3rd and 3 when the entire world knew we were running the ball. He caught the pitch and was immediately met by two defenders. As pointed out, through 3 quarters, he led the team in rushing.
Posted by GonePecan
Southeast of disorder
Member since Feb 2011
6086 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

This. He clearly separated himself as the best back. Dude ripped off a 20 yard run. He has homerun ability.

Every back on the field would've gained 20 yards through that hole. The Miss St. back would've scored.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26631 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

He was 7-38, with a long of 20.

So, 6 of his carries netted 18 yards.



Hilliard had 31 on 9 carries with a long of 9. That's 22 yards on 8 carries

That gives you

3 ypc
2.75 ypc

If i do it for SHSU and ULM, by taking out the longest run, you'd still get Fournette as the highest ypc every time minus Hilliard against ULM. Thing is, Fournette also had a 20 yard catch that was basically an extended handoff.

Since Wisconsin Fournette has had

40 yard run
27 yard run
24 yard run
20 yard run

15 yard reception
17 yard reception
20 yard reception

He is clearly our playmaker RB. Nobody else even comes close.

As a matter of fact, Fournette is tied for 46th in the country, in 20+ yard plays from scrimmage
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26631 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

LF hasn't lived up to the hype...sorry that is the truth. Doesn't break tackles or make people miss.


This is so bullshite. Fournette has broken plenty of tackles. He's juked a couple guys out of their shoes. Sorry you expect him to be all world behind that giant rugby scrum we call an offensive line. Watch some of Gurley's tape this year and tell me he isn't getting big arse holes to walk through. Michel too. Go watch Melvin Gordon's highlights and tell me if he had to sneak through the line just to gain yards.

Right now Fournette is our best RB period, and running him 7-10 times a game is fricking stupid. It's another reason why I want Harris in to shoot it to Fournette on a dump off pass.
Posted by SabiDojo
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
83929 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:16 pm to
Fournette is clearly our best back. It's not even close.
Posted by NorthshoreTiger76
Pelicans, Saints, & LSU Fan
Member since May 2009
80169 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:17 pm to
How many carries did Jennings have saturday?? was it 11??
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26631 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

Every back on the field would've gained 20 yards through that hole. The Miss St. back would've scored


We got holes like that consistently last year. You think Hill was running behind an OL like this last year? It may be the same players, but this isn't the same OL.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:18 pm to
A ton.

I keep on talking about this stat with Fournette, but it's really all the backs.

We can't consistently run the football. Take out Fournette's long run, and he averaged 3 yards/carry, with 5 of his 7 carries going for 3 yards or less.

Take our Hilliards' long run, and he had like 8 rushes for 21 yards.

Pretty terrible. Occasional long runs are not how you sustain drives in the SEC. We get 2 yards, 3 yards, 1 yard, 8 yards, no gain, 2 yards, 3 yards, 20 yards, 1 yard, no gain.

State was getting 5 yards, 7 yards, 4 yards, 10 yards, 5 yards, 4 yards, 2 yards, 9 yards, etc.

Huge difference. Yards per carry doesn't tell the whole story. Yeah, Fournette is averaging 5 yards/carry, but he has a ton that go for 2 yards or less.
This post was edited on 9/22/14 at 2:20 pm
Posted by LSUMurple
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2011
907 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:23 pm to
All of them.
Posted by Big EZ Tiger
Member since Jul 2010
24268 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

Because Kenny Hilliard was the beneficiary of HUGE holes in the 4th quarter of that game. Fournette only got two carries, the missed pitch for -12 yards, and an option pitch on 3rd and 3 when the entire world knew we were running the ball. He caught the pitch and was immediately met by two defenders. As pointed out, through 3 quarters, he led the team in rushing.


I personally think we should be seeing Fournette more and especially in the 2nd half when the D is wearing down. The coaches raved about how he doesn't get tired, but then he doesn't get a carry in the 2nd half??? We have to see what his natural talent can do.

However, he had a gigantic hole on that 20-yard run on Saturday. So if you're going to talk about the huge hole for Hilliard against Wisconsin, you can mention it for Fournette too. The RBs job is to find the hole (if there is one) and hit it with speed. If they do that, they've done their job well. Also, Fournette missed that pitch against Wisconsin. It wasn't anyone else's fault. He's only a true freshman though and mistakes happen.

Fournette appears to be our long threat and should be seeing more touches because of it.
Posted by Big EZ Tiger
Member since Jul 2010
24268 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

Fournette is clearly our best back. It's not even close.


Statistically it is very close. But with more carries (and decent blocking), it could be a very different story given his attributes.
Posted by GonePecan
Southeast of disorder
Member since Feb 2011
6086 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

We got holes like that consistently last year. You think Hill was running behind an OL like this last year? It may be the same players, but this isn't the same OL.

Not sure what this has to do with my post.
Posted by mmcgrath
Indianapolis
Member since Feb 2010
35389 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:31 pm to
I'm with trout. Let me fix it for you:
quote:

Last 4 games:

Kenny Hilliard - 18 carries/110 yards, 9 carries/30 yards, 12 carries/50 yards, 11 carries/55 yards
Leonard Fournette - 8 carries/18 yards, 7 carries/38 yards, 10 carries/52 yards, 13 carries/92 yards


Now let's take out the scrub teams we played:
quote:


Kenny Hilliard - 18 carries/110 yards, 11 carries/55 yards
Leonard Fournette - 8 carries/18 yards, 13 carries/92 yards
This post was edited on 9/22/14 at 2:34 pm
Posted by GonePecan
Southeast of disorder
Member since Feb 2011
6086 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:34 pm to
I think you left in one of the scrub teams and took out Miss. St. I think this should be Lf's stats vs. better comp.
Leonard Fournette - 8 carries/18 yards, 7 carries/38 yards
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
18136 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

quote:Fournet averaged about 5 ypc vs MSU


quote:

He was 7-38, with a long of 20. So, 6 of his carries netted 18 yards.


I'm no statistician, but the LF pumpers always point to his average. But particularly when the sample size is small, you have to eliminate the outliers. When you take away the one 20 yard run, he had 6 carries for 18 yards. Not good.

And yes, I know I have to give him some credit for the 20 yarder, but I didn't see anything spectacular in that run. If he'd have juked the defender that made the tackle, or run him over, and continued running, then that's something. But merely running through a big hole and straight into a defender that tackles him just isn't that big a deal to me.

Still waiting for the "big moment" with LF. Haven't seen it yet (or even close to it).
Posted by Big EZ Tiger
Member since Jul 2010
24268 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:39 pm to
The bottom line is that our coaches and and O-line have to STEP IT UP. We could see what Fournette is capable of on more carries if we had more to give. There are too many 3 and outs and this ain't gonna change if we remain completely predictable and the RBs have no hole to speak of when they hit the line. Any RB would struggle with those things working against them.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26631 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

Not sure what this has to do with my post.


Seemed like you tried to use it as a slight. We'll we got those holes consistently last year and Magee and Hill consistently broke off long runs because of it.

I guarantee that if Fournette was the lucky RB to get that first carry when Wisconsin finally parted like the red sea, this discussion about "best back" wouldn't be one.

Like Palmer said (paraphrasing), this isn't peewee. Everybody doesn't need a turn.
Posted by SabiDojo
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
83929 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

But particularly when the sample size is small, you have to eliminate the outliers. When you take away the one 20 yard run, he had 6 carries for 18 yards. Not good.


Eliminating the outliers doesn't work with RB's. Look at Barry Sanders.
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