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re: Stealing third with no outs.

Posted on 2/21/16 at 5:44 pm to
Posted by ehidal1
Chief Boot Knocka
Member since Dec 2007
37133 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 5:44 pm to
quote:

hbuc88

I thought I smelled pussy in this thread
Posted by Tigahs1977
Member since Feb 2016
1073 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 6:59 pm to
Was sitting right there. He was livid with Deichmann on Friday night. Today he was not as mad with Freeman but still cherry tomato red. I agree with the poster above that part of learning to steal bases with a green light is when. I enjoy aggression more than being hesitant, but you don't have to be foot to the metal every single play, it should be dictated by the situation. Freeman did it while ahead, Deichmann in the beginning of a game that could have very well been lost because of the mistake. I'd rather them do it now and get chewed by CPM so they don't do it against A&M or Florida when that run could really make or break! Regardless very happy with the outcome of this weekend. A lot of guys stepped up and gained confidence, will be huge going forward!
Posted by Melvin Spellvin
proud dad of 2 A&M honor grads
Member since Jul 2015
1676 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:16 pm to
The fact that players at this level are making fundamental base running mistakes is inexcusable and reflection of their coaching or a lack thereof throughout their career.

Three questions each player and coach should answer BEFORE every pitch.

How many outs?
Where are the runners?
What is my responsibility?

Call time if you don't know the answer to all three questions so everyone is all the same page.
Posted by CottonWasKing
4,8,15,16,23,42
Member since Jun 2011
28602 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:35 pm to
quote:

How times did we hear that this team needs to manufacture runs this year. Now when they are aggressive people want to complain. thats a hard throw for most college catchers.


You're on second with no outs. Then run has been manufactured. Get a basehit. Get a bunt and a fly ball. A passed ball and a fly ball. A slow roller to the right side of the field and a fly ball.

All of those situations score you from second. There is absolutely ZERO reason to steal third with no outs unless the catcher is missing an arm completely.

If they have an amputee then sure steal third with no outs. If you look behind home plate and see two arms then Stay. Your. arse. On. Second.
This post was edited on 2/21/16 at 7:36 pm
Posted by Goatofgoats
Sout Loosyanna
Member since Feb 2016
224 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

unless the catcher is missing an arm completely.



This made me laugh.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84752 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:47 pm to
quote:

I don't consider attempting to steal third with no outs as aggression. With one out? Sure that's aggression. With no outs? That's idiocy. The rewards don't outweigh the risks. Especially in a close game like Friday


I'm not sure of the situations as I wasn't able to watch the games this weekend, but there has been a shift in MLB against some of the conventional wisdom on the base paths and it may be making its way into the college game as well. Stealing 3rd on a left handed pitcher is fairly easy, and stealing 3rd with no outs or two outs is actually much more efficient than stealing with 1 out.

Additionally, the expected run value in MLB and the general success rate on stealing 3rd base (about 72%) would suggest you should steal 3rd base with no outs.

ETA: I was using some skewed Expected Run Value numbers. If you have a success rate of stealing third that is higher than 78%, you should steal 3rd with no outs. That isn't outrageous considering the MLB average is 72%.
This post was edited on 2/21/16 at 8:00 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84752 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:49 pm to
quote:

imo you should never try to steal third with no outs. it can very well cost you the game and it damn near did Friday night. its really poor base running.


Depending on the bunting/hitting ability of the hitter and the base running ability of the guy on 2nd, stealing 3rd with no outs isn't necessarily something that should be completely written off in all situations.
Posted by Slippin Jimmy
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2016
60 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:50 pm to
I agree with this but there can be exceptions. For instance, if you're on 2nd with no or 1 outs and there's a lefty batting with a hitter's count situation. Signal the batter to intentionally swing and miss the next pitch so the catcher has to avoid the batter's motion in order to get a shot of throwing the stealer out. The other team doesn't really expect this too often even though it takes big balls to play this kind of small ball
Posted by mikelbr
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2008
47466 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 7:50 pm to
quote:


I don't mind aggressiveness on the basepaths. Better than timidity.


Exactly. CPM always does this. Are people really thinking this is new? He's the most aggressive base running/stealing coach in the SEC.
We have been called out at home more than anyone(just a guess).


We may live or die by it but, with our athletes, he bets on the former. I love it.

Fans only hate it when it fails. End of story.
This post was edited on 2/21/16 at 7:52 pm
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:05 pm to
You can absolutely make the third out at home.
Posted by ChEgrad
Member since Nov 2012
3261 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:09 pm to
Theoretically, stealing 3rd is easier than stealing 2nd.

LINK
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84752 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

There is absolutely ZERO reason to steal third with no outs unless the catcher is missing an arm completely.


Not true at all actually. You don't still 3rd at random, but if you get to certain points in your primary lead and/or you've got a great read on the pitcher, you should do it.

Dee Gordon was 8 of 9 on his attempts to steal 3rd base in 2015. The numbers say a guy like that should steal 3rd with 0 outs AND he should steal 3rd with 2 outs.

Stealing 3rd at Dee Gordon's rate would produce .11 more runs than staying at 2nd base would, on average.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84752 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:15 pm to
quote:

Basic baseball 101 don't make the first or last out at third or home.



Basic Baseball 101 is what you teach to a team full of 12 year olds who don't have the wherewithal to understand who is above the standard rules. As you get older and more developed, you should begin to understand that there are situations where your ability will allow you to buck the status quo.
Posted by Captain Crown
Member since Jun 2011
50687 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:17 pm to
Greed
Posted by ToulatownTiger
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2012
4597 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:18 pm to
I agree with your baseball 101 except last out at home. You almost always send the guy with 2 outs home
Posted by Landry59
Member since Jul 2014
69 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:22 pm to
Don't we have a third base coach?
Posted by coondaddy21
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2012
3222 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:23 pm to
When I played college baseball, I had the green light to steal any base at anytime and ended up the season 48 for 48 in Stolen bases.

There are more ways to score a run from third base as there are from second. A sac fly will score, a ground ball will score you and a passed ball will score you. None of those will score you if you are standing on second base.

If you are adept at running the bases, you trust that player to know when to steal. That doesn't mean they should always do it but you give the green light to your fastest, most skilled baserunners.
Posted by hbuc88
San Antonio
Member since Dec 2009
1174 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:24 pm to
quote:

I thought I smelled pussy in this thread


Let me guess, your mother's.
Posted by Lonnie4LSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
9525 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 8:36 pm to
Stealing 3nd is generally easier than taking 2nd. Especially if the pitcher/batter is rt. handed. With the 2nd and 3rd basemen playing off the bag, you can get a much better lead than you do with the 1st base guy sitting on the bag.

It's not really some kinda bad play.


This post was edited on 2/21/16 at 9:06 pm
Posted by LSU92
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2008
2435 posts
Posted on 2/21/16 at 9:05 pm to
[quote]Dee Gordon was 8 of 9 on his attempts to steal 3rd base in 2015. The numbers say a guy like that should steal 3rd with 0 outs AND he should steal 3rd with 2 outs. Stealing 3rd at Dee Gordon's rate would produce .11 more runs than staying at 2nd base would, on average. ]

I don't think Dee Gordon has any eligibility left.

This post was edited on 2/21/16 at 9:06 pm
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