re: Stealing third with no outs.

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I don't think Dee Gordon has any eligibility left.

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I'm just using elite MLB runners. Guys like Deichmann are comparable on the collegiate level when you account for generally less talented pitchers/catchers in college as well.

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sorry, there is no way in hell stealing third is successful 72% of the time. in college for sure. that's unmitigated bull shite.

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I'll look for collegiate numbers but they're incredibly difficult to find.

70.85% for the 2009 season in MLB

Baseball Prospectus article says 72% success rate in MLB from 1998-2002

Unmitigated bull shite huh?

ETA: In 2009, the success rate for stealing third with 2 outs was actually 88.5%. Stealing third with two outs is one of the most against the grain moves you an make in baseball, but given the expected run values in the 2009 season and the success rate, it actually produced approximately .01 more runs.

You can argue all you'd like about whether or not you like it, but the facts are that it was/is the right decision if you can be that successful.

ETA.2: You may feel as though that is a statistically insignificant benefit, and you may be right, but to act like it is some sort of steadfast, you should never, ever, ever do it rules is absurd.

I'm not a fan of it, but I would rather CPM err on the aggressive side.

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Basic baseball 101 don't make the first or last out at third.

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Corrected that for you! This rule only applies for 3rd base. I agree you never make the 1st out at home but you need to always be aggressive with 2 outs in sending runners to the plate. You really don't want to make the 2nd out at the plate either but as a 3rd base coach you need to be more aggressive sending runners to the plate as the number of outs increase.