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re: Stealing... How effective?
Posted on 3/8/16 at 8:00 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 3/8/16 at 8:00 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
If a guy reaches 2B 44 times and only scores 3 of those times you've got bigger problems than the 4 outs it cost you. And if 43 successful steals only bet you 3 runs then it's safe to say that those 4 outs didn't cost you any runs.
You're missing my point. I'm not saying that the runner doesn't score, I'm asking how often does he score only because he stole the base and where he wouldn't have scored had he not stolen the base?
3
Posted on 3/8/16 at 8:03 pm to SlapahoeTribe
So how many times does he score on a hit when at 2B or on a sac fly or grounder to the middle after stealing 3B?
A lot.
A lot.
Posted on 3/8/16 at 8:03 pm to SlapahoeTribe
Okay.
How many times does he not get out on a double play? I have to assume that there are more ground balls to the Infield instead of a double that would have scored him from first.
How many times does he not get out on a double play? I have to assume that there are more ground balls to the Infield instead of a double that would have scored him from first.
Posted on 3/8/16 at 8:05 pm to SlapahoeTribe
quote:
You're missing my point. I'm not saying that the runner doesn't score, I'm asking how often does he score only because he stole the base and where he wouldn't have scored had he not stolen the base?
Well...seeing as one takes you out of a force out...I would imagine a lot more.
But to answer the entire question...I'm sure there are stats on this but I'd say around 50-75% more.
Posted on 3/8/16 at 9:03 pm to SlapahoeTribe
Stealing puts pressure on the fielding team. What does a pitcher do when a runner is on first? Have you ever seen a pitcher miss the throw to 1st? Where does 1B play when a runner is on 1st? If you get your leadoff hitter on base, and he happens to be one of your better baserunners, you steal 2nd and can score without a base hit. The fielding team may also shift alignments to be in position to make a play at home. When a team shifts players, they are conceding some part of the field.
When you think about it, SB's is usually one of the offensive stats with a positive success rate or above 50%. Freeman and Fraley steal bases with ~75% success rate. This is why a team with great pitching and a solid defense will typically be in a position to win games. They can generate enough offense to win those close games.
When you think about it, SB's is usually one of the offensive stats with a positive success rate or above 50%. Freeman and Fraley steal bases with ~75% success rate. This is why a team with great pitching and a solid defense will typically be in a position to win games. They can generate enough offense to win those close games.
Posted on 3/8/16 at 10:21 pm to SlapahoeTribe
Its hard to get an exact value, but this article below references 70% success rate for it to be effective, and that number seems similar to one i've heard before. Now, this is based on historical MLB data. I doubt this data exists for the college game. But with more offense and more wild pitches, walks, lack of good defense,etc. I'd imagine you need to be closer to 75 or 80% for it to be worth it.
LINK
This link shows 70-75%
LINK
LINK
This link shows 70-75%
LINK
This post was edited on 3/8/16 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 3/8/16 at 11:35 pm to josh336
quote:
LINK
This link shows 70-75%
LINK
This pretty much is what I was looking for. Thanks.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 7:23 am to SlapahoeTribe
quote:
Stealing... How effective?
Depends on what you're stealing. Stay away from banks (they almost always catch you). I recommend credit card fraud or politics.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 7:27 am to Oyster
quote:
Effectiveness depends on the player stealing.
This and who the catcher is and less so who the pitcher is.
If you have a great base stealer on first, a slow windup pitcher, and a catcher with a weak arm...you should almost always steal.
If any of those aren't true, especially the catcher/base runner portions, you shouldn't steal IMO.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 7:39 am to SlapahoeTribe
Well, let's flip this around. Say you don't steal and now you have to bunt everybody over. Wouldn't that be way more outs with no runs scored unless someone produces a base hit just like when someone steals. The point of stealing is trying to avoid giving up the easy out and pressure the defense to make a mistake. Although sometimes the bunt is successful, it is an out more times than not.Sometimes you win sometimes you lose
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 8:29 am
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:16 am to chipdouglas96
quote:
Saber metrics say don't steal
Not true in the least.
As someone has already linked though, research shows the success rate must be 70-75% to justify the risk.
This post was edited on 3/9/16 at 8:17 am
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:25 am to SlapahoeTribe
it's only effective if you don't get caught
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:26 am to lsu2006
quote:A successful one sure does.
It moves you 90 feet closer to scoring, which is never not a good thing.
Posted on 3/9/16 at 8:38 am to chipdouglas96
quote:
Saber metrics say don't steal
In fairness, the data was run on major league games, which is a horse of a different color. The catchers are better, the pitchers are better. Running on college catchers is a different matter all together.
Posted on 3/10/16 at 9:35 am to therick711
Yeah mlb studies on this subject could not be less relevant when comparing to college baseball.
Posted on 3/10/16 at 9:37 am to SlapahoeTribe
quote:
Stealing... How effective?
LSU is 24/33 for 72.7%.
So I would say for LSU, 72.7% of the time, it works every time.
Posted on 3/10/16 at 9:47 am to chipdouglas96
quote:
squash the bug type of baseball guy also
and whats wrong with squashing the bug?.. are you a lift and run guy?
Posted on 3/10/16 at 9:53 am to TigerFan55555
quote:
and whats wrong with squashing the bug?
Doesn't transfer weight forward. Makes the batter all rotational. Pretty serious matter nowadays.
Posted on 3/10/16 at 9:56 am to Cuz413
quote:
Doesn't transfer weight forward. Makes the batter all rotational. Pretty serious matter nowadays.
when you turn the foot first after the lite landing stride you transfer weight into the stiff front leg... try it... when you transfer weight forward (or run at it you are the easiest hitter in the world to throw to..
Posted on 3/10/16 at 9:58 am to TigerFan55555
Stealing bases, with the right players, in the right situation, does a world of good.
There is so many advantages to trying to take a base. It moves you 90 ft. closer, which allows a run to score off of a base hit. It takes away the double play ball. It puts pressure on the pitcher/catcher if they know there is a threat to steal. It forces the pitcher to change pitches he can throw, if there is a runner who may take a bag. It gives you the option of hit-and-run, which will open up holes in the infield, giving you a higher chance to get an infield base hit.
All of that out weighs the opportunity of getting an out. If you are taking extra bases at a high percentage, then by all means, take the chance.
There is so many advantages to trying to take a base. It moves you 90 ft. closer, which allows a run to score off of a base hit. It takes away the double play ball. It puts pressure on the pitcher/catcher if they know there is a threat to steal. It forces the pitcher to change pitches he can throw, if there is a runner who may take a bag. It gives you the option of hit-and-run, which will open up holes in the infield, giving you a higher chance to get an infield base hit.
All of that out weighs the opportunity of getting an out. If you are taking extra bases at a high percentage, then by all means, take the chance.
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