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Message
Remaining schedule - a realistic look at the numbers
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:31 pm
Let's try to be objective about the slog for the Tigers that begins on Saturday:
@ Alabama - Although I think Bama is probably at least a slight favorite, I'll be optimistic and put LSU at 66% chance to win.
Arkansas - they really do seem pathetic, so I'll put them at 90%.
@ Ole Miss - Boy, I'd like to say this is a layup, but it clearly isn't. Still, I'll be optimistic and say 70% chance of the victory.
eaTme - Anything could happen, but I'm going to say 70% as well.
That brings the conditional probability of LSU finishing the regular season undefeated to ~29%. Not very encouraging. And I would argue that it is not at all a conservative estimation.
Let's just further optimistically assume 66% of beating UF in the SEC Title Game. That leaves you with 19% chance of being undefeated.
Pretty sobering.
Now, there are clearly alternate scenarios that allow a 1-loss LSU team to still make the dance, but I have a hard time believing that one of them is losing the SEC Title game - i.e. I just don't think the committee will be willing to overlook a loss that late if there are still a lot of unbeatens.
That means the Tigers would have to rely on some fairly unlikely scenarios to still advance to the title game after dropping an SEC game.
@ Alabama - Although I think Bama is probably at least a slight favorite, I'll be optimistic and put LSU at 66% chance to win.
Arkansas - they really do seem pathetic, so I'll put them at 90%.
@ Ole Miss - Boy, I'd like to say this is a layup, but it clearly isn't. Still, I'll be optimistic and say 70% chance of the victory.
eaTme - Anything could happen, but I'm going to say 70% as well.
That brings the conditional probability of LSU finishing the regular season undefeated to ~29%. Not very encouraging. And I would argue that it is not at all a conservative estimation.
Let's just further optimistically assume 66% of beating UF in the SEC Title Game. That leaves you with 19% chance of being undefeated.
Pretty sobering.
Now, there are clearly alternate scenarios that allow a 1-loss LSU team to still make the dance, but I have a hard time believing that one of them is losing the SEC Title game - i.e. I just don't think the committee will be willing to overlook a loss that late if there are still a lot of unbeatens.
That means the Tigers would have to rely on some fairly unlikely scenarios to still advance to the title game after dropping an SEC game.
20
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:36 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:37 pm to Big Scrub TX
You should rename this thread to "Remaining schedule- a guess with made up numbers"
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:38 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:38 pm to LumbermanRon
quote:
You should rename this thread to "Remaining schedule- a guess with made up numbers"
Clearly you have to make some projections - why not with actual numbers? Feel free to raise/lower any of the inputs.
Even if you raise Arky to 100% and all the others to 80% (which, I think, anyone reasonable would admit is optimistic), then you still get only to 40%. Those are the facts. Why should we be afraid to face them?
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:44 pm to Big Scrub TX
CSB
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:44 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
That brings the conditional probability of LSU finishing the regular season undefeated to ~29%.
Now do the same thing for Alabama, who you gave a 34% chance to beat LSU, and Ole Miss, who you gave a 30% chance to beat LSU.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:52 pm to chilge1
quote:
Now do the same thing for Alabama, who you gave a 34% chance to beat LSU, and Ole Miss, who you gave a 30% chance to beat LSU.
Yes...and?
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:02 pm to Big Scrub TX
ESPN claims there's only a 6% chance of LSU being unbeaten.
Now I don't know whom to believe.
Now I don't know whom to believe.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:06 pm to liquid rabbit
quote:
ESPN claims there's only a 6% chance of LSU being unbeaten.
Now I don't know whom to believe.
Well, let's use the numbers that I think are more realistic:
Bama - 45%
OM - 60%
Arky - 85%
TAMU - 70%
UF - 55%
That comes out to about 9%...
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:07 pm to Big Scrub TX
These are Bill Connelly's numbers as of last week for all the SEC west teams. Based off of S&P+
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:14 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Clearly you have to make some projections - why not with actual numbers? Feel free to raise/lower any of the inputs.
Except you can already find these percentages that were ascertained through actual statistical analysis. They essentially determine where your team falls statistically, and then compare that against the schedule. When they look at an opponent they determine what an average team would likely do, and then make that prediction based on your team.
Sure, it is highly flawed. However it is much better than pulling arbitrary percentages out of thin air.
Eta: See the post above.
This post was edited on 11/4/15 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:16 pm to OneMoreTime
If LSU loses 1.6 games, I won't be happy.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:31 pm to Bmath
quote:
Except you can already find these percentages that were ascertained through actual statistical analysis. They essentially determine where your team falls statistically, and then compare that against the schedule. When they look at an opponent they determine what an average team would likely do, and then make that prediction based on your team.
Sure, it is highly flawed. However it is much better than pulling arbitrary percentages out of thin air.
Well, I don't agree that my numbers were "arbitrary" -but OK. Let's use BC's numbers. They put you at 10%...headed into the SEC Title game.
The point of the thread stands: any realistic projection of the Tigers' chances of going undefeated yields a pretty soberingly low number. And unfortunately, Bama probably actually has a higher likelihood of getting into that playoff.
ETA: Or, stated differently, even if you assume 90% LSU wins next 5 games, that STILL only yields 59% chance of unbeaten. It's just really really hard to do.
This post was edited on 11/4/15 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:34 pm to Big Scrub TX
my god, the anguish you people put yourselves through.
Just watch and enjoy the freaking games. At the end of the year, we'll see if we're undefeated or not.
I've never understood the obsession with predictions. Just be patient and watch it all play out. All this guesswork is just a waste of energy.
Just watch and enjoy the freaking games. At the end of the year, we'll see if we're undefeated or not.
I've never understood the obsession with predictions. Just be patient and watch it all play out. All this guesswork is just a waste of energy.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:38 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Well, I don't agree that my numbers were "arbitrary" -but OK. Let's use BC's numbers.
You may not agree, but they are arbitrary because you use no numerical basis. The numbers are simply coming from a gut feeling. While I'm not arguing if your predictions are off base, I find it laughable the way you are defending them.
Regardless, it will be tough for LSU to win out. I think that it is still possible, and I will feel more certain if LSU can beat Bama on Saturday.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:40 pm to Big Scrub TX
Of course the numbers get more favorable with every win. I like our chances because we play a low risk style of ball. Great offensive line and Fournette can move the chains on anyone.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:43 pm to Big Scrub TX
I think you're high on Bama, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Got A&M nailed IMHO.
This post was edited on 11/4/15 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:43 pm to Bmath
quote:
but they are arbitrary because you use no numerical basis.
Sure I did. I used SoS and records of opponents - as well as considerations of home/away.
quote:
I find it laughable the way you are defending them.
Forget defending them - simply flip them to wildly optimistic and look at how low the number still is.
quote:
Regardless, it will be tough for LSU to win out. I think that it is still possible, and I will feel more certain if LSU can beat Bama on Saturday.
Agreed on all. I just don't see any point in being outraged (not you) that Bama is getting more "favorable treatment", when the reality is they are probably just in a better situation. It's sucky and I hate it...but it's true.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 2:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
simply flip them to wildly optimistic and look at how low the number still is.
and yet the odds of LSU going undefeated are infinitely better than any other team in the SEC.
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