Rabalais is wrong; 2018 floor is 10

Love me some Scott Rabalais, but his August LSU prognosis is full of hot air...the floor is 10 wins, bowl game included. The ceiling 12 wins...read on.

Defense will keep us in every game, decide a few. All American defensive talent at two levels (GW, DW; three counting RL) underpinned by legit front seven depth and a strong secondary (even w/o KF, NCAA be damned) is compelling this year. This defense will be special.

FG kicking can’t be worse (I hope), and indications are that CT could be pretty darn good. QB play will be better this year no matter who starts...don’t mean this as a slight to DE, rather a nod to the very real handicap of not being able to take the top off the defense when it was repeatedly there (i.e. Bama game). I personally think it’ll be JB, plus LN in certain packages. O-line will be improved (yes, improved) and RB play sufficiently productive to take pressure off of QB and O-line (CEH has a good year, CC solid freshman campaign and LF more handy than we might expect).

However, the 10-win floor is more about chemistry than talent. We lost to Troy between the ears, not the sidelines. No offense to Troy, they were better than half of the SEC last year, just not the Tigers. Our most talented player was a drama filled distraction throughout the season, but especially so early on. Our second most talented player was injured earlier on. The absence of their first-round physical contribution, coupled with a lack of clear team leader), distracting coaching staff, and poor on field chemistry made for the very clear malaise of Syc, Moo St, and Troy games. The dysfunctional nature of CEO/CMC relationship was certainly a head wind, but we should have beaten Troy irrespective. Toss in a FG or two and we were at 10 wins last year. Moreover, re-look the Bama stats to find we accrued more 1st Downs, total yards, and TOP.

Ask yourself, are we better this year than last? The defense for sure, if only based on depth...but there’s much more to like about CDA’s fourth squad. I think the offense will be better too given that no matter who starts at QB, we will put over-the-top pressure on opposing secondaries complimented by legit deep threat receivers.

This year will be different. This year is about players who will demand more from each other by and through personal example. Look for FM, DW, RL, BF, GW, JG and AD to emerge as leaders...JB too.

The floor is 10...the ceiling 12-1, after SEC ‘ship. My bet: 11-2. And to be clear, the 2 losses does not include the gumps.