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Started By
Message
re: Poche pitching tomorrow per Mainieri
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:49 pm to Number 31
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:49 pm to Number 31
quote:
You don't need to demean my reasoning. We can agree to disagree like adults without bickering.
FWIW, I fully agree about keeping Gilbert in the pen and not starting him.
All I said was you're lacking context, which you were, because you framed it like I wasn't considering other things.
Was it the chief part?
0
Posted on 6/1/17 at 10:49 pm to AtlantaLSUfan
I'm not normally one to say I told you so, but to all those that said this would never happen: I fricking told you so. We want all three starters to pitch this weekend.
This whole board bitched and bitched about not having a third starter and now that we have one we want to strategize as if we don't. Makes no fricking sense.
This whole board bitched and bitched about not having a third starter and now that we have one we want to strategize as if we don't. Makes no fricking sense.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 6/2/17 at 2:09 am to The Boat
Agree, but not a huge issue to have a couple of pitchers ready as the weather picture becomes as certain as possible in south Louisiana. If conditions a few hours before game time are favorable for Poche to get 5 innings in, I would be ok with starting him, if not, go with Petrerson and if the game is tied or worse entering a rain delay before the fifth, bring Poche for a couple of innings to earn a cheap win. and still have him available for Monday if necessary. Would like to maximize his chances of a record without jeopardizing the ovearall team result
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:24 am to Fonpaul
I don't post much, but in reading all of these, it struck me that maybe there is no bad way to do it?
Nice position to be in for a college bball team really. I mean can it be good to have too many arms to feed?
At the end of the day, any of the mentioned pitchers starting would probably work out and be ok for the Supers.
I wasn't a pitcher so I don't know the impact to Walker were he not to pitch, but I know he'd still get side work whether in a game or not.
Nice position to be in for a college bball team really. I mean can it be good to have too many arms to feed?
At the end of the day, any of the mentioned pitchers starting would probably work out and be ok for the Supers.
I wasn't a pitcher so I don't know the impact to Walker were he not to pitch, but I know he'd still get side work whether in a game or not.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:31 am to LSU_USMC
What I don't like about PM's reasoning is that it's like he's putting a 3rd game in Omaha above every game prior to it. He's saying that he doesn't want to risk not having Walker throw in two weeks. And I understand that. But are we really saying that we'll be in a "bad" situation if we make it to a third game in Omaha without Walker needing to start? That would be great actually.
I want us to do what we have to do to win this regional. And I think that means not wasting Poche on Texas Southern.
I want us to do what we have to do to win this regional. And I think that means not wasting Poche on Texas Southern.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:35 am to ell_13
Is post season Ell about to come out?
We have had a season of pretty logical posting from you, but now that its post season time the claws are about to come out?
We have had a season of pretty logical posting from you, but now that its post season time the claws are about to come out?
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:36 am to ell_13
People are so wrong on this. We threw Poche twice in 2016 regionals then he didn't have it in the supers and our season was over.
Utah Valley wasn't awesome but we had to be careful with them. Everyone was good with it. This is the lowest RPI in LSU regional history. It's a bad move.
Walker is a freshman and has thrown 100 pitch games all season. If we only gets a few relief innings because we sailed thru our regional - that's not a problem!
Utah Valley wasn't awesome but we had to be careful with them. Everyone was good with it. This is the lowest RPI in LSU regional history. It's a bad move.
Walker is a freshman and has thrown 100 pitch games all season. If we only gets a few relief innings because we sailed thru our regional - that's not a problem!
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:36 am to ell_13
quote:
I want us to do what we have to do to win this regional. And I think that means not wasting Poche on Texas Southern.
I think if we're charting regional win probability based on how the rotation is set up, starting Poche in game 1 is probably at like an 80-85%, while starting Gilbert or Peterson would put it at like a 87-92%.
I really don't think the odds change that much.
I definitely agree with you that Walker could use some rest and I would prefer to see Peterson getting the start today. But I don't think starting Poche is a terrible move. And I can't totally disagree with Mainieri's logic on why considering we don't have the toughest road this weekend.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:41 am to AtlantaLSUfan
quote:Utah Valley was a threat. TSU isn't. The whole reason we have a 3rd/4th starter is so that this situation doesn't happen. Where we don't HAVE to throw Poche twice to win a regional.
People are so wrong on this. We threw Poche twice in 2016 regionals then he didn't have it in the supers and our season was over.
Utah Valley wasn't
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:42 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:I think I'm being logical.
We have had a season of pretty logical posting from you, but now that its post season time the claws are about to come out?
I'm saying I understand the plan but yet disagree and giving my reasons. I haven't lost my mind... yet...
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:47 am to ell_13
Let's fire CPM and hire Ell as LSU's coach. He is always right and will defend his position at all cost to the bitter end.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:49 am to ell_13
Well I get all the points. Every run to a championship you can point to points in time where risk was assumed. If TSU is that bad and there's no harm to moving the rotation, I understand whole staffing TSU given the metrics you all applied. That's a manageable risk and if it helps set us up for the Super I say do it (we have to obviously win a Super to win a natty). You'd still have the regular rotation available if TSU somehow goes Coastal on us.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:50 am to dbonnett
You can either be a little bitch and make posts like this or actually try and discuss your position if, that is, you even have the mental capacity to have one.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:54 am to ell_13
So, I've got my spreadsheet set up that I can just plug in team stats and get a Team Base Runs output that I can plug into a Pythagorean calculation and get a win percentage.
Where I'm struggling on how to apply it is there are 4 sets of numbers. Base runs for and against for each team. I want to make one win percentage that takes into account all 4 numbers, but I can only think of a way to do two at a time.
Any ideas?
ETA: For instance, LSU vs TSU based on Team Base Runs For, LSU would win 66% of the time. But that doesn't tell the whole story. I don't think it really even tells half the story.
Where I'm struggling on how to apply it is there are 4 sets of numbers. Base runs for and against for each team. I want to make one win percentage that takes into account all 4 numbers, but I can only think of a way to do two at a time.
Any ideas?
ETA: For instance, LSU vs TSU based on Team Base Runs For, LSU would win 66% of the time. But that doesn't tell the whole story. I don't think it really even tells half the story.
This post was edited on 6/2/17 at 8:56 am
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:55 am to LSU_USMC
quote:I just don't understand the argument that it's some huge problem if Walker doesn't throw this weekend. It's like people think 2 weeks off is much different from 1. Like it's suddenly going to ruin Walker's ability to pitch. We all understand that going 0-2 or 2-0 in the super means Walker doesn't pitch there right? And no one has a problem with that (the 2-0 scenario obviously). People are making way too big of a deal out of it.
That's a manageable risk and if it helps set us up for the Super I say do it (we have to obviously win a Super to win a natty).
Posted on 6/2/17 at 8:58 am to ell_13
quote:
I just don't understand the argument that it's some huge problem if Walker doesn't throw this weekend. It's like people think 2 weeks off is much different from 1.
AND Trent Forshag will still be around during the Supers, even if it only goes two games.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 9:01 am to ell_13
It isnt a huge problem. People are over thinking it. It isnt like Walker won't throw for 2 weeks straight. He will still get work.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 9:08 am to ProjectP2294
Posted on 6/2/17 at 9:09 am to LSU_USMC
quote:That's the point I made a few days ago.
It isnt like Walker won't throw for 2 weeks straight. He will still get work.
And I also said this: No matter who we start or what the plan is, the weather is going to frick it up anyway.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 9:17 am to ell_13
quote:
He adds the "offensive" and "defensive" win% together and subtracts 0.500.
That would give LSU an .828 win percentage against TSU using the Team Base Runs Pythagorean win pct numbers.
It's not perfect, but I think it gives us a pretty good approximation of win probability. Obviously not adjusted for home vs away, individual match ups, etc.
ETA: That second link will give me something to work on in the off season.
This post was edited on 6/2/17 at 9:19 am
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