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re: Patience is a virtue: QBs tend to get better with more years in college
Posted on 12/3/15 at 10:47 am to 0jersey
Posted on 12/3/15 at 10:47 am to 0jersey
quote:How could you have possibly taken that away from the OP? The OP did not suggest or imply any future record for LSU. Moreover, a Les Miles coached team has been to Atlanta three times already.
Do you know what I took away from your wall of stats?
We most likely will lose 2 games with any Les Miles coached team. That means it's very unlikely for us to get back to Atlanta.
I agree that the LB unit will possibly be problematic in 2016, but if Beckwith stays why can't LSU have an elite defense in 2016? What about 2017? Have you seen LSU's recent recruiting success?
Recruiting Trend: Historic and a Potential #1 Class
2012 . . 14
2013 . . . 6
2014 . . . 2
2015 . . . 5 . (Huge O-Line Haul Last Year
2016 . . . 2 . (Strong Potential for Huge D-Line and LB Haul This Year)
Saban had two consecutive Top 5 Classes: 2003 (#3) and 2004 (#5).
Miles tied that with two consecutive Top 5 Classes: 2014 (#2) and 2015 (#5).
2016 could be the first time that LSU has had three consecutive Top 5 Classes: 2014 (#2) and 2015 (#5) and 2016 (#2), and 2016 could be a #1 class.
On National Signing Day, February 3, 2016, get off the Apathy Train.
2
Posted on 12/3/15 at 11:00 am to Salviati
All that for the basic premise that QB's tend to get better with more years in college? Who would refute something so obvious? More experience should make anyone better at pretty much any position. But that means very little. The question that needs to be answered is, will an improved Brandon Harris be good enough to win SEC championships and get us in to the playoffs? Based on what I saw this year, I have real concerns. It was apparent that Harris this past year was a QB who had very little pocket awareness and was incredibly erratic with his accuracy. Maybe with another year and more (any?) coaching he gets better. I hope so, I just want to win. But this BS that don't worry, he'll be fine just because he'll be a year older is sunshine pumping at its zenith.
This post was edited on 12/3/15 at 11:03 am
Posted on 12/3/15 at 11:45 am to LSUgrad88
quote:Apparently, you:
All that for the basic premise that QB's tend to get better with more years in college? Who would refute something so obvious?
quote:
The question that needs to be answered is, will an improved Brandon Harris be good enough to win SEC championships and get us in to the playoffs? Based on what I saw this year, I have real concerns. It was apparent that Harris this past year was a QB who had very little pocket awareness and was incredibly erratic with his accuracy. Maybe with another year and more (any?) coaching he gets better.
There is a fundamental, analytical disconnect demonstrated by many posters, including you.
The "premise" is that QBs tend to get better with more years in college. You even state that it's "obvious" and irrefutable. Yet you, like so many other LSU fans, suggest that Harris is somehow different from other QBs without demonstrating in what way he is different, and, therefore, will, unlike nearly all other QBs, will not get better.
I'm not saying Harris will be a god among QBs. I am saying that it is more probable than not that Harris will show marked improvement next year. Who would refute something so obvious?
But this BS, that we should all worry, he'll not improve despite there being not one iota of analysis to suggest that he won't be fine, is Shibbolething at its zenith.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 11:49 am to Salviati
You really are having a hard time picking up something relatively simple. What part of my post says Harris won't get better? Saying someone will be better than he was, does not mean he will be good enough. How can you not get that? Its not complicated. Ok, he'll be better. Better than not very good isn't going to do it in the SEC West. Lose the graphs and try a little common sense.
This post was edited on 12/3/15 at 11:52 am
Posted on 12/3/15 at 12:01 pm to LSUgrad88
You really are having hard time picking up something relatively simple. Saying someone will be better than he was, means that is's more likely that he will be good enough, yet you want everyone to worry that he will not be good enough. How can you not get that? Its not complicated. Ok, he'll be better. If he improves like prior LSU QBs, he may be the best in the SEC West. Read the graphs and try a little common sense.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 12:32 pm to Salviati
how about history? Jennings was "better" this year than last, but he had not improved enough to be better than a first year sophomore starter. harris will be better - will he beat out etling or McMillan? if they are better than him, how much better? statistics cannot quantify depth of improvement.
what it boils down to is this - lack of confidence in the coaching staff, which no amount of statistical analysis can overcome.
what it boils down to is this - lack of confidence in the coaching staff, which no amount of statistical analysis can overcome.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 12:47 pm to Salviati
Clearly, you're an idiot who just wants to justify his love of Brandon Harris. Being better than terrible does not necessarily make you good. And it certainly is no guarantee to make you good enough.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 1:00 pm to Salviati
How did I get that from your post? Because I can actually do some analysis and get past the statistical window dressing.
Every player at every position improves every season barring injury setting them back. Unless they are very poorly coached this is to be expected. For the record, I think Harris is talented enough to get a team to Atlanta. He needs to improve quite a bit, but so do the receivers.
Look over your number salad again and see that Miles has lost more than one game in 10/11 seasons. In the current landscape of the SEC (specifically the west) two losses won't get LSU to Atlanta.
Now, onto your future predictions concerning recruiting. There is no guarantee that Miles will close with a top 1-3 class. A top 5 is likely.
That being said, our direct opposition to Atlanta will have another top 1-5 class for how many years of the last 6? Couple that with superior coaching and it's no wonder we lose 5 straight.
How will our D be elite exactly? We have no linebacker depth and no guarantee KB returns. Who is our corner gonna be if and when TW leaves early? Are we counting on another true freshman? What amazing player will fill in for Mills? There's a difference between being improved and being elite.
We should have some better depth on the line, but they will be young, even if we get them to sign and qualify. Younger players just aren't strong enough to anchor a line for a season. I want to believe, but a talented experienced line beats a talented inexperienced line every time. I have faith we will be better here, but it's been a while since we had an elite D line.
Once again we will need to rely on young players in possibly some pretty key spots. That leads to breakdowns simply due to youth rather than lack of talent.
Is it possible we are going to be largely improved overall? Sure it is. But I stopped holding my breath because I passed out years ago.
#nextyrU
#ApathyTrain
Every player at every position improves every season barring injury setting them back. Unless they are very poorly coached this is to be expected. For the record, I think Harris is talented enough to get a team to Atlanta. He needs to improve quite a bit, but so do the receivers.
Look over your number salad again and see that Miles has lost more than one game in 10/11 seasons. In the current landscape of the SEC (specifically the west) two losses won't get LSU to Atlanta.
Now, onto your future predictions concerning recruiting. There is no guarantee that Miles will close with a top 1-3 class. A top 5 is likely.
That being said, our direct opposition to Atlanta will have another top 1-5 class for how many years of the last 6? Couple that with superior coaching and it's no wonder we lose 5 straight.
How will our D be elite exactly? We have no linebacker depth and no guarantee KB returns. Who is our corner gonna be if and when TW leaves early? Are we counting on another true freshman? What amazing player will fill in for Mills? There's a difference between being improved and being elite.
We should have some better depth on the line, but they will be young, even if we get them to sign and qualify. Younger players just aren't strong enough to anchor a line for a season. I want to believe, but a talented experienced line beats a talented inexperienced line every time. I have faith we will be better here, but it's been a while since we had an elite D line.
Once again we will need to rely on young players in possibly some pretty key spots. That leads to breakdowns simply due to youth rather than lack of talent.
Is it possible we are going to be largely improved overall? Sure it is. But I stopped holding my breath because I passed out years ago.
#nextyrU
#ApathyTrain
This post was edited on 12/3/15 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 12/3/15 at 1:06 pm to LSUgrad88
quote:That's it. You've figured me out. I love Brandon Harris. You have amazing insight.
Clearly, you're an idiot who just wants to justify his love of Brandon Harris.
Just show me where I professed my love for Brandon Harris because this is the first time I have ever been called a Harris love by anyone.
quote:You think Harris was terrible this year?
Being better than terrible does not necessarily make you good.
Clearly, you're an idiot who just wants to justify his hatred of Brandon Harris.
quote:Ohhhh, you want a guarantee.
And it certainly is no guarantee to make you good enough.
Sorry, but I didn't provide any guarantees in this thread. I didn't even suggest a guarantee.
In any event, you're likely to be unhappy in life because you aren't going to find any guarantees there either.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 1:09 pm to Salviati
Upvote. Nice work.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 1:24 pm to Salviati
You actually think he played even average this year. How many wide open receivers did he horribly overthrow (one so bad he even got his WR on a surgery table). His accuracy and touch on check down routes was abysmal. His pocket awareness is non-existent. Just being a year older is no guarantee to fix things. Your entire numbers salad post was a don't worry he'll be a year older and everything will be fine load of crap. Your quote was "There is no rational reason to think Harris won't be much improved next year." Lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and consistently poor accuracy on throws are rational reasons to worry he won't be good enough. I hope he is, and I'm sure he'll go into the spring as the first team QB. Unfortunately, I am very hesitant to think if he's the starter next year that he will be much better. If he is the starter, I would love to be wrong. But from what I've seen, he doesn't have it. He's already had two full years in practice, the film room, and coach's classroom and the end result was not pretty. And you can put up every graph you can find, and it won't change that.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 2:13 pm to 0jersey
quote:Let me know when you plan to start.
How did I get that from your post? Because I can actually do some analysis and get past the statistical window dressing.
quote:Look at that, we are already agreeing.
Every player at every position improves every season barring injury setting them back. Unless they are very poorly coached this is to be expected. For the record, I think Harris is talented enough to get a team to Atlanta. He needs to improve quite a bit, but so do the receivers.
quote:Miles didn't have two losses in 2011. Why can't he do it again?
Look over your number salad again and see that Miles has lost more than one game in 10/11 seasons. In the current landscape of the SEC (specifically the west) two losses won't get LSU to Atlanta.
quote:Powerball numbers, please? LSU is #2 now with lots of top recruits warm to LSU.
Now, onto your future predictions concerning recruiting. There is no guarantee that Miles will close with a top 1-3 class. A top 5 is likely.
quote:I agree that it's tough to compete with Bama. Miles has beat Saban before; Miles can beat Saban again. If Freeze can beat Saban, Miles can beat Saban. You need to get over your catastrophe syndrome.
That being said, our direct opposition to Atlanta will have another top 1-5 class for how many years of the last 6? Couple that with superior coaching and it's no wonder we lose 5 straight.
quote:I understand the LB issue. LSU has corners coming out of their ears: DT, KT, DJ, RG, EP, RR. LSU has safeties too: JA, RJ, CT, JB.
How will our D be elite exactly? We have no linebacker depth and no guarantee KB returns. Who is our corner gonna be if and when TW leaves early? Are we counting on another true freshman? What amazing player will fill in for Mills? There's a difference between being improved and being elite.
quote:You worry too much if you are worried about LSU's defensive line, and LSU's line will more experienced than Bama's.
We should have some better depth on the line, but they will be young, even if we get them to sign and qualify. Younger players just aren't strong enough to anchor a line for a season. I want to believe, but a talented experienced line beats a talented inexperienced line every time. I have faith we will be better here, but it's been a while since we had an elite D line.
quote:Except LB, we have experienced depth everywhere.
Once again we will need to rely on young players in possibly some pretty key spots. That leads to breakdowns simply due to youth rather than lack of talent.
quote:
Is it possible we are going to be largely improved overall? Sure it is. But I stopped holding my breath because I passed out years ago.
It's hard to compete with numerous #1 classes at Alabama. However, the future looks bright with upperclassmen QBs and three consecutive Top Five recruiting classes.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 2:13 pm to LSUgrad88
quote:He was middle of the SEC in efficiency. His Comp% combined with his YPA were middle of the SEC.
You actually think he played even average this year.
quote:Explain to me why Brandon Harris is different from every other QB who showed marked improvement year over year?
How many wide open receivers did he horribly overthrow (one so bad he even got his WR on a surgery table). His accuracy and touch on check down routes was abysmal. His pocket awareness is non-existent. Just being a year older is no guarantee to fix things. Your entire numbers salad post was a don't worry he'll be a year older and everything will be fine load of crap. Your quote was "There is no rational reason to think Harris won't be much improved next year." Lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and consistently poor accuracy on throws are rational reasons to worry he won't be good enough. I hope he is, and I'm sure he'll go into the spring as the first team QB. Unfortunately, I am very hesitant to think if he's the starter next year that he will be much better. If he is the starter, I would love to be wrong. But from what I've seen, he doesn't have it. He's already had two full years in practice, the film room, and coach's classroom and the end result was not pretty. And you can put up every graph you can find, and it won't change that.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 2:58 pm to Salviati
Explain to me why Brandon Harris is different from every other QB who showed marked improvement year over year?
I can only keep explaining this so many times. Last time and I am done. Lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and overall lack of accuracy on his passes. He needs drastic improvement in all areas to be an above average QB. That will not simply happen because he becomes a junior.
I can only keep explaining this so many times. Last time and I am done. Lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and overall lack of accuracy on his passes. He needs drastic improvement in all areas to be an above average QB. That will not simply happen because he becomes a junior.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 3:32 pm to Salviati
quote:
LSU has corners coming out of their ears: DT, KT, DJ, RG, EP, RR. LSU has safeties too: JA, RJ, CT, JB.
Battle may end up being ok at safety. RJ shown to be a liability and CT is best in run support only. Doubt if either is drafted.
As far as corners, DT is a shell of his pre-acl self, and is suspect as all get out in coverage. Gage can't be counted on in real competition. Maybe, maybe Paris can hold his own. We may have a freshman contribute, but he will make the same type errors Toliver made this yr. Likely we will have someone back there who we have to play because they know the calls the best.
quote:
Look at that, we are already agreeing
I am not disagreeing with you at all concerning your point in your original post. I am pointing out that you are not really seeing the forest for the trees.
Miles had one loss in one season. He assembled possibly the greatest defense in LSU history although some would debate that. I give him credit for that. But in no way can you seriously think our D next year will compare to any of the '06, '07, or '11 defenses.
You point to the fact Miles righted the ship in 2011, but he lost less games in the stretch from 08-10 than 12-14 and he's lost not only three this yr but three straight in a fashion not seen under Miles or even LSU since 1966.
So if we lose the bowl game would we say we have really stopped the decline?
So let me ask you this--what's more likely to happen:
We improve and have another killer class that contributes enough to win a championship next year (which by your own accounts the west is down)
Or
We underperform relative to our talent and are out of serious sec title contention in early November and have 2 or more losses on the season
Since you're big on analyzing statistics what does the statistical analysis point towards?
Posted on 12/3/15 at 4:01 pm to LSUgrad88
quote:None so blind.quote:I can only keep explaining this so many times. Last time and I am done. Lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and overall lack of accuracy on his passes. He needs drastic improvement in all areas to be an above average QB. That will not simply happen because he becomes a junior.
Explain to me why Brandon Harris is different from every other QB who showed marked improvement year over year?
You refuse to see the issue.
You say that a first year, true sophomore starter showed: Lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and overall lack of accuracy on his passes.
Guess what? No shite! Most early starters show some combination of lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and overall lack of accuracy on passes.
That's why early starter QBs show marked improvement as they get more years of experience.
You seem to think that all the QBs who showed marked improvement already possessed pocket awareness, touch, accuracy, etc. If they had all of those qualities during their early year(s), they would NOT show marked improvement in their later year(s).
Take Mettenberger for example. In 2012, did he have a lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and overall lack of accuracy on his passes? Yes, he had a combination of those issues. His 2012 numbers reflect those deficits.
LSU QB Efficiency 2012: 127.13 (Ranked: 79 Nation; 11 SEC)
But he showed marked improvement the next year:
LSU QB Efficiency 2013: 164.72 (Ranked: 6 Nation; 2 SEC)
Compare Harris's first year:
LSU QB Efficiency 2015: 127.27 (Ranked: 73 Nation; 8th SEC)
Harris had a better year in 2015 than Mett had in 2012.
Brandon Allen led the SEC in QB Efficiency in 2015.
Brandon Allen 2015 QB Efficiency 165.18
As a first year, true sophomore starter in 2013, his numbers were far worse than Harris 2015:
Brandon Allen 2013 QB Efficiency 109.02
Guess what people said about Brandon Allen in 2013? I'll bet it was something like: Lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch and overall lack of accuracy on his passes. He had a 49.6% completion percentage. (Harris had 53.1% this year.)
So save your tears about how Harris "needs drastic improvement in all areas to be an above average QB." Harris is no significant differences from most early year QBs. There is NO rational reason to believe that he will not show marked improvement next year.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 4:12 pm to 0jersey
quote:Don't forget about DJ.
As far as corners
quote:I don't the underlying facts to perform that analysis at this time. No one does. I'll bet that the pundits and Vegas suggest something in the range of two losses or less for 2016.
So let me ask you this--what's more likely to happen:
We improve and have another killer class that contributes enough to win a championship next year (which by your own accounts the west is down)
Or
We underperform relative to our talent and are out of serious sec title contention in early November and have 2 or more losses on the season
Since you're big on analyzing statistics what does the statistical analysis point towards?
In my opinion, it's neither a mortal sin nor acceptance of mediocrity to look to 2017 with LSU's 2014-2016 recruiting classes. There are not many teams that can seriously say #nextyrU. Optimism is better for your health.
Posted on 12/3/15 at 4:18 pm to Salviati
Sal,
I've been following this thread for the last couple of days. I've heard so many times that LSU is incapable of developing QBs for so long, I blindly followed along and figured it to be true.
To develop- to grow or cause to grow and become more advanced, advanced or elaborate.
Thanks for letting me know; we've been "developing" QBs all the time. It's funny; looking at the stats; I believe JJ left LSU as the 2nd highest completion % at LSU. But to hear the rant talk; he was a bum that could t move the ball past the 50!
I've been following this thread for the last couple of days. I've heard so many times that LSU is incapable of developing QBs for so long, I blindly followed along and figured it to be true.
To develop- to grow or cause to grow and become more advanced, advanced or elaborate.
Thanks for letting me know; we've been "developing" QBs all the time. It's funny; looking at the stats; I believe JJ left LSU as the 2nd highest completion % at LSU. But to hear the rant talk; he was a bum that could t move the ball past the 50!
Posted on 12/3/15 at 4:20 pm to Salviati
If ever there was a recruiting visit by a college coach promising a kid the starting QB job the day he walks on campus it occured Tueday nite when Cameron and Miles visited with Felipe Franks in his parents home! NO MO HARRIS OR JENNINGS PLEASE!!!
Posted on 12/3/15 at 4:23 pm to daberryballer
According to the data this is the LAST thing g we want to happe
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