LSU vs Alabama TONIGHT 8pm SECN/PMAC..ETA: New Score Prediction

LSU plays host to red-hot Alabama Wednesday night. First go around, LSU won at the Coleman Coliseum for the 1st time in a decade, 72-70. At the time, most thought it was a mediocre win. Although Bama had a decent RPI at the time, they were coming off of a loss at lowly Auburn and were 1-4 in the SEC. Since the loss against LSU, Avery Johnson's team is 5-1 with their only loss coming on the road to South Carolina.

Projected Lineups:
Alabama-
F Jimmie Taylor 6'10 240 5.9ppg, 5.2rpg, 1.9bpg
F Riley Norris 6'7 207 8.7ppg, 4.7rpg
F Shannon Hale 6'8 226 11.2ppg 3.1rpg,
G Retin Obasohan 6'1 208 16.0ppg, 3.9rpg, 2.8apg
G Arthur Edwards 6'6 210 9.6ppg, 4.0rpg
KEY RESERVES:
F Michael Kessens 6'9 223 4.3ppg, 3.7rpg
G Justin Coleman 5'10 160 7.8ppg 3.4apg

LSU-
F Craig Victor
F Ben Simmons
G Keith Hornsby
G Tim Quarterman
G Antonio Blakeney

Offensively:
Stats-
PPG: 67.5% (286th nationally)
FG%: 42.7% (229th nationally)
3P%: 33.5% (224th nationally)
FT%: 65% (31st nationally)
APG: 11 (311th nationally)
Turnovers: 14 (286th nationally)
Offensive Rebounds: 8.8 (196th nationally)
Offensive Efficiency: .975 (248th nationally)

Nothing has really changed offensively for Alabama. They are still strongly led by Obasohan, and other than that Hale can play and Riley Norris seems to be annoying. They do not share well, are terrible at FT's, and I guess their bright spot is that they aren't atrocious at FG%. There simply is not much to say about them offensively.

Defensively:
Stats-
PPG: 67 (59th nationally)
FG%: 39.8% (29th nationally)
3P%: 32.2% (60th nationally)
RPG: 35.5 (193rd nationally)
BPG: 5.1 (30th nationally)
SPG: 6.1 (152nd nationally)
Turnovers Forced: 12.9 (159th nationally)
Offensive Rebs Allowed: 11 (330th nationally)
Defensive Efficiency: .969 (81st nationally)

In the first meeting, LSU spread the scoring around and 5 players scored in double digits, led by Ben who scored 23. LSU was 4/10 from 3, was able to grab 12 offensive rebounds, and shot 49% overall.

Bama, wins because of defense. In 4 of their last 6 games they've allowed less than 65 points. They are a good shot blocking team, and excellent at contesting shots. They don't force a lot of turnovers and do a terrible job at keeping opponents off the glass.

Keys of the Game:

1.) 70 points: Bama has a very difficult time scoring. Personally, I think if LSU gets to 70 they win. Bama scored 70 against LSU the first time, but it was at home and still lost.

2.) Obasohan: LSU allowed him to shoot 50% and score 20 points. He's the one player that can have a very big game and score a variety of ways. I expect Blakeney to be on him, and he needs to be tough.

3.) Patience: LSU must be patient. Bama will force LSU to beat them because they will not be themselves. If LSU rushes themselves on offense, and does not focus on ball movement and players become selfish, it could be a long night for LSU.

Prediction:

Avery Johnson has done a remarkable job at Alabama in his first season. Most did not think Alabama would compete, let alone be a bubble team this season. However, talent-wise, he does not have a lot of horses in the stable. I think Alabama will keep it close because the style of play that they play. I expect the PMAC to be near full capacity. A) Everyone hates Alabama B) It's quick-change!!!!! and C) It's two very good basketball teams. I think the crowd will propel this team to victory.

LSU - 75
Bama- 62

ETA: I changed my prediction based on the following:

1) What type of road environments have Bama played in that would be considered 'hostile'? I would argue @Dayton (lost by 32), @Auburn (because of their rivalry and lost...to Auburn...Auburn), @USCe (lost by 14), @UF, but in reality the arena was half filled. Also, if we look at that box score, Alabama got DOMINATED that game but UF could not make a shot.

2.) When was the last time Alabama was a contender for the NCAAT? They've won 4 in a row, 2 against bottom-dwellers, another against a team who has lost 5 of 6 and 5 straight SEC games, and then a quality victory over UF who could not hit water if they fell out of a boat. I think they have inflated self confidence. Also, it is much harder to be the hunted rather than the hunter

3.) Lastly, they don't match up well with LSU. LSU's biggest weakness is transition defense and losing shooters from time to time. Well, Alabama is not good at scoring, not good at shooting, and not a push the tempo transition team. So they match up perfectly for LSU. Home teams usually shoot better, and if you remember the game, Coleman and Obasohan both hit about 30 footers as time was running out at one point. Offensively they played above their heads and quite frankly got lucky.

I simply have a great feeling that LSU will come out and put on a show.