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Started By
Message
re: LSU +6.5 vs Bama Opening Line
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:00 pm to diehardfan
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:00 pm to diehardfan
quote:
your "Hail Mary" tactic of making baseless and incorrect accusations is understandably your only play.
Baseless? So I guess this really isn't posted on the first page of this thread?
quote:
Vegas dictates the opening line which is just a guess
1
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:07 pm to MOT
What is the money line ? Around +230, -250
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:27 pm to SuperKyle
bovada, but lines may not be up yet. If you want to use them, you should use my referral code 
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:32 pm to Will Cover
willcover
thats the dumbest statement in this thread
books want equal money. they win on the 10% juice
thats the dumbest statement in this thread
books want equal money. they win on the 10% juice
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:42 pm to Will Cover
quote:
High is Alabama - 7.5 or more. If this were the case, I'd play Alabama all day long.
Since it's not, LSU appears to be the side. Believe the sportsbooks (and while in theory want even action) are enticing the betting public to play Alabama.
^This
While I'm no where near "professional" in terms of sports betting, I know well enough that 7 is the biggest key number in football except for 3.
When most casual sports bettors see Alabama -6.5, they will jump on it. There is this perception about Alabama since their Ole Miss loss that they are somehow back to who they were, unbeatable. And people seeing a half point below the key number 7? It must be a sure thing right?
Nah. Wait on it. Watch the line jump to 7 or 7.5, and place your bet then.
Vegas doesn't earn millions upon millions by receiving even money on all games. They want you on a specific side.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:49 pm to BradleyJ33
I thought it was gonna open at 4.5 or 5
Posted on 10/26/15 at 11:33 pm to eddieray
It must be set the way it is for monetary reasons - objectively this game is even except for home field advantage, which is strangely absent in this series.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 11:40 pm to diehardfan
quote:
Their goal is to get equal action on both sides.
Theoretically.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 11:54 pm to dcrews
quote:
When most casual sports bettors see Alabama -6.5, they will jump on it. There is this perception about Alabama since their Ole Miss loss that they are somehow back to who they were, unbeatable.
IMO-
I disagree. I think the pros lean hard on LSU and bring it down before the casuals get their grubby hands on it.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 12:02 am to StripedSaint
quote:
I disagree. I think the pros lean hard on LSU and bring it down before the casuals get their grubby hands on it.
I guess that depends on whether or not you think casual bettors will respect LSU. I Don't think they will, but I've been wrong about situations like these before.
Either way, I think giving LSU anything over a field goal is a lot. I'll be taking LSU and probably putting money on the money line as well.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 1:00 am to breadtiger
quote:
books want equal money. they win on the 10% juice
Biggest myth ever.......did the books think they were going to get even money when they set the USC/Utah line @ USC -3/-7 (#3 team a prohibitive underdog to an unranked team)? Hell no, they knew the fools would pile in on Utah with wanton abandon and SC would roll.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 1:15 am to BradleyJ33
No just about right actually. Won't go lower than 5.5 IMHO.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 1:30 am to diehardfan
TIGERS have Fournette and Harris. Bama has the refs.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 5:06 am to Chris Warner
Outside of Louisiana most of the nation thinks Bama is the best, it's what their recent success does for them, that is part of the reason their lines are like this. Personally I think this is going to be a low scoring close game decided by field goals. If Harris continues to play like he has we may pull this one out. I would bet lsu in this one don't think we lose by more than 6.5
Posted on 10/27/15 at 5:07 am to MOT
Who eactly is 'vegas'. Bama will be a 3 point fav at kickoff which represents a pickem game.. Home field gets 3 pts in these type games
Posted on 10/27/15 at 5:18 am to MOT
quote:
And if they were merely taking a guess at what that line is, the one that would draw action on each side, they would get taken to the woodshed on a regular basis. Sure they miss some, especially early in the season, and they get beat up on openers but you're kidding yourself if you think they're just throwing numbers against the wall.
Strawman argument
He said that they base the numbers on many factors, but it is essentially a guess. You are trying to make him look like an idiot by saying he is arguing that Vegas makes a random line without much thought. He never said that but you make it out to look like that, Strawman.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 6:08 am to derp
A 3pt line at kickoff? No way the line moves 3.5 pts either way.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 6:26 am to BradleyJ33
I don't think you know what opening line means. You could have bet on this game since August.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 6:59 am to dallastiger55
quote:
dallastiger55
You going to be OK if LSU wins? No melts?
Or have you sort of slinked away from your nega stance just kind of hiding in the weeds waiting to pounce?
Posted on 10/27/15 at 7:01 am to catholictigerfan
Straw man argument
I wish diehard would just come out and make HIS point, whatever that might be, with all his knowledge and experience instead of being so damn condescending.
I wish diehard would just come out and make HIS point, whatever that might be, with all his knowledge and experience instead of being so damn condescending.
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