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re: LSU +6.5 vs Bama Opening Line
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:04 pm to BradleyJ33
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:04 pm to BradleyJ33
quote:
I realize this...Just seems they would get more action on both sides with a -3 or -4 spread in Bama's favor, IMHO. -6.5 is going to bring in a ton of bets on LSU, which will cause the line to move down, but there won't be close to the same money on the Bama side of the line.
Yeah, no. Vegas knows what they are doing. There will be equal amounts on each side.
This post was edited on 10/26/15 at 9:06 pm
2
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:06 pm to GumboPot
Seems high. but I dont know shite about lines. 
If I had to, I would probably take the points.
If I had to, I would probably take the points.Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:06 pm to GumboPot
All I know is we're kicking their arse that night
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:07 pm to tigerfan in bamaland
quote:
If I had to, I would probably take the points.
I'd definitely take the points right now.
IMO, it ends up around +4.5 LSU at game time.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:11 pm to MOT
quote:
And if they were merely taking a guess at what that line is, the one that would draw action on each side, they would get taken to the woodshed on a regular basis. Sure they miss some, especially early in the season, and they get beat up on openers but you're kidding yourself if you think they're just throwing numbers against the wall.
It's always amusing to listen to people who think they know what they are talking about but really don't, especially about betting lines.
If you're going to run your mouth about a topic, do a little research beforehand. You'd be doing yourself a favor.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:13 pm to GumboPot
quote:
IMO, it ends up around +4.5 LSU at game time
I agree with you.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:22 pm to diehardfan
You're right. They don't rate teams or even watch the games. They throw a random number out there on Sunday and wait to see what happens. I would have known that had I done more research.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:25 pm to BradleyJ33
quote:
LSU +6.5 vs Bama Opening Line
quote:
Seems high to me.
High is Alabama - 7.5 or more. If this were the case, I'd play Alabama all day long.
Since it's not, LSU appears to be the side. Believe the sportsbooks (and while in theory want even action) are enticing the betting public to play Alabama.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:26 pm to MOT
Or you could continue to inject ridiculous statements that no one has previously mentioned in order to try and validate your uneducated viewpoint. Because that has been working so well for ya 
This post was edited on 10/26/15 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:27 pm to Will Cover
So you think the line moves even more in Bama's favor?
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:29 pm to BradleyJ33
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:30 pm to geauxnavybeatbama
Where can I bet on this game?
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:33 pm to diehardfan
quote:
uneducated viewpoint
Yes, I'm clearly the uneducated one. I thought all along that oddsmakers actually put some thought into what lines should be, but apparently they just roll the dice and stick with whatever comes up.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:34 pm to BradleyJ33
According to data, a 6.5 point home favorite wins straight up 73.49% of the time. I think most would rate our chances of winning straight up higher than 26.51%, so it seems the line should be lower.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:40 pm to BradleyJ33
quote:
I realize this...Just seems they would get more action on both sides with a -3 or -4 spread in Bama's favor, IMHO. -6.5 is going to bring in a ton of bets on LSU, which will cause the line to move down, but there won't be close to the same money on the Bama side of the line.
There's a lot of big money that loves to bet on bama nation wide. All the constant talk about Obama over the last 4 years has created a national following.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:40 pm to km
constant talk about bama
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:41 pm to BradleyJ33
quote:
So you think the line moves even more in Bama's favor?
If the line is set at Alabama - 6.5, I can't imagine the books would want to go to 7 as they could get sided on the game both ways.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:45 pm to BradleyJ33
Sounds about right to me. As big as people are on Bama they will be jumping all over Bama at less than a touchdown. If it were higher there would be too much on LSU. How many Bama/LSU fans have been decided by a touchdown?
:inb41/9
:inb41/9
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:46 pm to SuperKyle
quote:
Where can I bet on this game?
I play online. YouWager and WebWager.
Safe, secure and convenient.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:46 pm to MOT
quote:
Yes, I'm clearly the uneducated one. I thought all along that oddsmakers actually put some thought into what lines should be, but apparently they just roll the dice and stick with whatever comes up.
Clearly, but after painting yourself into a corner of prideful misinformation, your "Hail Mary" tactic of making baseless and incorrect accusations is understandably your only play.
Yet grabbing a megaphone and screaming, "I have no idea what I'm talking about and I don't care!" would produce the same result.
Either way, mission accomplished
This post was edited on 10/26/15 at 9:48 pm
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