Lies, damn lies and statistics

I've been bumping the Gator boards, mostly lurking. Amazed at the amount of energy being devoted to statistical analysis.

I've also looked at some stat - analysis performed by some ranters. Looking at the stats, LSU should not even show up and play the game this Saturday - the Gators have us beat in every damn stat catagory.

Look at the box score from the Saints game this weekend and leave out the turnovers the Saints forced and you would have a very even game. Stats only exist in a vacuum and ignore the huge variables present in football. Further, with such a small population to pull from, you really cannot glean anything meaningful from stats this time of year.

Three non-stat-driven qualitative measures will (in my opinion) play a huge role leading up to the game this weekend.

1. Tebow. There is no way a responsible MD should let him play. Concussions ARE FREAKING BRAIN INJURIES!! I hate to not see him play, because he is the best college football player I think I have ever seen and I would love for LSU to beat a Tebow-led team. However, the strong odds are that he will not play. Take away Tebow, UF loses its offensive identity. In large measure, they lose their team identity. That's hard to overcome.

2. LSU is so jelling right now. Offense and defense in the last game were a hair away from blowing out GA, but the scoreboard sure did not agree with that statement. LSU had a lot of success running the ball. I am betting UF plays to take away the run and make Jefferson beat them. His timing is coming and he is really going to play well. I can't point to a stat that proves it (other than his freaking win-loss record as a starter), but Jefferson is a winner. He'll be playing in the biggest game of his life in front of a raucus home crowd. I like his chances.

3. Saturday night live. LSU team will be dissected and dissembled this week by the talking heads at ESPN. The game will be played out on paper and on blogs all week. But at 7:00 pm on Saturday, the huge huge advantage that is Tiger Stadium at night will rear its ugly head. LSU will be geeked to play and so will the crowd. If LSU has some early success - it will be 2007 all over again.

And that, my fellow ranters, was AWESOME!!!

I am sure there are other non-stat driven qualitative factors that will paint the picture leading up to the game this week-end. I'll be interested in hearing them. What say you?????

GEAUX TIGERS!!