Let's assume, Okie St AND Clemson win on Saturday. What % chance does Bama...

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If Okie State and Clemson win, it will be OSU vs LSU.


I'd say 85% chance it's OSU if those two things happen.

Right now, Bama is in the driver's seat. But if those two things happen, IMO OSU is clearly in the driver's seat.

50/50.

They are either or they aint.

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Let's assume Clemson AND Okie St. win. What % Okie St. makes it to NOLA?

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90% chance

I still dont understand why some people are SOOO sure that Bama has already punched their ticket. They are underestimating the voters ability to jump teams on the last poll

Even though I'll be pulling for Clemson (and against a LSU-Bama rematch), I don't think VaTech is as big an issue as some make it out to be.

I feel very confident that if OSU beats OU, they will certainly hop VaTech and Stanford in just about every - if not all - human ballots. No way voters are going to put the ACC champ in front of the Big12 champ on their final ballot IMO.

My opinion is that the VT game doesn't matter. I believe that there are lots of voters who will jump at the chance to avoid a rematch, but have Alabama at #2 only because they don't want to feel foolish if OSU AND VT lose. At least Alabama WONT be a 2-loss team. Can't say that about OSU and VT.

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If Okie State and Clemson win, it will be OSU vs LSU.

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80%

and Bama's not getting 'snubbed'. They just won't sneak in.

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Yes it does matter because right now the human polls have V. Tech ahead of OSU. If V. Tech loses, that means that OSU will move at least one spot on those ballots that have been voting OSU 5th. If OSU wins convincingly (and V. Tech loses), some voters that have had them at 5th may move them up to 3rd or even 2nd.

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I was wondering why Clemson/VTech mattered. I still say if OSU beats OU, they make the jump.

I've said it all along, the final reg. season polls are different than the week to week polls. The reg. season begins with 25 teams in predetermined spots. Throughout the season, the voters suffle teams along as the teams in front of them lose. Once a team loses they fall back to particular place in the line and the "process" starts over. This is what happened to Bama after the LSU loss. They fell to #4 and kept moving along as the teams in front fell. It did't matter that they weren't necessarily dominant against MSU or Ga. Southern (while Ore. blasted undefeated Stanford), it only mattered that they did not lose. Week to week, the voters don't look at every team's body of work to that point in the season and adjust the poll accordingly, they simply just move you up the line as the teams in front of you lose.

The final poll however is different. I think recent history has shown that this is the one poll in which voters evaluate everybody's "body of work." If this wasn't the case, then LSU would have never jumped UGA in the final human polls in 2007. UF would not have jumped Mich. in 2006. Does anyone really believe that LSU would have jumped 4 spots over an idle UGA if that was the week 7 poll?

All that being said, I think voters will look at everyone's body of work and suffle the poll how they see fit, i.e. should OSU win, they won't stay behind Bama simply because Bama was ranked ahead of them at the beginning of the day and didn't lose that week. I'm not saying the voters won't still consider Bama to be the #2 team. I'm just saying that it seems a little premature to say LSU - Bama is a "lock" and the games this weekend are irrelevant. (of course should LSU lose, the BCS will go full retard)