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Les Seasons with why I think people are upset
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:16 pm
People always tout a school's record. Never fired a coach with a winning record, etc. But after starting to look at real numbers, there seems to be a bit of a trend and some reason for our disappointment.
I went through each season and looked at the cupcake teams we've played. When identifying a cupcake team, I looked for non-conference teams not ranked or ending unranked. Then (probably to everyone's horror) I subtracted those wins to give a conference/good team record.
2005 11-2 (9-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Tennessee, UGA (sec championship)
Cupcakes-North Texas, Appalachian State
2006 11-2 (7-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Auburn, Florida
Cupcakes -UL Lafayette, Arizona, Tulane, Fresno State
2007 12-2 (9-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Kentucky, Arkansas
Cupcakes -Middle TN, Tulane, LA Tech
2008 8-5 (4-5) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Cupcakes -Appalachian State, North Texas, Tulane, Troy
2009 9-4 (5-4) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, Penn State
Cupcakes -Washington, Louisiana Lafayette, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
2010 11-2 (9-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss - Auburn, Arkansas
Cupcakes -McNeese State, UL Monroe
2011 13-1 (11-1) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Alabama NC blowout
Cupcakes -Northwestern State, western KY
2012 10-3 (6-3) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Florida, Alabama, Clemson
Cupcakes -North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson (was 12 at time but ended with 4 losses )
2013 10-3 (6-3) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama
Cupcakes -TCU, UAB, Kent State, Furman
2014 8-5 (5-5)adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, Notre Dame
Cupcakes -Sam Houston, La Monroe, New Mexico
2015 ??
Loss- Alabama, Arkansas
Cupcakes -Syracuse, E. Michigan, WKU
5 seasons of good football play. 6 seasons of very mediocre football play. And this isn't even looking at Vandy or other awful SEC teams we played. Just the pay to win teams were removed.
This is why I think people are upset. Yes, we can inflate our wins by playing nobodies, but that doesn't mean we are better. We're better when we can beat the teams that matter.
I went through each season and looked at the cupcake teams we've played. When identifying a cupcake team, I looked for non-conference teams not ranked or ending unranked. Then (probably to everyone's horror) I subtracted those wins to give a conference/good team record.
2005 11-2 (9-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Tennessee, UGA (sec championship)
Cupcakes-North Texas, Appalachian State
2006 11-2 (7-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Auburn, Florida
Cupcakes -UL Lafayette, Arizona, Tulane, Fresno State
2007 12-2 (9-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Kentucky, Arkansas
Cupcakes -Middle TN, Tulane, LA Tech
2008 8-5 (4-5) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Cupcakes -Appalachian State, North Texas, Tulane, Troy
2009 9-4 (5-4) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, Penn State
Cupcakes -Washington, Louisiana Lafayette, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
2010 11-2 (9-2) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss - Auburn, Arkansas
Cupcakes -McNeese State, UL Monroe
2011 13-1 (11-1) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Alabama NC blowout
Cupcakes -Northwestern State, western KY
2012 10-3 (6-3) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Florida, Alabama, Clemson
Cupcakes -North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson (was 12 at time but ended with 4 losses )
2013 10-3 (6-3) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama
Cupcakes -TCU, UAB, Kent State, Furman
2014 8-5 (5-5)adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, Notre Dame
Cupcakes -Sam Houston, La Monroe, New Mexico
2015 ??
Loss- Alabama, Arkansas
Cupcakes -Syracuse, E. Michigan, WKU
5 seasons of good football play. 6 seasons of very mediocre football play. And this isn't even looking at Vandy or other awful SEC teams we played. Just the pay to win teams were removed.
This is why I think people are upset. Yes, we can inflate our wins by playing nobodies, but that doesn't mean we are better. We're better when we can beat the teams that matter.
11
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:18 pm to drdoct
You don't get to adjust for cupcakes. All major programs play them.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:20 pm to drdoct
Not that it changes your overall point, but it's a bit of a stretch to call TCU a "cupcake". They finished with a losing record that year, but that was the really young nucleus that has grown up and rolled the last 2 seasons.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:23 pm to OldManRiver
I understand everyone plays cupcakes. And maybe it means nothing. I was surprised that TCU was in that category too, but after searching their season that year, I felt like they belonged there. I'm not taking the wins away. I'm trying to get a grip on why there is a feeling we don't win games. You know.... look at actual numbers and have seasons in front of me.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:23 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
You don't get to adjust for cupcakes. All major programs play them.
Some programs lose to them.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:23 pm to drdoct
I think a lot of people are also annoyed with how mediocre we play in every. single. game. for the most part. 2011 is the only season in Miles' tenure where we were beating the shite out of teams that we should've beaten the shite out of. We constantly struggle and come out flat and play down to our opponents and it's just getting stale.
Let's be honest, we're all college football fans because we like the game and because we think it's exciting. Les Miles football could not be less exciting and I sincerely mean that. Considering how many electric players we have and how incredibly explosive and entertaining our team could be it's just boring as frick to watch.
And it's not like we're in a position where we're grinding out SEC west championships every 2 years and contending year in and year out. We're losing the big ones in an ugly, boring, embarrassing fashion and it takes us out of the hunt almost every year.
TL;DR: LSU football is really, really boring now and I think a lot of people miss the excitement and electricity of modern football versus a guy who runs Bo's 1972 Michigan offense in 2015
edit: and this is coming from someone who really appreciate what Miles has done. I think it's really nice that our program isn't a "loser" and we consistently win a lot of games. It's just gotten to the point that constant just-above-mediocrity isn't making up for the boring brand of football we play these days
Let's be honest, we're all college football fans because we like the game and because we think it's exciting. Les Miles football could not be less exciting and I sincerely mean that. Considering how many electric players we have and how incredibly explosive and entertaining our team could be it's just boring as frick to watch.
And it's not like we're in a position where we're grinding out SEC west championships every 2 years and contending year in and year out. We're losing the big ones in an ugly, boring, embarrassing fashion and it takes us out of the hunt almost every year.
TL;DR: LSU football is really, really boring now and I think a lot of people miss the excitement and electricity of modern football versus a guy who runs Bo's 1972 Michigan offense in 2015
edit: and this is coming from someone who really appreciate what Miles has done. I think it's really nice that our program isn't a "loser" and we consistently win a lot of games. It's just gotten to the point that constant just-above-mediocrity isn't making up for the boring brand of football we play these days
This post was edited on 11/19/15 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:26 pm to drdoct
Try looking at the rank teams he has beaten as well
Its easy to focus on one side, after a loss all the negative after a win the positive
I think if you looked at every team the way you did more than a few would look like this
Its easy to focus on one side, after a loss all the negative after a win the positive
I think if you looked at every team the way you did more than a few would look like this
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:33 pm to jledet
I agree. In fact, if you look at some of our losses during the good years, they were boneheaded one off's. We had some seriously great years there.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:34 pm to drdoct
Your analysis sucks
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:49 pm to drdoct
OK, with all, but I would not rate Arizona, Washington, TCU, or Syracuse as cupcakes. These are major programs and are not expected to be weak when scheduled. So now the pattern is 9-2, 8-2, 9-2, 4-5, 6-4, 9-2, 11-1, 7-3, 7-3, 5-5, and (5-2 so far).
Posted on 11/19/15 at 3:51 pm to mauser
You're a cupcake OP.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 4:25 pm to drdoct
quote:
2012 10-3 (6-3) adjusted for cupcakes
Loss- Florida, Alabama, Clemson
Cupcakes -North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson (was 12 at time but ended with 4 losses )
I wouldn't consider Washington a cupcake that year
They beat Pac 12 champ Stanford and also beat a ranked Oregon State team
Posted on 11/19/15 at 4:29 pm to mauser
quote:
These are major programs and are not expected to be weak when scheduled.
How is that even slightly relevant to the point at hand?
Posted on 11/19/15 at 4:31 pm to mauser
quote:
9-2, 8-2, 9-2, 4-5, 6-4, 9-2, 11-1, 7-3, 7-3, 5-5, and (5-2 so far).
And I find this to be a pretty accurate depiction of our seasons. Extremely good for three years, rock bottom in '08, rebounded a little in '09, extremely good for another two years, down to very good for two years, hit rock bottom again in '14 with the potential to make a huge splash or fall flat in '15 depending on how the season ends.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 7:22 pm to Big Scrub TX
The thread is the record corrected for cupcakes. ULM, Tulane, etc. are cupcakes when scheduled. Washington, TCU, and Arizona are not. I would consider Vandy and Kentucky SEC cupcakes 9 out of 10 years, but the conference schedules those for you.
Personally, I hate to see games scheduled against minor programs like ULM. I would rather give up a home game and schedule home and home games with big schools like Texas and Notre Dame.
Personally, I hate to see games scheduled against minor programs like ULM. I would rather give up a home game and schedule home and home games with big schools like Texas and Notre Dame.
This post was edited on 11/19/15 at 7:26 pm
Posted on 11/19/15 at 7:23 pm to drdoct
Hey look a new topic for discussion
Posted on 11/19/15 at 7:24 pm to drdoct
IF you are gonna take away the games lsu should win why would you keep the games lsu should have lost?
This post was edited on 11/19/15 at 7:32 pm
Posted on 11/19/15 at 7:33 pm to Pnels08
My problem with Les is the has a tendency to "coast" until such time as he loses a couple of games, or games he should not lose. Then, it is all BACK TO WORK again to quiet the fans.
He is being paid $6MM I think, he should work hard for each and every game....not just as a jobd-saving scheme.
He is being paid $6MM I think, he should work hard for each and every game....not just as a jobd-saving scheme.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 11:11 pm to southeasttiger113
Thank you! At least someone else recognizes the Bo Schembechler MICHIGAN Wolverine offensive style we play. I'm seriously gonna pass out.
Posted on 11/19/15 at 11:23 pm to drdoct
Good post.
My bullet points:
1) play down to lesser opponents & in doing so, lose valuable PT for 2&3rd string
2) never press the gass on offense when we're up in the 2nd H
3) clock management
4) lack of in-game adjustments
5) poor player development (NFL scouts love our talent, but have said "what we're you taught?"
6) we've never had consistent OL and LB strength for a coach who loves to run
7) poor BIG game strategy and planning
My bullet points:
1) play down to lesser opponents & in doing so, lose valuable PT for 2&3rd string
2) never press the gass on offense when we're up in the 2nd H
3) clock management
4) lack of in-game adjustments
5) poor player development (NFL scouts love our talent, but have said "what we're you taught?"
6) we've never had consistent OL and LB strength for a coach who loves to run
7) poor BIG game strategy and planning
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