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Started By
Message
re: Harris' passing stats by quarter
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
when you're on the opponent's side of the field you should never punt. that's NEVER
this is absurd
1
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:43 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
when you're on the opponent's side of the field you should never punt. that's NEVER
Completely ridiculous statement. Sometimes game situations override what the studies say. And you incorrectly assume I haven't seen them.
And again, you're continuing to deflect from the original discussion. I wonder why?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:44 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
The way Fla came out in the 3rd I can understand not wanting to put the ball in the air against that secondary when you have the RBs we have
Except that we called the same percentage of pass plays in the 3rd quarter as we did the 2nd, when some people are convinced we were "more balanced".
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:46 pm to SlowFlowPro
The stats have been expanded with no comment on actual flow of the game
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:47 pm to Salmon
quote:
this is absurd
there is a lot of academic/economic analysis in this area
in that instance last night, what is 25 yards (which was great considering what typically happens) compared to a shot to end the game?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:48 pm to MOT
quote:
And again, you're continuing to deflect from the original discussion
i didn't lead this digression
plus, discussing the lack of rational aggression in the 2nd half perfectly applies to that decision
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:49 pm to tigerfoot
quote:
The stats have been expanded with no comment on actual flow of the game
the analyses are based on actual games that actually happened so your statement is wrong
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:49 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
in that instance last night, what is 25 yards (which was great considering what typically happens) compared to a shot to end the game?
25 yards with no TO and them having to score a TD? kinda big...even bigger if they only needed a FG
the fact that if we went for it and not got it, instead of them running a hail mary that falls 5 yards short of the endzone they are running an actual play to end the game at about the 25 yard line?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:50 pm to SlowFlowPro
It's roughly 30% further they have to move the ball?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:53 pm to Salmon
quote:
the fact that if we went for it and not got it, instead of them running a hail mary that falls 5 yards short of the endzone they are running an actual play to end the game at about the 25 yard line?
even if we are to assume this guess is true, what are teh odds of a 25 yard completion in that scenario? very, very low
so even in that instance, it's not very worrisome
this is compared to essentially a 0% chance of victory if we convert (we'd have to fumble a QB kneel)
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:53 pm to Salmon
quote:
25 yards with no TO and them having to score a TD? kinda big...even bigger if they only needed a FG
If Florida had started the drive at the 40 instead of the 10 because Miles went for it on 4th down, it would go down as one of the worst decisions in sports.
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:55 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
even if we are to assume this guess is true, what are teh odds of a 25 yard completion in that scenario? very, very low
so what if they only needed a FG? because you said you should NEVER punt inside the opponents 50
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:56 pm to jimbeam
quote:
It's roughly 30% further they have to move the ball?
in "cheap" yardage in the middle of the field
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
compared to a shot to end the game?
Shot to end the game was a 4th and 7 at their 35. What is the percentage chance of converting that play and winning? How much greater is that percentage than punting and forcing a team to drive 80 or more yards with no timeouts in 1:30?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:58 pm to MOT
quote:
How much greater is that percentage than punting and forcing a team to drive 80 or more yards with no timeouts in 1:30?
with a QB that SFP has called garbage multiple times
4th and 7 against UF defense or let Treon Harris go 90 yards with no TO in 90 seconds
which odds favor LSU?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:58 pm to SlowFlowPro
It's not even fricking close of a call but Miles and Peveto recreated the stat analysis software. Silicon Valley and Lunhow are greener with envy than Saban shitting his pants Ala Mary Catherine Gallagher. Omg reverse engineering at its finest...
This post was edited on 10/18/15 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 10/18/15 at 1:59 pm to Salmon
quote:
so what if they only needed a FG? because you said you should NEVER punt inside the opponents 50
you're still risking 20-ish yards for a chance to win the game. that opportunity (to win) is more valuable than the yards
hell the models are often run with NFL stats, which implies MUCH better kicking (both punting and FGs) so i imagine it's not close for college
most college kickers fricking suck and the team would have to get to the 25-ish yard for a solid FG opportunity, just as most punters in college suck. we were lucky that keane didn't frick that punt up, given his output this year
Posted on 10/18/15 at 2:01 pm to MOT
quote:
Shot to end the game was a 4th and 7 at their 35. What is the percentage chance of converting that play and winning? How much greater is that percentage than punting and forcing a team to drive 80 or more yards with no timeouts in 1:30?
the data has been run and punting is the inferior choice
note: i didn't run the data, but it's out there
Posted on 10/18/15 at 2:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
Now we're talking about NFL stats and kicking when the original point was about the mythical shift in run pass ratio that never actually happened until it made total sense to do so.
Keep digging man. Before long you'll be talking about TV shows and no one will even remember how wrong you were.
Keep digging man. Before long you'll be talking about TV shows and no one will even remember how wrong you were.
Posted on 10/18/15 at 2:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
So if it's out there, and you've obviously seen it, why don't you share it with the rest of the class... because the rest of the class thinks that giving a team the ball at the 40 instead of the 10 is pretty fricking stupid.
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