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First round SEC bye and NCAA chances.
Posted on 2/18/12 at 11:12 pm
Posted on 2/18/12 at 11:12 pm
Assuming we need two SECT wins to get an NCAA bid, does getting a first round bye work to our advantage? Seems like we'd have a better chance of winning two games by playing on opening day, in a game we should win, then taking our chances in the next round. VS getting a bye, presumably winning our first game, then taking on a Vandy or Kentucky. Thoughts?
4
Posted on 2/18/12 at 11:20 pm to Jim Rockford
If we finish in the top 4 cleanly (no ties), I think we're in IF the SEC gets five teams in. We get in the final four of the SEC tourney, we set.
If we lose a game, to Tennessee for example, we may need a couple wins in the SEC. I'd take top four and the bye, tonight.
If we lose a game, to Tennessee for example, we may need a couple wins in the SEC. I'd take top four and the bye, tonight.
Posted on 2/18/12 at 11:49 pm to Jim Rockford
The South Alabama and Coastal Carolina losses are both REALLY bad. People aren't looking deeply enough into that.
Finishing 20-10 (10-6) going into the tournament, getting a 1st round bye, winning a game, losing to Kentucky, and finishing 21-11 still probably won't be enough.
Losing one of our remaining games in the regular season and winning two games without a bye seems far-fetched as well. That would put us at 21-12, which also probably wouldn't get it done.
Two years ago, Mississippi State finished the regular season 21-10 (9-7). They got a bye in the SEC Tournament, won two games, and lost to a great Kentucky team in the tournament championship in overtime.
They had a very similar resume to what we would finish with this year, assuming we win our last four games. They had poor losses to Rider and Western Kentucky, They had a good win against Old Dominion, but most of their OOC wins were against bad teams. They even had a win @Houston.*
To look further, the SEC was 4th in conference RPI that season. From what I'm looking at, it's also 4th this year.
The major difference in comparing the two would be that Mississippi State finished the season losing their last two regular season SEC games, including a 3-3 mark in their final six games. Under any scenario that gets LSU into the NCAA Tournament this season, they would be AT LEAST 6-1 in the final seven SEC games (possibly 7-0).
Now, of course, the NCAA Tournament field was four teams smaller two years ago than it is this year. So perhaps finishing 21-11 with a loss in the semifinals of the conference tournament would put LSU right on the line - either last four in, or last four out. But keep in mind that we would likely have to play a close game in the semifinal to impress the committee (although that didn't work for State two years ago).
In my opinion, LSU will have to beat Kentucky in the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA. We aren't anywhere close to the bubble right now, looking at things objectively. Four wins against average SEC teams isn't going to change that.
We're going to have to beat one of the big boys in New Orleans. Either Kentucky or Florida. And unless some crazy shite goes down these last few weeks of SEC play, it won't be Florida.
*Yes, Houston made the NCAA Tournament in 2010. But it was strictly because they won the C-USA Tournament. They had no shot at getting an at-large bid.
Finishing 20-10 (10-6) going into the tournament, getting a 1st round bye, winning a game, losing to Kentucky, and finishing 21-11 still probably won't be enough.
Losing one of our remaining games in the regular season and winning two games without a bye seems far-fetched as well. That would put us at 21-12, which also probably wouldn't get it done.
Two years ago, Mississippi State finished the regular season 21-10 (9-7). They got a bye in the SEC Tournament, won two games, and lost to a great Kentucky team in the tournament championship in overtime.
They had a very similar resume to what we would finish with this year, assuming we win our last four games. They had poor losses to Rider and Western Kentucky, They had a good win against Old Dominion, but most of their OOC wins were against bad teams. They even had a win @Houston.*
To look further, the SEC was 4th in conference RPI that season. From what I'm looking at, it's also 4th this year.
The major difference in comparing the two would be that Mississippi State finished the season losing their last two regular season SEC games, including a 3-3 mark in their final six games. Under any scenario that gets LSU into the NCAA Tournament this season, they would be AT LEAST 6-1 in the final seven SEC games (possibly 7-0).
Now, of course, the NCAA Tournament field was four teams smaller two years ago than it is this year. So perhaps finishing 21-11 with a loss in the semifinals of the conference tournament would put LSU right on the line - either last four in, or last four out. But keep in mind that we would likely have to play a close game in the semifinal to impress the committee (although that didn't work for State two years ago).
In my opinion, LSU will have to beat Kentucky in the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA. We aren't anywhere close to the bubble right now, looking at things objectively. Four wins against average SEC teams isn't going to change that.
We're going to have to beat one of the big boys in New Orleans. Either Kentucky or Florida. And unless some crazy shite goes down these last few weeks of SEC play, it won't be Florida.
*Yes, Houston made the NCAA Tournament in 2010. But it was strictly because they won the C-USA Tournament. They had no shot at getting an at-large bid.
Posted on 2/18/12 at 11:56 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
Finishing 20-10 (10-6) going into the tournament, getting a 1st round bye, winning a game, losing to Kentucky, and finishing 21-11 still probably won't be enough.
I think this gets us in as a 9 or 10 seed.
Posted on 2/18/12 at 11:58 pm to ehidal1
quote:
I think this gets us in as a 9 or 10 seed.
No way.
You think beating 5 average SEC teams is going to move us from no where near the bubble to safely into the tournament?
ETA: The committee has proven they don't just look at how you play at the end of the season. They are big into body of work.
This post was edited on 2/18/12 at 11:59 pm
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:02 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
BayouBengals03
Great post.
The committee does look at mostly numbers. What was MSSU's RPI when it came selection Sunday? Also, we had a fairly challenging OOC schedule this year. Our win over Marquette may turn out to be huge and make up most ground for our early bad losses. I think if we win out and make semi's in NOLA, then we will go dancing.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:04 am to lwlsu96
State's RPI that season was 55. If I'm not mistaken, that's right around what we'll be come selection Sunday.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:05 am to Jim Rockford
LSU would need an RPI in the 30s or lower to get in ... Can we really even get close to that?
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:06 am to lwlsu96
quote:
Our win over Marquette may turn out to be huge and make up most ground for our early bad losses. I think if we win out and make semi's in NOLA, then we will go dancing.
Our win over Marquette is looking better and better. If only we could have squeaked out that win over Virginia, we'd be in great shape right now. That would have been another great win for the resume.
A trip to the semis in New Orleans would put us right on the line, IMO. However, I think we'd be on the wrong side. Just barely.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:17 am to BayouBengals03
Just think, with wins over USA, CCAR, and Virginia, we would be 19-7 and around the 30's & 40's in RPI. We would be a tourney lock right now. 
This post was edited on 2/19/12 at 12:20 am
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:19 am to lwlsu96
We'd be on the bubble with that not a lock.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:23 am to saintsfan22
Yes, but if the hypothetical that everyone is counting on plays out and we won our last 4 games, we'd pretty much be a lock.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 12:24 am to saintsfan22
quote:
We'd be on the bubble with that not a lock.
Yeah now that I look at it. We would be competing for an 8 or 9 seed in the tourney.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 2:37 am to lwlsu96
Getting a first round bye would guarantee us not to face Kentucky or any of the top teams in the SEC on day two of the SEC Tournament. I'm all for it.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 8:29 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
The major difference in comparing the two would be that Mississippi State finished the season losing their last two regular season SEC games, including a 3-3 mark in their final six games
i think this is a very major diff in your scenario. 8 in a row with a loss to KY to finish season. vs miss st finishing out 3-3. also i think 10-6 vs 9-7 is a significant difference.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 9:37 am to AreJay
Y'all need to quit getting your hopes up. This LSU team is not NCAA tourn material. They are a possible NIT team, at best. They still have some work left to do to secure the NIT bid.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 4:07 pm to AreJay
We'd have to play Kentucky tight, first off.
And secondly, the committee doesn't exactly always reward teams who are hot at the end of the season. Obviously, the committee head isn't the same every year, so who knows what this year's committee will value. However, usually they are more into the numbers and body of work.
And secondly, the committee doesn't exactly always reward teams who are hot at the end of the season. Obviously, the committee head isn't the same every year, so who knows what this year's committee will value. However, usually they are more into the numbers and body of work.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 4:13 pm to guttata
What is the deal with you and bigpapamac? Do you think it's your job or something to come in and shite on LSU fans talking about possibilities for this basketball team? 
Posted on 2/19/12 at 4:17 pm to Tigerfan7218
Realistically we don't have much of a shot at the NCAA tourney outside of winning the SEC Tourney. Even an undefeated run followed by loss in the SEC Tourney championship game probably leaves us out.
Posted on 2/19/12 at 4:57 pm to saintsfan22
I know that, but the people who just shite on LSU fans for the sake of doing it piss me off.
No chance in hell this happens, because even if we are a 4 seed it means we'd have beaten 2 of the 3 out of UK, Florida and Vandy
quote:
Even an undefeated run followed by loss in the SEC Tourney championship game probably leaves us out.
No chance in hell this happens, because even if we are a 4 seed it means we'd have beaten 2 of the 3 out of UK, Florida and Vandy
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