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ESPN FPI nonsense
Posted on 10/20/15 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 10/20/15 at 8:45 pm
I feel like they should have to say that "past performance does not predict future earnings" statement like they do on Gold Coin commercials, or options books when they spout this stuff.
Florida at 31.3% chance to win the SEC. Ole miss is virtually tied with LSU. Weird.
https://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Florida at 31.3% chance to win the SEC. Ole miss is virtually tied with LSU. Weird.
https://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
10
Posted on 10/20/15 at 8:47 pm to Kingpenm3
Florida makes sense though because they will almost certainly get to the championship game.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 8:49 pm to Kingpenm3
quote:
Florida at 31.3% chance to win the SEC.
Because they have the best chance to be in Atlanta since the East sucks.
quote:
Ole miss is virtually tied with LSU. Weird.
They get their hardest games at home while we're on the road.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 9:12 pm to Kingpenm3
Those hacks spent the better part of the last decade tearing down the mysterious and untrustworthy computers of the BCS and their impossible to understand formulas, and now we get FPI and QBR bullshite every ten minutes.
Now that they got their playoff lotto ticket cashed, it's formula time.
Now that they got their playoff lotto ticket cashed, it's formula time.
This post was edited on 10/20/15 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 10/20/15 at 10:34 pm to Tiger Voodoo
I am not sure I understand how Florida has almost twice as good of a chance to win the SEC over all West teams, including LSU when we have already have seen LSU beat them and do it while giving them 14 free points. LSU is favored to win the West, just barely, but you would expect they would be favored to win overall as well. I mean, all this is just a bunch of guessing who is going to win future games and is completely pointless. It also rewards teams for losing to OOC opponents since that doesn't hurt their conference chances. USC ranked above LSU with a 3-3 record...LOL!
Posted on 10/20/15 at 10:39 pm to BigB0882
Quit taking this so seriously. It's a formula. It's obviously not perfect. However it's been a pretty good tool to use this season for handicapping.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 10:44 pm to Kingpenm3
I get that they have the easiest path to Atlanta, but I'm curious how strong the West variable is in that computation. because they lost to us, would probably lose to Bama via the model, therefore, even getting to Atlanta should only raise their chance of winning the conference marginally
Posted on 10/20/15 at 10:47 pm to saintsfan22
FPI also gives Ole Miss a very good chance to beat LSU in Oxford. Like 63% or something.
Posted on 10/20/15 at 10:55 pm to WinnPtiger
quote:
I get that they have the easiest path to Atlanta, but I'm curious how strong the West variable is in that computation. because they lost to us, would probably lose to Bama via the model, therefore, even getting to Atlanta should only raise their chance of winning the conference marginally
Ole Miss is still the favorite. At this point, they have to beat LSU and aTm at home and they're basically in because their road games are winnable and they'd own every tiebreaker because their loss is to an East team.
In order for Alabama to get in, their best bet would be to beat LSU and for LSU to beat Ole Miss. Doable but much lower by the percentages.
LSU basically MUST sweep Alabama and Ole Miss, both on the road, to get to Atlanta. If they split, they're probably fricked. This is the hardest road unless Ole Miss just quits on the season.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 12:08 am to Kingpenm3
They are simply trying to keep the largest viewing audience possible engaged to increase ratings. Ratings sell commercials, commercials pay the bills and profit.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 6:08 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:Truer words were never spoken.
Those hacks spent the better part of the last decade tearing down the mysterious and untrustworthy computers of the BCS and their impossible to understand formulas, and now we get FPI and QBR bullshite every ten minutes.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 6:42 am to saintsfan22
Ole miss may not win another game this year if they lose this week.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 6:47 am to lsutigers1992
Dude....ole miss may not even make a bowl. Have you REALLY watched them? No ol...no running game...qb is a turnover waiting to happen and the d is light at lb and poor tacklers and give up around 30 points a game in conference. If they lose this week to a&m they then go to auburn who at 4-2 is improving...they still have LSU and Arkansas and at state....ttheycant run the ball and can't stop the run.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 7:04 am to BigB0882
quote:
I am not sure I understand how Florida has almost twice as good of a chance to win the SEC over all West teams, including LSU when we have already have seen LSU beat them and do it while giving them 14 free points.
UF has three more division games - Georgia, Vanderbilt and USC. They'll beat the latter two, so in order to not make the title game UGA has to be perfect the rest of the season. Probably not happening, so UF will probably get in.
OTOH the Tigers have to play Ole Miss, Bama, A&M and Arky without losing more than once. Not a sure bet at all.
So while I like LSU in another matchup against Florida, I'm not so sure LSU will get that matchup. Viewed in that light it's pretty easy to see why Florida has a better chance of being champions than LSU does.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 7:05 am to Tigerinthehollow
Ole Miss is a weak team mentally and you just knew somebody was going to do to them what Florida did to them.
They are the neighborhood bully who gets a reputation because they mercilessly beat up the wimpiest kid at the school. But the moment somebody stood up to him and punched him in the face before he got to him, he got knocked the frick out. And then he's Mike Tyson after Buster Douglas. Self-doubt kicks in and they prove that they don't have the mental framework to recover, and they become a caricature of themselves.
They are the neighborhood bully who gets a reputation because they mercilessly beat up the wimpiest kid at the school. But the moment somebody stood up to him and punched him in the face before he got to him, he got knocked the frick out. And then he's Mike Tyson after Buster Douglas. Self-doubt kicks in and they prove that they don't have the mental framework to recover, and they become a caricature of themselves.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 7:07 am to Kingpenm3
So much butthurt.
It is for entertainment people.
It is for entertainment people.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 7:25 am to Kingpenm3
quote:LSU has the toughest November Schedule in College Football. If (huge "if") we get thru that gauntlet unscathed, we should be #1 in the country entering the playoffs.
ESPN FPI nonsense
I feel like they should have to say that "past performance does not predict future earnings" statement like they do on Gold Coin commercials, or options books when they spout this stuff.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 7:28 am to lsutigers1992
That's true...but not having an offensive line and running game and a qb who is turnover prone....is not a good recipe for success....factor in they are having trouble stopping the run and that if they lose this week their 4 "stars" may go into preservation mode....that's a recipe for disaster. Couldn't happen to a better group of fans...the arrogance and sense of supremecy for a program that literally hasn't won anything in well over half a century is just unreal.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 8:10 am to Kingpenm3
quote:
Ole miss is virtually tied with LSU. Weird.
That makes sense when considered fully.
Posted on 10/21/15 at 8:28 am to lsutigers1992
quote:
This is the hardest road unless Ole Miss just quits on the season.
It has nothing to do with Ole Miss quitting. It has everything to do with them being a talented but thin squad, and injuries catching up to them. Ole Miss's first 22 are great, but their second string is typical Ole Miss. As the season wears on those second stringers are going to have to play more and more snaps, and they will regress.
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