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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:55 am to drizztiger
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:55 am to drizztiger
quote:
Who would that be?
It wasn't directed at you Drizz. I was referring to people in general saying LSU was basically out of it if they lost too Arky.
Even if they did lost to Arky, they'll almost assuredly stay #1 in the computers after that loss because of the quality of the loss.
In Billingsley's poll alone, LSU is 40 points ahead of Alabama and 50+ points ahead of Arkansas going into this game.
Just for an example. Oregon gained about 14 points for beating Stanford. Stanford lost 10 points. That's a net of 24 points. Arky won't gain enough to surpass LSU and likely not Bama who'd beat Auburn and gain around 10 points.
So LSU likely goes to 338ish, Bama up to 315ish, and Arky up to 308ish.
So they'd still be about 30 points behind LSU.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 1:00 am
1
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:57 am to Geaux2002
My biggest fear is actually Arky catching Bama in the computers and then the BCS. I don't think it would happen but might be more likely.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:02 am to lsumatt
quote:
My biggest fear is actually Arky catching Bama in the computers and then the BCS. I don't think it would happen but might be more likely.
I just don't see that happening with Arky's OOC schedule. Even with the 3-4 game bump for the USCe game, the 1-10 New Mexico and 3-8 Troy wins are going to kill them in the computers compared to LSU and BAMA in my opinion.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:07 am to Geaux2002
quote:
the 1-10 New Mexico and 3-8 Troy wins are going to kill them in the computers compared to LSU and BAMA in my opinion.
I am not a big believer in looking at the bottom of the schedule. Crap is crap to the computers. Doesn't matter much if you play a 4-8 or 1-11 team. It is the elite teams that matter.
SC is just as good or better than PSU. And while texas A&M is 6-5, the computers still like them because they played the toughest schedule in teh country
In the end I agree with you.I think Arky is a distant 3rd but if South carolina beats Clemson, A&M beats texas, and Wisconsin beats Penn State, I'll get a little uneasy
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:08 am to lsumatt
quote:
My biggest fear is actually Arky catching Bama in the computers and then the BCS. I don't think it would happen but might be more likely.
in that case Arky could win the SEC... but I'd think LSU would still end up in the BCS NCG
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:15 am to lsumatt
I agree that the A&M/Texas and SC/Clemson games could have a big effect on things, but they'll be behind for sure in Billingsley, and likely at #4 there at best, behind OSU and Bama. That's at best.
I do understand 1-10 isn't much different than 4-8, but 4-18 is significantly different from 10-13 for the combined worst record for Arky's and Bama's worst non-common opponents.
I do understand 1-10 isn't much different than 4-8, but 4-18 is significantly different from 10-13 for the combined worst record for Arky's and Bama's worst non-common opponents.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:38 am to Geaux2002
Let me think of it this way...
Assume Bama beats AU. Bama will not move on it's own. They will depend on other games.
LSU beats Arky - LSU can win/lose to UGA, BCSCG.
Arky beats LSU (close) - Bama/LSU/Arky are 1/2/3 in BCS in some order. Computers are most likely to have LSU/Bama 1/2. Arkansas 3rd even with the win. If the pollsters give LSU enough votes, it's Arkansas OUT the mix, LSU v. UGA SECCG (can't lose 2). If Bama/Arky push LSU to #3 BCS (of the 3) then Bama vs. UGA SECCG. Assuming Bama win, no doubt they are in. That leaves Arky/LSU and OSU>OU for #2.
Make sense?
In this scenario, computers will still like LSU and OSU. But voters need to decide between an Arky team that beat LSU but lost to Bama by 24, an LSU team that lost to Arky, but beat the #1 team already at home, the PAC-12 champ assuming, etc. and OSU which lost to ISU.
Assume Bama beats AU. Bama will not move on it's own. They will depend on other games.
LSU beats Arky - LSU can win/lose to UGA, BCSCG.
Arky beats LSU (close) - Bama/LSU/Arky are 1/2/3 in BCS in some order. Computers are most likely to have LSU/Bama 1/2. Arkansas 3rd even with the win. If the pollsters give LSU enough votes, it's Arkansas OUT the mix, LSU v. UGA SECCG (can't lose 2). If Bama/Arky push LSU to #3 BCS (of the 3) then Bama vs. UGA SECCG. Assuming Bama win, no doubt they are in. That leaves Arky/LSU and OSU>OU for #2.
Make sense?
In this scenario, computers will still like LSU and OSU. But voters need to decide between an Arky team that beat LSU but lost to Bama by 24, an LSU team that lost to Arky, but beat the #1 team already at home, the PAC-12 champ assuming, etc. and OSU which lost to ISU.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:44 am to drizztiger
I got a headache... LSU just needs to win out! 
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:45 am to Me Bite
quote:I got a headache typing it.
I got a headache... LSU just needs to win out!
Of course LSU needs to win out. This discussion is fer nerds.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 1:50 am to Geaux2002
quote:
This season is a lot more like 2003
Very much.
It's got a lot of 2003 (LSU can beat Arky and lose the SECCG to UGA and still make the BCS)
with a side of 2006 (there will be an argument of Bama vs OSU...assuming OSU beats OU)
I see it being 2003 with the opposite of what the voters decided in 2006.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:02 am to lsumatt
Feel a lot better about our chances after reading this thread. Thx Matt
Now, on to the SECr to mess w/ the piggies.
Now, on to the SECr to mess w/ the piggies.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:09 am to tiger1014
quote:2003 was computers and made the AP pull out due to lack of power. 2006 was voters, no rematch, decided by voters.
I see it being 2003 with the opposite of what the voters decided in 2006.
I see a combination of 2003/2006 myself. Both computers and humans will combine to judge. I usually prefer computers > pollsters, but the pollsters HAVE taken the onus to press the reset button and judge on merit.
For that reason alone, I think if it all shakes out it's LSU v. Bama/OSU.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:18 am to lsumatt
quote:
I am not a big believer in looking at the bottom of the schedule. Crap is crap to the computers. Doesn't matter much if you play a 4-8 or 1-11 team. It is the elite teams that matter.
What you just stated is a human sentiment. Crap is crap. To the computers, this is not true at all. This is why we have computers to tell us how bad our crap is versus someone elses.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:26 am to SuperRemo
quote:I think what he's saying is... Computers value wins over quality opponents more than it penalizes wins over shitty opponents.
What you just stated is a human sentiment. Crap is crap. To the computers, this is not true at all. This is why we have computers to tell us how bad our crap is versus someone elses.
Computers are there to tell you how good your wins are compared to as you said, "how bad our crap is versus someone elses"
ETA: But it is all encompassing. Computers account for beating shitty teams and looking pretty by penalizing them. Pollsters stand in awe.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 2:29 am
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:42 am to lsumatt
Crazy stuff, but LSU doesn't lose to the Pigs. (or UGGA) I doubt Auburn beats AL but they're playing at home and I would think will put forth a good effort. All the results of yesterday tell me is how much better LSU is than the rest of college football this year -- OU and Oregon go down, and AL gives up 3 TDs to freakin' Ga. Southern. Really, after LSU wins these next 2 games the Tigers should be declared national champions by public acclamation. 
Posted on 11/20/11 at 5:29 am to drizztiger
I don't see why nobody is saying OK St. will not drop more b/c of losing to a shite team like Iowa St?
Posted on 11/20/11 at 6:17 am to Meaux Bettah
Sounds reasonable to me.
The 03 scenario does kind of foreshadow what we could see this year. (In this nightmare of Arky hypothetically beating LSU)
It was in 03
1 Oklahoma
2 USC
3 LSU
LSU won, USC won, and with Oklahoma losing, it dropped them to 2, but the computers couldn't put USC in first, so that left them on the outide looking in and in 3rd place.
Kind of the way Arky would be if they beat LSU. Arky can't jump a one loss Bama in the polls regardless of what happens in the Arky/LSU game and LSU's strength of schedule won't allow them to drop below Bama. If SEC WEST is tied between LSU and Bama, LSU goes to SECCG due to BCS standings.
Too bad ARKY
The 03 scenario does kind of foreshadow what we could see this year. (In this nightmare of Arky hypothetically beating LSU)
It was in 03
1 Oklahoma
2 USC
3 LSU
LSU won, USC won, and with Oklahoma losing, it dropped them to 2, but the computers couldn't put USC in first, so that left them on the outide looking in and in 3rd place.
Kind of the way Arky would be if they beat LSU. Arky can't jump a one loss Bama in the polls regardless of what happens in the Arky/LSU game and LSU's strength of schedule won't allow them to drop below Bama. If SEC WEST is tied between LSU and Bama, LSU goes to SECCG due to BCS standings.
Too bad ARKY
Posted on 11/20/11 at 6:40 am to lsumatt
Tough on who? That is now becoming the question by the college football world this season. Instead of, ” Is LSU tough enough to keep beating the good college football team on this 2011 LSU schedule." The truth had a way of rising into the sun light. Les Miles trained this LSU team double time to play a hard game against Oregon. They won that first game 40-27. And now we all know that because of that spring & fall training. This 2011 LSU fighting tiger team is a very tough bunch on the LSU opponents.
When the other teams comes to play this year LSU football team. The obvious answer to the question will be ” the LSU football game is going to be tough on you”
The great talent depth on this LSU football team is remarkable. And they have indeed been trained for victory.
When the other teams comes to play this year LSU football team. The obvious answer to the question will be ” the LSU football game is going to be tough on you”
The great talent depth on this LSU football team is remarkable. And they have indeed been trained for victory.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 7:03 am to lsumatt
quote:No one wants them there. They were good when they were (nearly) healthy, but they are a broken team.
Even then, I am doubtful Stanford gets in the BCSNC
With all the chaos is there a chance Houston might get in?
Posted on 11/20/11 at 7:09 am to lsumatt
Matt...thanks again for great discussion on the BCS. I repeatedly asked for your BCS Discussion yesterday to be stickied, and kept bumping it to the top, but this one is even better since it's updated.
I very much appreciate what you do and your thoughtful analysis that is included in your posts.
I very much appreciate what you do and your thoughtful analysis that is included in your posts.
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