but you are simply wrong if you think that a player hurts his chances of making the NFL from there just because they are not as good. There will be fewer Miami players drafted, but that does not hurt the chances of any one individual player from being drafted. Even under sanctions they will probably not be as bad as LSU was from 89-94 and we still had guys drafted in that time frame, just not as many as now obviously.
Well thats just, like, your opinion, man
Really though it has NOTHING to do with Miami being "down" in the sense that they're losing a bunch of games, or even that they have less exposure than they once did. You're right, if you're good enough the NFL is going to find you, regardless of where you go.
You're wrong though in not understanding that how a program is run has an effect on the development of a player.
Take it to a more extreme scenario than LSU vs Miami. Let's say a prospect has an offer from LSU but chooses, for example, Ball State. Do you think his chances of receiving the proper coaching, motivation to become better via competition (earning your way onto the field), and strength and conditioning are not better at LSU? And do you think that has zero impact on his development as a player and subsequenly his draft status?
If you acknowledge that LSU over Ball State is a no brainer, then by extension you have to acknowledge that at the moment LSU is a better place to develop as a player than Miami. Only the margin is, obviously, much smaller.
Other factors come into play. Miami will more than likely have sanctions coming at them soon. There is a likelihood that Al Golden will fail there and get canned, and if he succeeds then there is just as great a chance of a bigger, better program hiring him. New coaches can come in, changes to the current system can be made that are to the detriment of current players (this is particularly important for offensive players), coaches recruit "their guys." Contrast that to LSU where Les Miles just signed a 7-year extension. A prospect can sign here today and be assured that the program that is in place right now will be nearly identical to the one he graduates from in 4 years.
This is approaching TLDR so I'll hang up and listen. And I'm not saying this as an LSU homer because I'll admit that Ed Reed and Reggie Wayne made very good decisions when they chose Miami instead of LSU back in the 90's. At that time, it was a much better place to develop. The opposite holds true today.