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Posted on 5/12/11 at 9:59 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
what would have more loss of life, a catastrophic failure of the morganza or a catastrophic fail of a levee at a heavy populated area in Baton Rouge Or New Olreans
I think Katrina answered that question for everyone.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:01 am to Quidam65
quote:
I think Katrina answered that question for everyone.
And to think this would make Katrina flooding look like a puddle.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:03 am to bayoudude
quote:
And to think this would make Katrina flooding look like a puddle.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:04 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
what would have more loss of life, a catastrophic failure of the morganza or a catastrophic fail of a levee at a heavy populated area in Baton Rouge Or New Olreans
I don't believe the answer to this question is as clear cut as you might think.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:07 am to poule deau
quote:
I don't believe the answer to this question is as clear cut as you might think.
I agree
However, a morganza failure would be much more catastrophic and the entire nation would never be the same
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:07 am to poule deau
quote:
I don't believe the answer to this question is as clear cut as you might think.
I was thinking this same thing. Short term the answer is obvious, but if the Morganza fails then life in BR and NOLA as we know it would cease to exist. Long term I'd say it's probably worse loss of life wise to have the morganza fail
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:10 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
a morganza failure would be much more catastrophic and the entire nation would never be the same
I tend to agree more with this however, I think CTF was leaning the other way.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:14 am to Franktowntiger7
quote:
Just heard on 870AM that the river surpassed the 1.5 yesterday all the way to 1.8 and then fell to 1.6. They say that they now may not open the Morganza and that the water would get within 6in of the levee top in N.O. It seems they are definitely scared of opening Morganza.
They do realize we've got some storms rolling in, right?
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:21 am to Bard
quote:
They say that they now may not open the Morganza
Who is "they" and where did you hear this??
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:22 am to Bard
I call BS on whoever the caller was on that radio show. No way the river can go from 1.5 to 1.8, then back to 1.6 in one day. The BR flow rate is in the 1.3's currently per this [link=(link)]https://waterdata.usgs.gov/la/nwis/uv/?site_no=07374000&PARAmeter_cd=00065,72020,63160,00060[/link].
Go [link=(here)]https://waterdata.usgs.gov/la/nwis/current/?type=flow[/link]to pick your favorite gage location.
Go [link=(here)]https://waterdata.usgs.gov/la/nwis/current/?type=flow[/link]to pick your favorite gage location.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:32 am to TNhillbilly
quote:
I call BS on whoever the caller was on that radio show. No way the river can go from 1.5 to 1.8, then back to 1.6 in one day.
probably the same frickwads that think the rain we are supposed to get tomorrow will affect the river level
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:49 am to Franktowntiger7
quote:
Just heard on 870AM that the river surpassed the 1.5 yesterday all the way to 1.8 and then fell to 1.6.
Not sure where that info is coming from. Check out the conditions for the entire delta as of 0700 this morning.
LINK
Posted on 5/12/11 at 10:51 am to ScottieP
ScottieP:
You seem to be well informed on the situation. Is there any validity to the possibility that they may forgo opening the Morganza Spillway bc they are afraid of losing control?
You seem to be well informed on the situation. Is there any validity to the possibility that they may forgo opening the Morganza Spillway bc they are afraid of losing control?
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:28 am to Early Cuyler
Just telling you guys what anninvitedbguest said on the radio this morning, he could be full of BS for all I know. Shortly after there was a guy come on from the ACOE who said that the decision to open the Morganza will probably come on Sat. He said their would be a period for evacuation and then a gradual opening of the spillway, but not before Saturday.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:33 am to Franktowntiger7
It just seems to me that not opening the MS would be an unnecessary gamble. If you open and lose control...by by NO and BR. If you don't open it...you could still lose NO and BR. If you do open it...you could save NO and BR or it might not be enough.
The only scenario that has the best chance of saving BR and NO is opening it and hoping it is enough.
that's just my uneducated opinion.
The only scenario that has the best chance of saving BR and NO is opening it and hoping it is enough.
that's just my uneducated opinion.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:35 am to Early Cuyler
quote:
If you open and lose control...by by NO and BR. If you don't open it...you could still lose NO and BR. If you do open it...you could save NO and BR or it might not be enoug
Big difference is that if you lose control of the river and it changes course BR and NOLA stay dry. And I honestly think dredging could be done to keep the cities working due to the lower sediment deposits.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:50 am to poule deau
quote:
don't believe the answer to this question is as clear cut as you might think.
Loss of life? I'm pretty sure it is. How many people live in greater NO (and or BR)? How many people live in Morganza spillway affected area? Its not even close.
Economic loss? Yes, its still clear-cut. If the Morganza fails, the river doesn't dry up, it just costs a bunch of money to make it navigable again. Its a problem, but it is fixable. Levee fails in NO and this city is fricking done. That is not fixable.
This post was edited on 5/12/11 at 11:52 am
Posted on 5/12/11 at 11:55 am to Early Cuyler
quote:I don't think that is even close to a possibility. The river doesn't want to go there. There is no channel. It's not currently making a channel. That is a huge wide flat area where Old River floods. If not for the basin, there would just be a normal levee there. If the river wants to go somewhere, it's ORCS.
If you open and lose control...by by NO and BR.
Posted on 5/12/11 at 12:06 pm to choupiquesushi
quote:
probably the same frickwads that think the rain we are supposed to get tomorrow will affect the river level
I'm not sure how much rain we are in store for, but even light showers would be a giant sucking arse because they would soak the levees worse than they are now (the outer side here in BR is still dry).
If the storms drop a few inches though, that's going to effect the river level slightly, but it's going to frick ground saturation in places like Brightside much more.
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