- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Value Based Drafting, Has anyone tried this before?
Posted on 8/21/13 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 8/21/13 at 3:06 pm
basically I want a way to even out all players regardless of their position based on my leagues points rules so that I am drafting the best value every draft pick.
The value basis I have tried has been get all players projected points based on my rules, then to identify the last starter in each position ( projected #12 QB, #24 RB, #36 WR, and #12 TE) and making their value 0 so anyone ahead of him gets their projected points subtracted by his projected points to get their value. After I do this for every position statistically speaking I would be able to just draft the highest value player and be getting the best pick every time and it would standardize the positions. Obviously this doesn't account for everything, injuries, rookie playing time, etc.
Does anyone have any experience using this technique for drafting before? What do you think is best, this or just the old school Eyeball test? maybe i just have too much time on my hands...
The value basis I have tried has been get all players projected points based on my rules, then to identify the last starter in each position ( projected #12 QB, #24 RB, #36 WR, and #12 TE) and making their value 0 so anyone ahead of him gets their projected points subtracted by his projected points to get their value. After I do this for every position statistically speaking I would be able to just draft the highest value player and be getting the best pick every time and it would standardize the positions. Obviously this doesn't account for everything, injuries, rookie playing time, etc.
Does anyone have any experience using this technique for drafting before? What do you think is best, this or just the old school Eyeball test? maybe i just have too much time on my hands...
5
Posted on 8/21/13 at 3:09 pm to Stuckinthe90s
Bro you thinking about it to much. Get you two rb at the start and eyeball the rest.
Posted on 8/21/13 at 3:10 pm to Stuckinthe90s
I think every body who is smart does this in a way, maybe just not quite as in depth.
For example, if you were just drafting people based on how many points you thought they were going to score than QB's would be drafted much higher. Also a guy like Jimmy Graham wouldn't be a second rounder. So everybody does this in a way
For example, if you were just drafting people based on how many points you thought they were going to score than QB's would be drafted much higher. Also a guy like Jimmy Graham wouldn't be a second rounder. So everybody does this in a way
Posted on 8/21/13 at 3:26 pm to Tiger1242
yeah I kind of decided to do that to be able to reaffirm the fact that my eye ball drafting technique was along the correct lines, and the idiot who selects Tom Brady with the first draft pick every year was an idiot. It was surprising to see the results of this though. I will post back with the team I get after my draft next week to see what people think about the results.
Posted on 8/21/13 at 4:25 pm to Stuckinthe90s
Found this earlier today. Can't vouch for it but it seems pretty good to the others who have gotten it working.
Reddit thread
Reddit thread
Posted on 8/21/13 at 5:42 pm to Stuckinthe90s
This is an interesting way to think about it. I do think that this is essentially what I do except that I use my gut instead of adding up the numbers.
The only problem with it is that your charts and ratings are only going to be as good as your projections, which I think are necessarily just slightly better than a crap shoot.
There are probably ways to test various projections and make your own models for the forecasts, but that is just way more work than I have been willing to put into it at this point. Although I have thought about trying to work on it in the past, I just haven't motivated myself enough to actually work on it.
I'm not convinced that good models and forecasts can be made anyway because someone smarter and wealthier than I would have probably already done it for more lucrative ventures than fantasy football.
The only problem with it is that your charts and ratings are only going to be as good as your projections, which I think are necessarily just slightly better than a crap shoot.
There are probably ways to test various projections and make your own models for the forecasts, but that is just way more work than I have been willing to put into it at this point. Although I have thought about trying to work on it in the past, I just haven't motivated myself enough to actually work on it.
I'm not convinced that good models and forecasts can be made anyway because someone smarter and wealthier than I would have probably already done it for more lucrative ventures than fantasy football.
Posted on 8/21/13 at 6:18 pm to Peazey
I actually use Yahoo or FFToolbox projected point values and then create a percentage difference by player from the person ranked ahead, two ahead, and three ahead of each player. My concept is that I will take the position most likely to have the largest percentage drop if I wait to snag that position the next round.
ETA- the key here is QBs 4-8 may all be only slightly different but WR 10 to 13 could mean a huge difference. Therefore it would place a premium on selecting a WR over a QB.
Sheer opportunity costs but I am an economist at heart.
ETA- the key here is QBs 4-8 may all be only slightly different but WR 10 to 13 could mean a huge difference. Therefore it would place a premium on selecting a WR over a QB.
Sheer opportunity costs but I am an economist at heart.
This post was edited on 8/21/13 at 6:20 pm
Posted on 8/21/13 at 6:23 pm to TheVille518518
quote:
Bro you thinking about it to much. Get you two rb at the start and eyeball the rest.
said the last place guy in the league
Posted on 8/21/13 at 6:33 pm to Peazey
quote:
The only problem with it is that your charts and ratings are only going to be as good as your projections, which I think are necessarily just slightly better than a crap shoot.
That's why I make a spreadsheet with 5-6 different site's projections and look at averages and standard deviations.
I love preparing for the draft
Posted on 8/21/13 at 6:59 pm to Stuckinthe90s
I've done this for many years. I was doing it myself years before I ever read anything about it. I really like the system and set up an Excel spreadsheet to make the calculations. I do not however compare each player to the last starter at each position. My theory is with the way I rate players, I never try to end up with a player who isn't in the top half at his position. I compare each player to the mean at his position. Each player gets either a plus or minus score and then I sort all the players out based on this score.
Posted on 8/21/13 at 10:59 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
I actually use Yahoo or FFToolbox projected point values and then create a percentage difference by player from the person ranked ahead, two ahead, and three ahead of each player. My concept is that I will take the position most likely to have the largest percentage drop if I wait to snag that position the next round.
ETA- the key here is QBs 4-8 may all be only slightly different but WR 10 to 13 could mean a huge difference. Therefore it would place a premium on selecting a WR over a QB.
Sheer opportunity costs but I am an economist at heart.
I really like this idea of percentage drop offs for opportunity cost analysis, and I think it would be a great figure to add along with the valuation I am working on. I see it being very useful when thinking one draft pick ahead. Example: If I went with QB1 now I would be left with WR2 next round but if I got WR1 right now I would still be able to get QB2 in the next round.
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News