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re: Hilton or Evans?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:51 am to drizztiger
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:51 am to drizztiger
Drizz, Evans played in 15 regular season games last year, not 16.
Get your facts straight man. It was 7 in 12.
Get your facts straight man. It was 7 in 12.
1
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:52 am to NOFOX
I'm think more receptions and yards w a down tick in TDs. Maybe 85/1200/8, or 253 Ppr points.
Last year 68/1051/12, good for 240 Ppr points
Last year 68/1051/12, good for 240 Ppr points
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:53 am to Lester Earl
quote:
a 21yr old rookie at that. He just made 22 five days ago
And a beast of a WR at 6'5"
Again, if health weren't a concern right now then I'd be all in on Evans over TY.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:53 am to NOFOX
quote:He scored 4 TDs in his last 4 games. 5 TDs in the last 6 games. He scored 7 TDs weeks 11-16.
He faded in weeks 11-16 against some pretty piss poor defenses
What are you talking about?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:55 am to ATLsuTiger
quote:
Again, if health weren't a concern right now then I'd be all in on Evans over TY.
there is no reason to panic about his health. he'll play in week 1 and be fine
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:55 am to Lester Earl
OK? Good to know OBJ came back and performed well.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:56 am to MrWiseGuy
quote:
Drizz, Evans played in 15 regular season games last year, not 16.
Get your facts straight man. It was 7 in 12.
Well to be fair, TY also played 15 games. So let's eliminate 5 TDs from Evans, just cuz... lol, and TY scored 7 TDs in 15 games and Evans scored 7 TDs in 12 games.
But he really faded weeks 11-16, I mean he only scored 7 TDs in those 7 games, what a tool.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:58 am to TigerTatorTots
just saying, sitting out a few weeks as a precautionary measure to insure he is ready for week 1 isnt really a big deal.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:26 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
I'm think more receptions and yards w a down tick in TDs. Maybe 85/1200/8, or 253 Ppr points.
I have Evans for essentially what Jeffery did last year. And these are right there.
85/1133/10 -- Jeffery's 2014 numbers
This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 11:27 am
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:29 am to Lester Earl
quote:
you realzie Evans caught 57% of their TD passes last year, right?
You realize that is an abnormally high percentage of a teams TD's? His rate of TD's/RZ targets was also abnormally high. You don't think these numbers will regress to more normal %'s?
The Bucs do have the schedule working for them, but I think Winston improves only slightly on the QB's last year to 3800 yds and 23 TDs. I think Evans ends up with improved yards/rec and fewer TD's - 75 receptions, 1100 yds, 9 TDs.
I think in standard leagues, Evans is probably the pick over TY due to TD upside, but I also think Evans has a more significant chance of regressing compared to other 2-3 rd WR's.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:46 am to drizztiger
quote:
But he really faded weeks 11-16, I mean he only scored 7 TDs in those 7 games, what a tool.
I meant Weeks 12-17, the Bucs 11-16 games played (last 6 games). Following the CLE, ATL, WAS strecth I referenced, he had 5 TD's in 6 games, but he only averaged 3.5 catches for 43 yds with a 43% catch rate.
He had faded from a rec/yds standpoint while still being heavily targeted. He remained fantasy relevant because an abnormal proportion of TD catches. You can call me a tool for not wanting to rely on outlier TD %'s, but history says he regresses in that area.
This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 11:52 am
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:56 am to NOFOX
quote:
You don't think these numbers will regress to more normal %'s?
normal compared to what?
there arent many WRs in the NFL with Mike Evans' skillset
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:57 am to NOFOX
quote:The tool reference was for Evans, not you. I was calling him a tool for only scoring 7 TDs in his last 7 games.
You can call me a tool
I don't take this personally, bro. I just think you're trying to cherry pick stats and even when you did, Evans comes out looking pretty good.
Also btw, I don't own Evans in any league, it just didn't work out that way. I owned TY in every league I could last year, but have zero ownership this year. I'm not down on TY either, but for OP standard scoring I would go Evans over TY.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 12:16 pm to drizztiger
quote:
don't take this personally, bro. I just think you're trying to cherry pick stats and even when you did, Evans comes out looking pretty good. I'm not down on TY either, but for OP standard scoring I would go Evans over TY.
Evans only looked good in his last 6 games because he caught 5 TD's. I don't think he will do that. I would still take him over TY in standard because of the TD upside for Evans and downside for Hilton, but I think people are overrating Evans based on unrealistic TD expectations.
If he did not have a rookie QB, I would understand the optimism. People seem to be expecting Winston to throw for 30 TD's when in reality he will probably throw 24. I just do not expect Evans to catch half his teams TD's again. TB could also be more efficient running in the RZ this year and provide less RZ passing opportunities. I could see 3-4 TD's thrown to RB's, Jackson with 5-6, ASJ with 3-4, and other WR's like Louis Murphy with 2. That leaves Evans with 7-11 TD's (I'd put him around 9).
Posted on 8/26/15 at 12:26 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
normal compared to what?
there arent many WRs in the NFL with Mike Evans' skillset
To an extent that doesn' matter. If he is the only person on the team catching TD's and does so at such a high %, defenses will start to triple team him to prevent that. You will see TD's to other players increase and there is a limited # of TD's to go around unless you think Winston has a historic rookie season.
Like I said, I see him at 75/1100/9
Posted on 8/26/15 at 12:28 pm to NOFOX
What are you arguing here?
You're predicting Evans with 9 TDs which probably ensures him top 12 at his position.
You're predicting Evans with 9 TDs which probably ensures him top 12 at his position.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 12:45 pm to MrWiseGuy
quote:
What are you arguing here?
You're predicting Evans with 9 TDs which probably ensures him top 12 at his position.
Just showing that you should not expect the same TD numbers from Evans and thus he carries significant risk. Upside potential for standard leagues you would probably pick Evans despite an expected TD regression, his second hamstring issue of the offseason and a rookie QB. I do think Hilton is the safer choice and I would also consider Jordan Matthews in standard leagues.
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