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Daily DFS Thread - 2/11
Posted on 2/11/15 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 2/11/15 at 12:25 pm
I'm struggling to put together a lineup, despite there being 12 games tonight. I'm just not seeing a lot of value based on the prices on the site I'm playing currently(FantasyUp)
Some guys I like:
Harden
Chris Paul
Tyreke(assuming AD is out)
Gordon Hayward
Then for value plays:
Barea
Augustin(maybe)
Some guys I like:
Harden
Chris Paul
Tyreke(assuming AD is out)
Gordon Hayward
Then for value plays:
Barea
Augustin(maybe)
This post was edited on 2/11/15 at 12:32 pm
3
Posted on 2/11/15 at 1:01 pm to shel311
After last week's bloodbath, made about $500 in past 2 nights.
In DFS basketball with good performances you're either reacting to them or anticipating them. When you're anticipating them that's when you make money. Last week I was reacting, this week I'm back to anticipating.
Harden on a back-to-back may not be worth paying up for. Could he have another 60+ point game tonight? Sure but I wouldn't bet on it, he probably ends up with ~40, which at his price tag isn't worth it.
Hayward and Tyreke are always worth rostering IMO due to high usage rates (analytics).
Detroit also on a back-to-back. Meeks seems to florish on these.
Deandre Jordan went ham the other night. This may be a case of reacting to a good perfomance but I don't see anyone in the Dallas frontcourt capable of stopping him. He's a must-play in at least a few of your lineups. They need to keep pace with the Blake injury.
In DFS basketball with good performances you're either reacting to them or anticipating them. When you're anticipating them that's when you make money. Last week I was reacting, this week I'm back to anticipating.
Harden on a back-to-back may not be worth paying up for. Could he have another 60+ point game tonight? Sure but I wouldn't bet on it, he probably ends up with ~40, which at his price tag isn't worth it.
Hayward and Tyreke are always worth rostering IMO due to high usage rates (analytics).
Detroit also on a back-to-back. Meeks seems to florish on these.
Deandre Jordan went ham the other night. This may be a case of reacting to a good perfomance but I don't see anyone in the Dallas frontcourt capable of stopping him. He's a must-play in at least a few of your lineups. They need to keep pace with the Blake injury.
This post was edited on 2/11/15 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 2/11/15 at 1:15 pm to Goldrush25
quote:Mind if I ask around how much you play nightly? Or if not, more to the point, do you usually play, say, 1 GPP for $100/night, or a bunch of smaller ones totalling up to $100, or whatever that amount is?
After last week's bloodbath, made about $500 in past 2 nights
I have such a higher ROI on GPPs and yet either don't play them at all or just throw down a measily $5 a night cause they scare me away when I miss 5 or 6 nights in a row.
quote:Yup. Hayward had a bit of a downstretch, but he's getting bigger minutes and usage lately. He's a fantastic GPP play, but still a good 50/50 play IMO.
Hayward and Tyreke are always worth rostering IMO due to high usage rates (analytics
quote:Good GPP play tonight, risky boom or bust 50/50 play IMO.
Deandre Jordan went ham the other night
Posted on 2/11/15 at 1:30 pm to shel311
I usually play roughly one GPP roster for every two games. However if there are only 2 games on though, I will not play that night. If there are 12 games like tonight, I will fill out about 6-8 rosters at $25 each.
The variance can be a bitch at times (like last week for me), but I understand the nature of it and am at peace with it. It's not for everyone, especially if you want that steady probability of return.
I've found that it's just a numbers' game if you're doing your homework. You make the most optimal decisions that you can based on the information that you have. Sometimes the optimal decisions just don't pan out, sometimes they do. Roughly about every 2 weeks I will fill out a roster where most of my decisions are optimal. Those are the rosters that give me a chance to take down the entire tournament. Whether or not it actually happens is luck.
The variance can be a bitch at times (like last week for me), but I understand the nature of it and am at peace with it. It's not for everyone, especially if you want that steady probability of return.
I've found that it's just a numbers' game if you're doing your homework. You make the most optimal decisions that you can based on the information that you have. Sometimes the optimal decisions just don't pan out, sometimes they do. Roughly about every 2 weeks I will fill out a roster where most of my decisions are optimal. Those are the rosters that give me a chance to take down the entire tournament. Whether or not it actually happens is luck.
Posted on 2/11/15 at 1:45 pm to Goldrush25
quote:Interesting. I may try this if I ever get bored with the 50/50 lineups.
I usually play roughly one GPP roster for every two games. However if there are only 2 games on though, I will not play that night. If there are 12 games like tonight, I will fill out about 6-8 rosters at $25 each
I don't even bother trying to maximize points based on my projection site, I just look for the safest 10 plays I can find, teh guys with the least chance of putting up a dud based on schedule strength/season performance/last 10 games or so. And that's been enough to do well the past 3 months since I started playing DFS.
Posted on 2/11/15 at 5:25 pm to shel311
Is Whiteside going to have his minutes limited again?
Posted on 2/11/15 at 6:01 pm to ReauxlTide222
I haven't heard anything saying that. I think he had a sore foot so with big men that's always a concern but I've seen nothing that says he's affected by it currently. I would deploy as usual.
Posted on 2/11/15 at 7:45 pm to shel311
What does GPP mean?
Posted on 2/11/15 at 7:59 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:It can be a bit misleading. It stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool. Meaning, if there's a $1 tourney with 100 entries, the pool is obviously $100. If only 70 guys sign up(a GPP not filled is called overlay), the site still honors the entire $100 prize pool.
What does GPP mean?
The reason I say it's misleading is, it's commonly used to refer to the bigger tournies, like GoldRush plays. But, for example, I play in 50/50s that are guaranteed prize pools as well. I'm always looking for overlay on 50/50s as well. Think of a 100 player tourney, top 50 paid, but only 80 guys sign up. Instead of having to be top half, I just need to be top 50 of 80.
This post was edited on 2/11/15 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 2/11/15 at 8:14 pm to shel311
That makes sense.
Fanduel has 90% of the pool returned to the players. I understand why you play on Fantasy up, but I play such small amounts that I don't really care that much.
Fanduel has 90% of the pool returned to the players. I understand why you play on Fantasy up, but I play such small amounts that I don't really care that much.
Posted on 2/11/15 at 9:56 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:Yea, and the other main reason is the no rake, and deposit/referral bonuses.
I understand why you play on Fantasy up, but I play such small amounts that I don't really care that much.
Posted on 2/14/15 at 2:06 pm to shel311
No DFS for a week.
FML!!!
FML!!!
Posted on 2/16/15 at 3:17 pm to shel311
Hahaha I got off when the football regular season ended. I made about $1200 total for last year. I started with $100 of play money I had in my PayPal, and got the $100 match. Got up to about $450 at one point, cashed out $350, then piddled around with the rest. Like in a casino, I went up and down, but eventually took my $100 back out when the football ended so all in all I made $350, though my history claims $1200 in winnings. Was a decent experience. I started out decent when basketball started, made $125 opening night of the NBA, but quickly learned a lot of that stuff if full of sharks and analytics guys, so I took my meager winnings and quit. May start up again with baseball though, but I'm not really sure. Loved how it was a great time filler when things slowed down at work. It really was a blast doing some research and what not, but those shark guys are unreal. Or bots.
This post was edited on 2/16/15 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 2/28/15 at 11:41 am to mkibod1
Gotta fire up the daily threads again, just not sure that there's enough interest.
Posted on 2/28/15 at 12:50 pm to shel311
Im gonna play today. First time in 6 weeks
Posted on 2/28/15 at 10:26 pm to shel311
quote:Count me in. The day I posted in this thread was the day I started DF. I'm having a blast so far and would love to discuss some NBA stuff on a regular basis.
Gotta fire up the daily threads again, just not sure that there's enough interest.
ETA: It's very early, and my sample size is REALLY small right now. So these numbers don't hold that much weight, but after tonight I'm 8-1 cashing on lineups with a 1.22 ROI. 3/4 on 50/50, 3/3 on H2H, 1/1 on GPP tourneys(won $20 on a $5 lineup), and 1/1 on Double Up lineups.
Staying with small dollar amounts until I have enough data to trust my strategy. Not really concerned with making any significant gains. Just having a blast crunching numbers and watching the NBA.
This post was edited on 2/28/15 at 11:00 pm
Posted on 3/2/15 at 6:18 am to Nonetheless
quote:Nice, how'd it go?
Im gonna play today. First time in 6 weeks
I have trouble maintaining balance. From last Friday to this Saturday, I won all my 50/50s 7 of 8 nights, had a great run to pad my bankroll and won 1st of 50 in 1 tourney this past Friday night. Then last night, I lost, and I feel like it's all crashing down and maybe I need to take a break.
This post was edited on 3/2/15 at 6:19 am
Posted on 3/2/15 at 2:39 pm to shel311
It's risky, but I'm contemplating not playing Chris Paul tonight.
Posted on 3/2/15 at 6:22 pm to UncleBlazer
I took him, along with Rubio.
Though I thought of sitting Paul for deron Williams to upgrade elsewhere.
Not a lot of good options tonight, lots of high ownerships.
Though I thought of sitting Paul for deron Williams to upgrade elsewhere.
Not a lot of good options tonight, lots of high ownerships.
Posted on 3/2/15 at 8:01 pm to shel311
I'm playing a couple of small tourneys on draftkings tonight.
I went with a stars & scrubs lineup tonight. I went with Paul, Tyreke, Deandre and Whiteside. Then went cheap with QPon, Dante Cunningham, Marcus Morris and Mbah a Moute.
I went with a stars & scrubs lineup tonight. I went with Paul, Tyreke, Deandre and Whiteside. Then went cheap with QPon, Dante Cunningham, Marcus Morris and Mbah a Moute.
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