re: Antonio Brown, is there any reason he shouldn't be a #1 Pick?

the only thing that slows AB down is michael vick. he's largely match up proof. His low end keeps you in contention each week and his high end can single-handedly win you 4-5 games a year. You can't ask for much more than that with your top pick

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Value based positional drafting is a thing of the past

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I think that's a little extreme. Let's just all pick Newton #1 then.

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I think that's a little extreme. Let's just all pick Newton #1 then.

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Thought it goes without saying but I'm talking RB and WR

65% of the top 150 scorers in the last few years has been WR. Couple that with being able to play 3 along wth the RB timeshares and injury, it's basically become a rat race to stockpile high end WRs early if you want an upper hand

I'm don't really see a discernible difference between the top RBs and say tommy Rawls or Carlos Hyde when you start weighing everything and likley outcomes. There is risk all around at RB, top to bottom. Even the good ones

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Thought it goes without saying but I'm talking RB and WR

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If you can admit that there is positional value anywhere then you can still see that the concept has value even if it has changed.

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65% of the top 150 scorers in the last few years has been WR.

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This makes RB more valuable not less. Scarcity creates value.

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I'm don't really see a discernible difference between the top RBs and say tommy Rawls or Carlos Hyde when you start weighing everything and likley outcomes. There is risk all around at RB, top to bottom. Even the good ones

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I think that I agree with this, but I think it may have more to do with some changing of the guard the past top rb's are all aging out. We have a new group replacing them who are unproven. Maybe it's a new paradigm though for standard leagues.

I also think that it makes it more imperative that you get someone at rb in the early rounds or you risk ending up with a black hole or taking a gamble that depends on timing an injury correctly.

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This makes RB more valuable not less. Scarcity creates value.

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No

The position has become too volatile. There is limited value in early RB. So says the data. If you trust the data there is no debate

And I say risky

Obviously you can still hit on an early RB

The only league I've drafted I went Johnson and Freeman 1-2

But I recognize the rush and realize there's a good chance 1 flops. Small chance both flop in a PPR. Medium chance both are pretty good. Small chance both are top 5

I guess the data I would really need to see isn't the 65% number. It would be the bust rate of top rb's vs top wr's. It seems like last year had a lot more rb injuries than normal (gut feeling I haven't seen any actual data). Is it an anomaly or a new norm?

2015 ADP RB's according to FFtoday. LINK
1. Peterson
2. Bell
3. Charles
4. Lacy
5. Lynch
6. Anderson
7. Forte
8. Hill
9. D.Murray
10. Forsett
11. McCoy
12. Miller
13. Gore
14. Ingram
15. L.Murray
16. Martin
17. Abdullah
18. Randle
19. Morris
20. Ellington

Top 40 Players in PPR 2015 Flex scoring
1. Brown
2. Julio
3. Freeman
4. Marshall
5. OBJ
6. Peterson
7. Robinson
8. Hopkins
10. Martin
11. Green
12. Baldwin
13. Miller
14. D. Williams
15. Gurley
16. Gronk
17. D. Johnson
18. Fitzgerald
19. Megatron
20. DT88
21. Cooks
22. Landry
23. Decker
24. Ivory
25. Forte
26. Watkins
27. Hurns
28. Woodhead
29. Maclin
30. Reed
31. L. Murray
32. Sanders
33. McFadden
34. Gore
35. Walker
36. Barnidge
37. Hill
38. J. Matthews
39. Olsen
40. Ingram

8 out of the top 20 ADP RB's finished in the top 40.

nope