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Antonio Brown, is there any reason he shouldn't be a #1 Pick?

Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:28 pm
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:28 pm
I have the #1 Pick in a new 12 team, non-ppr league with a snake draft. I have never taken a WR with a #1 pick, so I think that is really my only hesitation. Everything I have read everywhere says Brown should be #1.

Is anyone else thinking that there is a better option than Brown at #1, or am I just really overthinking this?
Posted by CapperVin
Member since Apr 2013
10531 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:29 pm to
Go ahead and draft Gurly then kiss your season goodbye
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47119 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 8:12 pm to
If you're not in a PPR, I wouldn't draft a WR first.
Posted by dualed
Member since Sep 2010
4689 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 8:49 pm to
I'm picking 1st in a 12-teamer. If you don't go AB, consider David Johnson over Gurley. I rather have a RB in a high powered offense over Gurley who'll be facing a loaded box the majority of the time.
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
28361 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 8:53 pm to
I guess if you like OBJ
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278154 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 9:11 pm to
Cam Newton
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
53730 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:52 am to
quote:

is there any reason he shouldn't be a #1 Pick?


Yes. Especially in leagues that don't give 1 pt per 10 yards rushing/receiving.

Pitt basically led the NFL in redzone rushing attempts last year without L Bell, this year one should only expect more. While Brown is great in yardage bonus heavy leagues, if your league doesn't award a TON of pts for yards, others could be considered. In a career year last year AB was shut out of the end zone in 9 games including a 7 week stretch where he caught exactly one TD and now his offense returns arguable the most talented RB in football.

I don't think AB is a bad pick at 1, but for me the decision comes down to who you like in the 2nd and 3rd. If you take Brown at 1, you better be happy with guys like Hyde as a RB1. For me, I like the WR options in the 2nd round more than I like the RB options. I think it will be much easier to find a WR who will catch 6+ TDs in the 2nd than it will be to find a RB that will rush for that many.

I won't say AB is a bad pick at 1, but I won't say he is the only pick. Think about how the rest of the picks will go till it gets back to you and see how you might look after your first 3 picks, then go win the league with your picks in rounds 4-8. The key in the first round is to just not flop.
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
53730 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 7:55 am to
quote:

If you don't go AB, consider David Johnson over Gurley. I rather have a RB in a high powered offense over Gurley who'll be facing a loaded box the majority of the time.




I think it's close, but I like a guy who gets the ball in the red zone vs a guy who doesn't. More trips to the redzone don't mean as much if you don't get the touches/targets.
Posted by dnm3305
Member since Feb 2009
13546 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:38 am to
quote:

In a career year last year AB was shut out of the end zone in 9 games including a 7 week stretch where he caught exactly one TD and now his offense returns arguable the most talented RB in football.


I agree a lot with what you said, but this is a classic example of correlation does not equal causation. Brown went through a TD drought because of Roethlisberger's absence and not because of Bell's presence. In 2014, Bell had 290 rush attempts for 1361 yds and 8 TD's to go with 105 targets, 854 yds and 3 TD's receiving. In 2014, Brown had 138 receptions on 195 targets for 1815 yds and 13 TD's. They can coexist.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:39 am
Posted by dnm3305
Member since Feb 2009
13546 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:43 am to
quote:

I think it's close, but I like a guy who gets the ball in the red zone vs a guy who doesn't. More trips to the redzone don't mean as much if you don't get the touches/targets.


Brown had 23 red zone targets (tied for 2nd most) and caught 69% of them for 8 TD's. In 2014, he had 33 red zone targets (tied for 2nd most) and caught 54% of them for 8 TD's. He had 18 targets inside the 10 yard line.
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
53730 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:49 am to
quote:

Brown had 23 red zone targets (tied for 2nd most) and caught 69% of them for 8 TD's. In 2014, he had 33 red zone targets (tied for 2nd most) and caught 54% of them for 8 TD's. He had 18 targets inside the 10 yard line.


That comment was in response to the guy who suggested Johnson over Gurley. It was not discussing AB in red zone targets. I was saying I like Gurley over Johnson because he gets more touches in the red zone. Johnson gets more targets in the redzone but he is clearly the 4th option in the passing game down there behind Fits, Brown and Floyd.

I do agree when compared to WR's, AB is the guy...clear cut. I look at Pitts 46 red zone rushes with Williams but adding L Bell and I am predicting more redzone attempts for him that what Williams had.

Posted by dnm3305
Member since Feb 2009
13546 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:50 am to
quote:

That comment was in response to the guy who suggested Johnson over Gurley. It was not discussing AB in red zone targets. I was saying I like Gurley over Johnson because he gets more touches in the red zone.


Oh, I see. My mistake.

Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
53730 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:51 am to
quote:

They can coexist.


I agree they can and I think AB will have a hell of a year, I just don't expect him to duplicate the career year he had last year without Bell on the field. Like I said, I don't think AB is a bad pick at 1 by any means....I just think there are other viable options.

shite, I am faced with the same decision (10 man leage) and I go back and forth all day. I just hate the RB1 options when I pick in the 2nd/3rd. I like the WR1 options at that spot much, MUCH better.
Posted by dnm3305
Member since Feb 2009
13546 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:04 am to
quote:

I like the WR1 options at that spot much, MUCH better.


In your situation, it's got to be tempting to take AB, then take another one of those WR 1's in the 2nd if they fall and then piece together RB's. I feel RB is the most fluid and injury filled position so there will constantly be options presenting themselves.

My situation, (10 team ppr) I have no.2 overall pick and Im keeping Gurley so it's not exactly like yours as my RB1 is sitting nice. I will take OBJ at no.2 overall and then best available player from there on out. Targeting McCoy at that no.19 pick but doubt he falls so it will more than likely be a WR there and perhaps even on the turn.
Posted by Ryan423
Member since Apr 2013
325 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:44 am to
What worries me is whether Big Ben can stay healthy or not. You face the uh oh factor of its not just your WR getting hurt but also the QB throwing the ball to him.
Posted by OhioLSUfan
Columbus, OH
Member since Oct 2007
1278 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:35 pm to
He should be #1 unless your a Gurley-man
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25418 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:21 pm to
My thinking is probably completely obsolete, but I just feel a little uncomfortable selecting a wr that early in a standard league. PPR it is a great pick. It just seems like those rb's disappear fast, and I can find startable wr's later in the draft.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
71957 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:31 pm to
I'm not even considering position here

I want the guy who can get me close to 2k yards and 10 TDs. Who has the best shot at that?

Antonio Brown
David Johnson
Lamar Miller
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
53730 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

I'm not even considering position here


But should you? The goal is to assemble the best team, not the best player with the first pick. Don't you have to think about how this pick effects the rest of your draft?

This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 1:36 pm
Posted by dnm3305
Member since Feb 2009
13546 posts
Posted on 8/25/16 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

But should you? The goal is to assemble the best team, not the best player with the first pick. Don't you have to think about how this pick effects the rest of your draft?


I have to have insane value at another position for me not to draft the best player available. I'll draft WR's 4 picks in a row for the first 4 rounds if they all fall right.
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