- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Pels exercise fourth year option on AD
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:02 pm
Surprise!
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:04 pm to quail man
Didn't use it on Rivers.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:18 pm to THRILLHO
quote:damnit
Didn't use it on Rivers.
Posted on 10/24/14 at 5:26 pm to quail man
Biggest mistake ever.
He's never going to amount to much.
-Boom
He's never going to amount to much.
-Boom
Posted on 10/24/14 at 6:29 pm to THRILLHO
not picking up rivers was the only smart play but honestly I've been afraid they would do it anyway
he will be on the aminu plan
Sign for one year and see how it goes
This team needs options and this gives them at least one to work with
he will be on the aminu plan
Sign for one year and see how it goes
This team needs options and this gives them at least one to work with
Posted on 10/25/14 at 11:17 am to Capt.Pelican
If he stays healthy, he is about to get one big arse raise around this time next year, to lock him in for the next 4-5 years.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 11:19 am to cgrand
quote:
not picking up rivers was the only smart play but honestly I've been afraid they would do it anyway
Yep. He is proving quite overpaid. If he shows significant improvement, bring him back at a reasonable salary.
I need to see more, but it looked like he had cleaned up his FT form a bit, and the results look promising. Maybe the mid-range improvements he worked so hard on were at the line.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 11:34 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:it's going to suck when he goes off this year and we can't afford him
Yep. He is proving quite overpaid. If he shows significant improvement, bring him back at a reasonable salary.
Posted on 10/25/14 at 3:48 pm to Fearthehat0307
quote:
it's going to suck when he goes off this year and we can't afford him
thanks for that
I needed a good chuckle
if he gets better it means the team gets better so I'm all for it. he's just not good enough to be a top of the rotation player on a good team. There are dozens of players they can have for 3.1MM that are better
Posted on 10/25/14 at 10:30 pm to cgrand
quote:
Sign for one year and see how it goes
If Rivers doesn't take off this year, it's not going to happen here. Too many big money contracts on the horizon to invest $4 to $5 Mill in him. I always felt it was a wasted 1st rounder and it looks like that's the case.
This post was edited on 10/25/14 at 10:35 pm
Posted on 10/26/14 at 9:23 am to quail man
Not sure enough people actually read this link posted in another thread on option year players.
LINK
Also on Jimmer's projection.
I'm rooting for both guys to play well. They're Pelicans now. Same time, I am a healthy skeptic of their viability. The Pelicans don't need much more than not awful from either guy barring injury. But they haven't been able to clear that bar on a regular basis thus far.
LINK
quote:
Few topics draw a stronger emotional response than pessimism towards young players. NBA teams selecting near the top of the draft are investing their sole reward for suffering through a miserable season, making the resulting players the focal source of hope for dejected fans. This hope tends to soldier forth, even when the on-court production falls well below expectations. September and October is the time when every fan is convinced their underwhelming lottery picks are just one offseason of “losing 15 pounds”/”training with Kobe”/”working out with a former navy seal”/”having their [vision : deviated septum : tonsils : ingrown hair] corrected”/”working with a shooting-coach”… from leading them to the promised land. It often seems that front-office personnel feel a similar emotional investment in their young players.
This response is not very surprising. Teams select players who they think will become valuable contributors. Fans may or may not initially share this evaluation, but most eventually fall in line. This sets everyone’s expectations to “positive.” Positivity is probably a wise approach for psychological well-being, but it creates a collective atmosphere of confirmation bias. People automatically focus on events that support their view of the world, but deftly ignore those that do not. Add in the community element of similarly incentivized observers, and it takes overwhelming evidence to reach the point where folks know it just is not going to work out.
Sustained support of poor-performing youngsters is bolstered by the popular opinion that you cannot judge a prospect early in his career. There are certainly exceptions, but usually you know a ton about a player just one season into his career. The standards are much lower for younger players, but generally good young players become great players and bad young players eventually drop out of the league. There is nothing wrong with a little hope, especially in the service of supporting young men in their careers. However, the necessary roster spots and cap-space come at the expense of fringe prospects looking for a chance, and useful veterans hoping to continue contributing in the league. These opportunity costs should become a major consideration as we approach the October 31 deadline for picking up rookie-scale options.
quote:
Everyone knows that young players improve as they mature and gain experience. The relationship between age/experience and production has been captured in many studies showing expected improvement between seasons. This approach is understandably unpersuasive to those considering the tradeoffs of abandoning a young prospect. Sure, the guy hasn’t been very good, but you do not want him to suddenly realize his true potential then hit free-agency the following summer. The concept of linear improvement does not fit the intuitive model that fans are really working from. The gamble is all about paying in cap and roster flexibility while hoping the prospect explodes into a highly-productive and underpaid player.
In order to capture this approach, I built multinomial regression models to generate the odds a given player’s career will ultimately peak at one of five different levels:
“Bust”: Never worth more than 2.5 wins in a season.
“Bench warmer”: Peak value between 2.5 and 5 wins.
“Starter”: Peak value between 5 and 7.5 wins.
“Stud”: Peak value between 7.5 and 10 wins.
“Star”: Ultimately worth more than 10 wins in a season.
[“Wins” are determined using a combination of Win Shares and RAPM-wins]
The models are trained on 20 years of historical data and use age, experience, NBA production, and prior expectations to make predictions.
quote:
Clear opt-ins: Anthony Davis looked like the best NCAA prospect since Shaq. He has since backed that up with two seasons of dominant production (though his RAPM has been surprisingly mediocre). Davis’ option is the easiest decision a team will ever make. The 4% chance that he fails to become more than just a starter is basically the odds he suffers a career-ending injury
quote:
Austin Rivers, Thomas Robinson, and Meyers Leonard. These players have done little to demonstrate their ability to compete in the NBA. It is highly unlikely that this changes in 2015
Also on Jimmer's projection.
I'm rooting for both guys to play well. They're Pelicans now. Same time, I am a healthy skeptic of their viability. The Pelicans don't need much more than not awful from either guy barring injury. But they haven't been able to clear that bar on a regular basis thus far.
Posted on 10/26/14 at 9:28 am to corndeaux
Interesting. Also worth noting for the monday morning quarterbacks that the picks directly after rivers are just as bad as he is.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:17 am to quail man
quote:
Also worth noting for the monday morning quarterbacks that the picks directly after rivers are just as bad as he is.
That's the one thing that keeps me from hating the pick. I'm definitely hoping Rivers improves, and will never root against him, but he still has a way to go to be a rotational player on a good team. The drop off after Lillard/Drummond, and even Ross, who I really like before the draft, was huge.
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News