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re: Is 10-2 out of the question?

Posted on 3/26/21 at 2:39 pm to
Posted by zadams_318
McKinney, TX
Member since Aug 2019
470 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

reading comprehension


No shite. But the fact is you are settling with losing to Bama and another powerhouse SEC program. Kinda sad really
Posted by LifeAquatic
Member since Dec 2019
1795 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

The way we played at the end of the season we were a 9-3/8-4 team as it was.


I'm extremely optimistic about the upcoming season, and I absolutely LOVED the way the team fought in those last few games (particularly against Ole Miss and Florida), but they weren't actually playing like a "9-3/8-4" team.


If you look at post-game win expectancy and S&P+ and all those fancy numbers, we actually got severely outplayed by both florida *and* ole miss, and won the games based on sequencing and other non-repeatable/non-predictive factors. The post game win expectancy against florida was like 1% (the single lowest post-game win expectancy win of the entire season for any team) and like 11% for Ole miss. Even the arkansas game should've been a loss based on those numbers IIRC.


Again, I'm exceedingly confident in this team and i think last year was a total one-off based on ridiculous attrition and new (and shitty) coaches with no offseason--but we're getting ahead of ourselves a bit if we say that we were already playing at a high level towards the end of the year. We won those games, but on the backs of some pretty flukey TO/penalty/special teams/sequencing stuff.


I know I'll get downvoted because math sucks and LSU is the greatest and blah blah blah, but just figured I'd add some information. FWIW, I think we're gonna be 10-2 this coming year
This post was edited on 3/26/21 at 2:45 pm
Posted by The First Cut
Member since Apr 2012
14012 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

Next year could be a great year to spring board into 2022 for a title run


2022 will have 5 new starters on the OL. It will not be title run season. This is the year.
Posted by benoit_BayouBengals
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2015
2421 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 3:02 pm to
10-2 should not be the expectation before the year. The goal is a national title at LSU.
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
57827 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

2022 will have 5 new starters on the OL. It will not be title run season. This is the year.


The pieces aren’t matched up this year. If you’re expecting a championship, it’s your own fault.
Posted by The First Cut
Member since Apr 2012
14012 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

The pieces aren’t matched up this year. If you’re expecting a championship, it’s your own fault.


If you think you're making a title run with 5 new starters on OL then your disappointment is your own fault.

The Tigers can make a run this year. I'm not saying I expect it, but they can make a run.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
261685 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

The Tigers can make a run this year.


Bingo.

I expect 10-2 or better.
Posted by lpb tiger
Member since Mar 2021
389 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 4:00 pm to
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20463 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

But the fact is you are settling with losing to Bama and another powerhouse SEC program. Kinda sad really

It's hard to talk football with some people here

EVERYONE wants 15-0.
The fact of the matter is, you have Alabama, Auburn, Florida and A&M on schedule. Unless you're an NFL team, you have to acknowledge the fact that you're likely going to lose a game.

10-2 is definitely doable. Gun to my head, we go 3-1 against that group- Bama as the loss, but I can see 3-0 at home against Auburn, A&M, and Florida. It's kinda crazy, the one team from that group that waxed us (Auburn) is the one in the most turnover going into next year. Florida is losing a lot on offense, and A&M seems like it's a rebuild for them after last year.

Worried a bit about road games in Miss, Ole Miss might give us trouble.
Posted by Lsutigerturner
Member since Dec 2016
5836 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 5:17 pm to
No this year should be the year last year may have fricked up the cohesiveness and losing talent like gilbert and the recruiting list out on what could have been so it's this year I think or two years from now
Posted by Purple Tiger King
Member since Jan 2021
2016 posts
Posted on 3/26/21 at 5:18 pm to
I'm going to say 11 & 1 with a loss to Alabama. I think we beat Florida, Auburn, and Texas A&M not only because they are all home games, but all of them have significant rebuilding to do.

I think the defense, after an off season in 2020, will be very much improved in 2021, and I think the offense will be more consistently good than it was last season.
Posted by St Jean The Baptiste
Laredo, TX
Member since Aug 2015
5828 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 11:02 am to
quote:

But the fact is you are settling with losing to Bama


I said, "Okay, fine," meaning that it's probable. I'll still feel like shite if we lose to Bama. It's probably going to happen, although I like our chances a little bit more because the game is in Tuscaloosa, because for some reason we play Bama better there.

If we can go 2-1 against a combination of Auburn, Florida, and A&M, three teams that finished with a better record than us last year, I would take it, and most rational LSU fans would as well.

Going 10-2 would be awesome, considering the fact that we are one year removed from finishing 5-5. If you believe LSU will go 11-1 or 12-0 that's great, but the question was, "Is 10-2 out of the question," not "Are you a complete psycho if you think LSU will finish better than 10-2" which is the way you read it because your reading comprehension is shite.

This post was edited on 3/27/21 at 11:04 am
Posted by rar
Member since Dec 2020
311 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 5:31 pm to
Well...isn't that important.
Posted by Catchaser
Member since May 2010
92 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 5:51 pm to
Florida and Auburn very beatable. A&M will be a fight...a lot of returning starters, but a question at QB. Bama lost a lot and will have a young, talented team and with their recruiting efforts they will be tough in 2022....but so shall we. I see a good season for LSU, but still some questions on defense to be worked through. Bama, LSU and A&M will battle it out in the west.
Posted by Lithium
Member since Dec 2004
62112 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 6:06 pm to
If this team isn't 9-3 there should be changes.
Alabama? Max or Myles will have more experience.
we have a chance. I'll be betting on the Tigers as soon as the line comes out. I had LSU +16 1/2 vs Bammers in 2019
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6--Brazos River Backwater
Member since Sep 2015
26363 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 6:50 pm to
quote:

overrated as frick past year

I don't think so. 8-1 last year and then plastered UNC in the Orange Bowl. Many felt the Aggies should have been a playoff team.

A&M will be a tough out as long as Jimbo is roaming the sideline. Member when the Rant collectively rent their garments and cried out when he signed the A&M contract? I do.
Posted by calcotron
Member since Nov 2007
8314 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 6:54 pm to
Top middle ranked defense in the SEC combined with experience returning on offense...10 wins is the floor.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66858 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

I don't think so. 8-1 last year and then plastered UNC in the Orange Bowl. Many felt the Aggies should have been a playoff team.



Their best win was 8-4 Florida and they got waxes by Alabama.

They were overrated as frick. Maybe the best of the rest but not close to a team that could actually compete

This post was edited on 3/27/21 at 11:02 pm
Posted by LSUStar
Medellin
Member since Sep 2009
10453 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 11:29 pm to
Why the eff can’t this GD team eat Alabama?
Posted by HonCHO
Bawcomville
Member since Nov 2020
49 posts
Posted on 3/27/21 at 11:34 pm to
I wouldn’t expect anything better
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