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Started By
Message
re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
Posted on 9/1/23 at 9:16 am to Beerinthepocket
Posted on 9/1/23 at 9:16 am to Beerinthepocket
I've been in her ear about SLI since she was campaigning. She's well aware of it. Westerman has been putting in work trying to get some of those gubment bucks. The state is fully supportive and understand what it would mean to the state and area for the lithium boom to be centered in south Arkansas. Lot of big money invested in SLI.
1
Posted on 9/1/23 at 3:29 pm to SmackoverHawg
Off topic but..Come see what a boom has done to nashville. You probably dont really want a boom if you like your state how it is.
Posted on 9/2/23 at 8:57 am to LChama
quote:
Off topic but..Come see what a boom has done to nashville. You probably dont really want a boom if you like your state how it is.
It's easier to steer a moving vehicle.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 12:11 pm to ev247
Albemarle about to acquire Liontown, FWIW.
Liontown's economics seem similar to Standard's. The difference is that Liontown is expecting production for its Southwest Arkansas-sized Kathleen Valley project in 2024 (SWA production expected 2027). No Lanxess comparison. Unsure how Liontown's later (Buldania) project looks or how their expansion plans would compare with Standard's Texas expansion. Didn't do a ton of research on any of this.
Liontown is a hard-rock miner so they don't share SLI's risk of not scaling.
Let's scale this thing and fast-forward a quick 3 years to be in position for a similar offer, netting around $25/share.
Liontown's economics seem similar to Standard's. The difference is that Liontown is expecting production for its Southwest Arkansas-sized Kathleen Valley project in 2024 (SWA production expected 2027). No Lanxess comparison. Unsure how Liontown's later (Buldania) project looks or how their expansion plans would compare with Standard's Texas expansion. Didn't do a ton of research on any of this.
Liontown is a hard-rock miner so they don't share SLI's risk of not scaling.
Let's scale this thing and fast-forward a quick 3 years to be in position for a similar offer, netting around $25/share.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 5:36 pm to ev247
quote:
Liontown is a hard-rock miner so they don't share SLI's risk of not scaling.
Hard-rock lithium mining is nasty. Takes a whole lot of water too.
Posted on 9/6/23 at 1:13 am to Auburn1968
Giddy up!
LINK
Standard Lithium Ltd. (“Standard Lithium” or the “Company”) (TSXV:SLI) (NYSE American:SLI) (FRA:S5L), announced today the positive results of a Definitive Feasibility Study (the “DFS”) for its first commercial lithium extraction plant project (“Phase 1A”) proposed to be located at the LANXESS South Plant (“South Plant”). The DFS considers first production of battery-quality lithium carbonate in 2026, using direct lithium extraction, from Smackover brine currently being produced by LANXESS Corporation (“LANXESS”) from their South Brine Unit.
All figures are in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Phase 1A Highlights:
First production in 2026. Average annual production of 5,400 tonnes per annum (“tpa”) over the operating life with peak annual production of 5,700 tpa25-year minimum operating life. Proven and Probable Reserves of 208 Kt lithium carbonate equivalent (“LCE”) at an average concentration of 217 mg/L support up to 40 years of operationsStrong project economics. After-tax NPV $550 million and IRR of 24% assuming discount rate of 8% and a long-term price of $30,000/t for battery-quality Li2CO3Operating costs reflect first step to commercial production. Average annual operating costs of $6,810/t over the operating lifeCAPEX of $365 million. Total capex estimate of $365 million includes 15% contingencyUpgraded Measured Resource. Total Measured and Indicated Resource of 2.8 Mt LCE at average concentration of 148 mg/L for the combined LANXESS South, Central and West Brine Units; Phase 1A represents production of approximately 5% of the total Measured and Indicated Resources
LINK
Standard Lithium Ltd. (“Standard Lithium” or the “Company”) (TSXV:SLI) (NYSE American:SLI) (FRA:S5L), announced today the positive results of a Definitive Feasibility Study (the “DFS”) for its first commercial lithium extraction plant project (“Phase 1A”) proposed to be located at the LANXESS South Plant (“South Plant”). The DFS considers first production of battery-quality lithium carbonate in 2026, using direct lithium extraction, from Smackover brine currently being produced by LANXESS Corporation (“LANXESS”) from their South Brine Unit.
All figures are in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Phase 1A Highlights:
First production in 2026. Average annual production of 5,400 tonnes per annum (“tpa”) over the operating life with peak annual production of 5,700 tpa25-year minimum operating life. Proven and Probable Reserves of 208 Kt lithium carbonate equivalent (“LCE”) at an average concentration of 217 mg/L support up to 40 years of operationsStrong project economics. After-tax NPV $550 million and IRR of 24% assuming discount rate of 8% and a long-term price of $30,000/t for battery-quality Li2CO3Operating costs reflect first step to commercial production. Average annual operating costs of $6,810/t over the operating lifeCAPEX of $365 million. Total capex estimate of $365 million includes 15% contingencyUpgraded Measured Resource. Total Measured and Indicated Resource of 2.8 Mt LCE at average concentration of 148 mg/L for the combined LANXESS South, Central and West Brine Units; Phase 1A represents production of approximately 5% of the total Measured and Indicated Resources
Posted on 9/6/23 at 1:20 am to Ballstein32
Finally!
Only took 3 yrs, 3 months, one day and 825 pages, but we got here. Now we start the clock on the FID.
Wine Mixer: ON [MAYBE] OFF
Only took 3 yrs, 3 months, one day and 825 pages, but we got here. Now we start the clock on the FID.
Wine Mixer: ON [MAYBE] OFF
Posted on 9/6/23 at 1:26 am to ev247
DFS PR is out
Phase 1A highlights:
- First production in 2026
- After-tax NPV $550 million
- Avg annual production 5,400 tons
- Capex $365 million
- Opex $6,810/ton (surprising?)
"Standard Lithium expects to make a Final Investment Decision (“FID”) related to Phase 1A in the first half of 2024, subject to continuing project definition, finalization of commercial agreements with LANXESS and project financing initiatives. Assuming a positive FID, the Company expects to commence construction in 2024 and reach commercial production in 2026."
Eta Might change my name to redundant247 but I did all this typing for yall so I'm leaving it up.
O'Doul's mixer: [Probable] Improbable
Phase 1A highlights:
- First production in 2026
- After-tax NPV $550 million
- Avg annual production 5,400 tons
- Capex $365 million
- Opex $6,810/ton (surprising?)
"Standard Lithium expects to make a Final Investment Decision (“FID”) related to Phase 1A in the first half of 2024, subject to continuing project definition, finalization of commercial agreements with LANXESS and project financing initiatives. Assuming a positive FID, the Company expects to commence construction in 2024 and reach commercial production in 2026."
Eta Might change my name to redundant247 but I did all this typing for yall so I'm leaving it up.
O'Doul's mixer: [Probable] Improbable
This post was edited on 9/6/23 at 1:36 am
Posted on 9/6/23 at 2:06 am to Ballstein32
Posted on 9/6/23 at 3:21 am to LSUSLU106
Shazam!
Posted on 9/6/23 at 4:25 am to KCRoyalBlue
what a sigh of relief.
Im a bit confused about this part, though. Where did the 90 day timeline from DFS to FID come from? I was under the impression that it was some sort of regulatory requirement. I couldnt find any reference to that on the google
quote:
Standard Lithium expects to make a Final Investment Decision (“FID”) related to Phase 1A in the first half of 2024, subject to continuing project definition, finalization of commercial agreements with LANXESS and project financing initiatives
Im a bit confused about this part, though. Where did the 90 day timeline from DFS to FID come from? I was under the impression that it was some sort of regulatory requirement. I couldnt find any reference to that on the google
Posted on 9/6/23 at 5:14 am to ev247
A few highlights for those not wanting to read the entire PR
quote:
Phase 1A marks the beginning of a series of lithium projects we've charted across the Smackover Formation,
quote:
We're also actively exploring opportunities within the U.S. Critical Mineral initiatives and the Inflation Reduction Act, focusing on non-dilutive funding solutions to advance our goals.”
quote:
The Company has undertaken efforts to effectively de-risk the construction process for Phase 1A and ensure on-time delivery. This includes a Term Sheet with the nominated EPC contractor, Optimized Process Designs LLC, which sets out construction performance and schedule guarantees to ensure on-time construction,
quote:
he lithium processing facility is designed to process a tail brine flowrate of approximately 5 million m3/yr from the South Plant. The Demonstration Plant, currently operating at the South Plant, has the ability to process 11.4 m3/hr or 50 US gallons per minute resulting in a modest 60 times scale-up required for the proposed first commercial production facility.
The DFS for Phase 1A does not contemplate any potential future increase in brine production by LANXESS above current South Plant brine production levels, nor the construction of additional brine supply and disposal wells which could result in increased lithium carbonate production through a future expansion of the processing facilities.
quote:
Standard Lithium has been developing two forms of direct lithium extraction at the Demonstration Plant: the Company’s proprietary LiSTR process and a co-developed Lithium Selective Sorption (“LSS”) process. LSS is a Koch Technology Solutions, LLC (“KTS”) proprietary technology. Under the Joint Development Agreement with KTS, Standard Lithium has Smackover regional exclusivity for the LSS process (see news release dated 9th May 2023).
Both the LiSTR and LSS DLE processes have been successful in selectively extracting lithium from Smackover brine; however, the Company currently expects to use the LSS technology as the basis for the Project based on improved economics as well as the expected performance guarantees to be provided by KTS. Use of KTS’ LSS technology is subject to the parties entering into a license agreement and other definitive documentation related to the technology.
quote:
Next Steps and Recommendation
The Phase 1A DFS results demonstrate a robust technical and financial case for Standard Lithium to proceed with project development. The Company expects to make a Final Investment Decision in the first half of 2024, and assuming a positive FID, commence construction and deliver commercial production in 2026.
Posted on 9/6/23 at 6:02 am to Dock Holiday
“The Company expects to make a Final Investment Decision in the first half of 2024“
Think this is what stands out in the release for me. Everything was looking good till that line. What’s the buzz, on getting this off the ground, even?
Think this is what stands out in the release for me. Everything was looking good till that line. What’s the buzz, on getting this off the ground, even?
Posted on 9/6/23 at 6:08 am to CamdenTiger
quote:
Think this is what stands out in the release for me
share price will slide further bc of this. we wont get any momentum until we can feel the earth shake from the piles being driven
Posted on 9/6/23 at 6:21 am to jamiegla1
quote:
share price will slide further bc of this.
I actually think as a whole the price won't move much up or down today, or rest of this week.
Looks like the current team at SLI wants to move forward, so FID is more about how or who will fund the 1A project.
Posted on 9/6/23 at 6:52 am to Dock Holiday
Yeah, we'll see if it picks up when the market opens, but I'm afraid what I posted a few weeks ago might be true:
Hopefully we can do better than just getting back to where we already were. I hate this stock market. A PR delay loses you 25%+. Then when said PR does come the needle barely moves.
quote:
What's tough is even if we end up getting the DFS announced tomorrow, we need a 25% pop just to get back to last week's high.
Hopefully we can do better than just getting back to where we already were. I hate this stock market. A PR delay loses you 25%+. Then when said PR does come the needle barely moves.
Posted on 9/6/23 at 7:19 am to Ballstein32
Not sure why, but I had a very strong feeling today was going to be the day.
Some quick hitters for me (similar to everyone's so far):
Total Capex is about in line, maybe a bit higher than expected. We were at ~$180M for phase 1 in the PEA in 2019. Doubling that in the current economy seems like there were no unexpected major line items and the 2019 PEA was fairly accurate.
Opex per ton is about right at $6800. Again, 2019 PEA opex/ton estimate was $4,300 so this is a large net improvement on the bottom line when considering the increase in lithium prices since then.
FID baffles me and I'll be asking the company for some clarity on this. In no way do I think 1H 2024 is a good timeframe to put out there. I am 100% certain that they have to make FID within 90 days of filing this report. Now, I do not know when they will file the report so that could throw everything for a loop. But I think they whiffed here. Q1 '24 would have been a nicer timeline and still very accurate, imo. Unfortunately I think the market is going to see this timeline and come to the conclusion that the next milestone may not occur for 9 months. Not generally great for share price short term. Hope I'm wrong.
Lastly, very interesting quote to put in the article:
Have to have alot of confidence to include something like that in a PR. This is what I'm leaning on to support the share price. I'm hoping that investors put WAY more risk on a positive DFS than I personally had, and this derisks the opportunity.
I'll dig a bit deeper into the PR throughout the day, glad to finally have it. Wish we would have gotten some more clarity on funding, partnerships, and timeline but....oh well
We'll see how the market reacts.
Some quick hitters for me (similar to everyone's so far):
Total Capex is about in line, maybe a bit higher than expected. We were at ~$180M for phase 1 in the PEA in 2019. Doubling that in the current economy seems like there were no unexpected major line items and the 2019 PEA was fairly accurate.
Opex per ton is about right at $6800. Again, 2019 PEA opex/ton estimate was $4,300 so this is a large net improvement on the bottom line when considering the increase in lithium prices since then.
FID baffles me and I'll be asking the company for some clarity on this. In no way do I think 1H 2024 is a good timeframe to put out there. I am 100% certain that they have to make FID within 90 days of filing this report. Now, I do not know when they will file the report so that could throw everything for a loop. But I think they whiffed here. Q1 '24 would have been a nicer timeline and still very accurate, imo. Unfortunately I think the market is going to see this timeline and come to the conclusion that the next milestone may not occur for 9 months. Not generally great for share price short term. Hope I'm wrong.
Lastly, very interesting quote to put in the article:
quote:
The Phase 1A Project is substantially de-risked as we move rapidly towards commercialization.
Have to have alot of confidence to include something like that in a PR. This is what I'm leaning on to support the share price. I'm hoping that investors put WAY more risk on a positive DFS than I personally had, and this derisks the opportunity.
I'll dig a bit deeper into the PR throughout the day, glad to finally have it. Wish we would have gotten some more clarity on funding, partnerships, and timeline but....oh well
We'll see how the market reacts. This post was edited on 9/6/23 at 7:28 am
Posted on 9/6/23 at 8:02 am to Fe_Mike
I don't know what they could have done different besides be punctual with pr dates and studies. But my Oct calls bought 2 1/2 months ago in anticipation of the DFS are dead.
Posted on 9/6/23 at 8:25 am to Fe_Mike
Pretty modest premarket volume today - looking to be potentially as uneventful as the SW Ark PFS. Small move up.
Hopefully it can at least reverse the trend for a bit and stop this slide through the $3's.
Hopefully it can at least reverse the trend for a bit and stop this slide through the $3's.
Posted on 9/6/23 at 8:35 am to Fe_Mike
Woof, actually went red at the open.
Market doesn't like it. Not good.
Market doesn't like it. Not good.
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