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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:11 pm to Large Farva
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:11 pm to Large Farva
quote:
Just passed 5 Military Humvees pulling small boats heading towards nola.
time to blow up some levees
1
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:11 pm to Duzz
Per update at 4:56, NWS Slidell calling for 25-35 sustained winds on the Northshore, with gusts to 50. Unchanged from this morning.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:12 pm to Jim Rockford
a 6pm curfew for that shite? wtf
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:12 pm to Theboot32
quote:
What should I expect in mandeville?
quote:
I'm thinking since its looking more like a Biloxi/mobile landfall and will likely be a lopsided storm we won't see much, is that fair?
Im in the area too.
There is still room for error o landfall. The storm is going to change a lot tonight and will show its cards in the morning. I would advise to stay very alert about this situation, its definitely concerning at the moment.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:13 pm to rt3
I hear W and his pops were just seen at Gus' Tackle in Slidell gearing up.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:14 pm to rds dc
quote:
I don't know but I was going to wait for a VDM before posting that number
Well, this is much more reasonable:
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 22:11Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2017
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Third flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 21:42:46Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°39'N 85°34'W (20.65N 85.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 90 statute miles (145 km) to the ESE (113°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,037m (9,964ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the N (352°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 108° at 42kts (From the ESE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.36 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 35°C (95°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NNW/N (349°) from the flight level center at 21:35:18Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNW (328°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 315° at 2kts (From the NW at 2mph)
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:14 pm to Muriel
Looks like the confirmed pressure is 994. Lower than expected, but a far cry from 983.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:16 pm to slackster
994 better than 983 by a long shot.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:16 pm to slackster
This thing is humming past Cancun and up to the coast. If I had Nate pick me up a margarita from the beach it would still be cold when he got here.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:17 pm to t00f
Yeah 983 would be the bottom falling out. I'd still say we are in worse shape than we expected at this point in time.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:18 pm to rds dc
Ok...much much better.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:20 pm to OceanMan
quote:
I'd still say we are in worse shape than we expected at this point in time.
from 40 mph to 50 mph wind gusts? ok
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:21 pm to rocket31
quote:bruh you going come pass a good time at my hurricane party?
rocket31
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:23 pm to OceanMan
quote:
I'd still say we are in worse shape than we expected at this point in time.
12z Euro had 994 for 21z, so this is about what was expected. I will say that sat appearance is better than expected and continues to improve. The Euro weakens it a bit over the next 12 hrs, so the key will be what we see while recon is in the storm. If we see steady drops with continued improvements in sat appearance then that would be a concern.
ETA: 18z GFS with a slight shift east and about the same strength. It shows slow steady strengthening from here to landfall but is weaker than what recon showed at 21z.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:23 pm to SuperSaint
i was but ol mitch put a curfew on our asses at 6pm for a 40 mph gust of wind
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 5:24 pm
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:25 pm to t00f
quote:
994 better than 983 by a long shot.
Yea 983 would be strong cat 1 typically. That would have been bad news.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:25 pm to rocket31
quote:
i was but ol mitch put a curfew on our asses at 6pm for a 40 mph gust of wind
does anyone really listen to him?
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:26 pm to rocket31
It's cool, Cannizarro's niece will be there, ain't nobody getting prosecuted for anything at my fais do do 
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:26 pm to rocket31
Hmmm Nate is gonna make people nervous. The east side still looks disorganized but looks like he’s getting his shite together fast.
I have folks in Houma and the Westbank not really knowing to go west or not.
I have folks in Houma and the Westbank not really knowing to go west or not.
Posted on 10/6/17 at 5:26 pm to rt3
Rules were made to be broken.
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