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Message
How unreasonable is 8.0 ypc for LF7?
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:17 am
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:17 am
Looking back at Reggie Bush's unbelievable years, he averaged 8.7 ypc his junior year, granted much less carries and very different style back, but comparing sophmore years, leonard had 6.5 LINK compared to Reggie's 6.3 ypc LINK.
If Harris plays well, and Guice is a back that can split some heavy load, that has to open up the holes more for leonard, i don't think 8.0 is overly far fetched heading into this year.
If Harris plays well, and Guice is a back that can split some heavy load, that has to open up the holes more for leonard, i don't think 8.0 is overly far fetched heading into this year.
11
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:18 am to Chad504boy
If he averages 8 ypc, he might hit 3,000 yards.
Or looking at it another way, he won't average 8 ypc. Different offenses, different styles, different amount of carries.
Or looking at it another way, he won't average 8 ypc. Different offenses, different styles, different amount of carries.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:19 am to Chad504boy
pretty unreasonable with the type of offense we run and the amount of carries he will get
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:19 am to tlsu15
Are you convinced LF7 will average the same amount of carries per game? I'm not. Last year was 25 carries a game.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:21 am to Salmon
quote:
pretty unreasonable with the type of offense we run and the amount of carries he will get
Agree.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:21 am to Salmon
quote:
pretty unreasonable with the type of offense
*removing bama game*, he averaged 6.8 last year. Its not unreasonable to remove that game because LF also lost the mcneese state game last year, are we not expecting a better YPC this year?
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:21 am to Chad504boy
quote:
If Harris plays well
well so much for that
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:24 am to Chad504boy
Not impossible, but extremely unlikely.
No matter how improved the passing game may be, the Miles/Cameron offensive approach is predicated on the I formation running game, with LF taking the majority of his carries between the tackles. That approach is effective when the offense has balance, but predominately will include rushes of 1-5 yards with the occasional homerun. LF had a ton of homerun carries last year, and yet still averaged 6.5. To expect his explosive, 40+ yard runs to increase significantly enough to raise his average by 1.5 yrds/carry is unrealistic IMO.
No matter how improved the passing game may be, the Miles/Cameron offensive approach is predicated on the I formation running game, with LF taking the majority of his carries between the tackles. That approach is effective when the offense has balance, but predominately will include rushes of 1-5 yards with the occasional homerun. LF had a ton of homerun carries last year, and yet still averaged 6.5. To expect his explosive, 40+ yard runs to increase significantly enough to raise his average by 1.5 yrds/carry is unrealistic IMO.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:25 am to Piscinin
The only important factor that I'm not very tuned in on is our expectations for o line compared to last year's unit
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:29 am to Chad504boy
From a mathematical perspective, it is doable. If LF can break a 50 yarder every 10 carries (very doable), he only has to average 4 yds per carry on the other 9 carries (again very doable).
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:32 am to Garnertigah
any year, we can look back and say what could have been but i do recall a couple long runs being taken back due to some bs calls or penalties. He wasn't as far off last year as we think in a true sophmore season. pretty fantastic.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:32 am to Chad504boy
he will be used for 3rd and short, and goal line situations every single time
it'll be difficult to keep that high of a YPC
it'll be difficult to keep that high of a YPC
Posted on 7/27/16 at 9:38 am to Garnertigah
quote:
If LF can break a 50 yarder every 10 carries (very doable),
Really?!?!?
There were only 4 games last year where Fournette had a 50+ yarder, and he had 300 carries.
By your math, he should've had 30 (!) runs of 50+ last year.
I love Fournette too, but damn, there's no earthly possibility of him ripping off a 50 yarder every 10 carries. That's just flat out absurd.
This post was edited on 7/27/16 at 10:00 am
Posted on 7/27/16 at 10:01 am to atltiger6487
quote:
Really?!?!?
There were only 4 games last year where Fournette had a 50+ yarder, and he had 300 carries.
By your math, he should've had 30 (!) runs of 50+ last year.
I love Fournette too, but damn, there's no earthly possibility of him ripping off a 50 yarder every 10 carries. That's just flat out absurd.
look at it like this, last year he averaged 25 carries a game. Take same carries and lets say he averages 5.0 ypc for 22 carries and 3 carries of at least 25 yards average. Fairly reasonable, that alone puts him at 7.4.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 10:49 am to Chad504boy
If he averages 8.0 ypc Les will never throw it.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 11:06 am to NWLA Tiguh12
quote:
If he averages 8.0 ypc Les will never throw it.
or he's avging 8.0 ypc bc he's throwing it.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 11:24 am to Chad504boy
Yep, he broke those long runs with the box loaded up on him last year. Harris having a better year throwing the ball would keep the defense honest against the run.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 11:32 am to GMoney2600
Breaking a long run is easier when the safeties are up and the box is loaded. One good hole, make one cut afterwards and it's a foot race.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 11:33 am to olgoi khorkhoi
5 yard runs become 12 yard runs easily without the safeties in the box.
Posted on 7/27/16 at 11:38 am to olgoi khorkhoi
Once Fournette gets into the 2nd level...it's not very pretty for the defense. It's actually pretty embarassing. Most safeties in college football can't keep up with his speed. Some corners can't either. They're lucky if he just trucks them over and falls on top of them.
This post was edited on 7/27/16 at 11:49 am
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