re: MLB Trade Deadline Thread (8/1: Rangers acquire Lucroy and Jeffress)

quote:

---

Sale and Eaton for Moncada and Bradley Jr.

---

quote:

---

I think the probability of the Cubs trading Schwarber for Miller or Chapman straight up is bloody unlikely.

---

quote:

---

Last year, Schwarber made contact on just 67% of his swings, and perhaps more importantly, only 75% of his swings on pitches in the strike zone.

---

quote:

---

Dating back to 2008, there have been 620 player-seasons in which an age-25-or-younger hitter has come to the plate at least 250 times. Of those 620 player-seasons, Schwarber’s 2015 in-zone contact rate ranked 614th, so this wasn’t just your run-of-the-mill low-contact rate for a young power hitter.

---

quote:

---

Postseason included, Schwarber hit 21 home runs last year, but only six doubles and one triple, so 75% of his extra base hits were home runs. That’s why Schwarber had a .273 ISO, just a tick shy of Giancarlo Stanton‘s career .274 mark.

---

quote:

---

Over the last 10 years, in fact, no player has even managed to put up a HR/XBH rate of even 60%. Among qualified hitters, the highest percentage of extra base hits to go for home runs from 2007-2016 belongs to Adam Dunn, at 59%. Jim Thome comes in at 58%, then you have Russell Branyan and Chris Carter at 57%, Jason Giambi at 56%, and Alex Rodriguez at 55%. The modern super-sluggers, Stanton and Davis, are both at 54%.

---

quote:

---

Take away a few of those homers, and now the skillset is starting to look more like Mike Napoli.

---

quote:

---

Given the fickle nature of relief pitching, it’s not like Miller is a franchise player either, and it’s easy to see why the Cubs might not want to give up five years of a potential above-average everyday player for two and a half years of a reliever. After all, if Schwarber is even just an average player, you’re giving up something like +10 WAR in future production, and the Cubs would be lucky if Miller gave them +5 WAR over the next two-and-a-half years.

---

quote:

---

How much you want to discount future wins is far more art than science, and will be different for every team. For an organization like the Cubs, with a real chance to win the World Series for the first time in 108 years, I think you have to put a pretty significant discount on future wins.

---

quote:

---

Like, say, adding Aroldis Chapman to the deal. Putting Chapman and Miller in the Cubs bullpen, along with Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop, would give the Cubs the best bullpen in baseball, to go along with all the other things they’re the best at. And at that point, the short-term upgrade would be large enough that I think the Cubs would have to at least consider moving Schwarber.

---