re: Official Wk 4 College FB Bet Thread (Swiggety Swooty, I'm Commin for that Booty)

I love home underdogs. Thinking Arizona may be a play.

Here are the sharp plays of the week... I don't have a play on any of them(yet) but in my opinion these are the sharp bets on the board:

Cincinnati +11 - Memphis stock is high as they are 3-0. Cincinnati stock low with Kiel out.

Oregon State +15.5 - Stanford stock sky high after USC win. Due for a letdown on a Friday Night, even though Oregon State is terrible

Texas State +15 - Houston stock high after Louisville win and Texas State down after losing at home to Southern Miss. Letdown spot for Houston

Connecticut +6.5 - Connecticut defense deserves more credit. UCONN already played similar offense in Army, won by 5. Navy miles better than Army but UCONN defense is playing well.

ECU +8 - Virginia Tech stock high after Purdue blowout and ECU down after Navy blowout loss. But ECU always plays well in this game

SDSU +15 - SDSU stock down after South Alabama loss, Penn State high after Rutgers blowout. But Penn State offense is still bad, asking them to cover 15 is asking a lot. SDSU defense above average.

Kansas +12.5 - Everyone is down on Kansas and rightfully so. But Rutgers is just as big of a dumpster fire right now.

Arkansas State +7.5 - Everyone is high on Toledo right now, but Toledo failed to cover this number last week against a team of similar strength. Toledo offense still a major question mark.

Duke +9.5 - Everyone down on Duke after Northwestern loss, but Duke played solid defense against Northwestern and plays Georgia Tech well every year. 9.5 a lot to cover on the road after a tough loss

Vanderbilt +24.5 - Ole Miss is probably the squarest play of the week and perhaps the year. After the Bama win their stock is high. Unlike when Vandy covered against Georgia when everyone was on Georgia 2 weeks ago, they are on the road. Every sign points toward Ole Miss in this game. Which is why Vandy is the sharp side.

Florida International +15 - FIU stock is falling after Indiana loss and UCF win no longer looks good. Louisiana Tech up after Kansas State 3OT game.

Rice +34.5 - Everyone picks Baylor to cover these games, but IMO Rice is better than the SMU and Lamar teams Baylor has already played. Driphus Jackson is a good QB. Rice can move the ball.

Arkansas +7.5 - A&M is the 2nd most square play on the board this week after Ole Miss. A&M stock is inflated, Arizona State isn't as great as it was with ASU needing a late TD to pull away from Cal Poly and 1st half struggles with New Mexico. Also Nevada was able to move the ball and did some good things defensively. Arkansas stock couldn't be lower after their last 2 games and yet the line is only 7.5? Line stinks. Arkansas is the play.

Miami Ohio +20.5 - Western Kentucky in a letdown spot after undefeated season run ended last week. Miami played tough vs. Cincinnati in a loss. Western Kentucky defense has been better than expected but offensively they haven't clikced yet.

Kent State +9 - Kent State has looked like garbage offensively but so has Marshall. 9 is a lot to cover for a struggling offensive team on the road. Kent State defense stepped up last week.

UTSA +9 - Colorado State coming off two overtime losses in a row and now have to go on the road. UTSA has played like shite offensively the last 2 games, but competition will get a bit easier at home.

UCF +14.5 - Both teams are a mess injury and personel wise right now. As bad as UCF has been offensively, defensively they have been able to hold their ground. 14.5 is too much for a South Carolina team who is also struggling.

Appalachian State -7.5 - Road team favored by 7.5 a sharp play? It is in this situation. Old Dominion is not good - Barely beat Eastern Michigan, unimpressive vs. Norfolk State, laid an egg at home last week despite a sellout crowd. Appalachian State not quite as good as NC State but better than the other 2 teams. Should be double digits

Ball State +18.5 - Stock high for NW right now especially with Stanford beating USC. But offensively Northwestern still has problems so 18.5 is asking a lot. Kick return and fumble return accounted for 14 of 19 points against Duke.

Arizona +4 - Arizona stock would be higher if not for UTSA opener. That game clearly an outlier, throw it out and Arizona has overachieved last 2 games. UCLA has not had a truly impressive win yet.

Washington +4.5 - Everyone high on Cal after Texas win. Letdown spot for Cal. Washington has overachieved this year in every game they have played.

San Jose State -4.5 - For some reason Fresno State continues to be treated like they are the same team they were 2 years ago. Fresno is one of the worst teams in FBS.

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accnodefense

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Nice post. Agree with about 90%.

Can you post the sheets?

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Not to down your picks. I actually really appreciate your model. But just for accuracy last week your model had OD/ NCState over 62 for 91.1% and that missed also

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You are right... I had it as 81.1 on a spreadsheet, typo on my end. So 13-2 on the year.

So fade all those??

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ACC, keep us posted on those 90% picks. might be nice to sprinkle on

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West Virginia -16.5 is the only side this week but line is -17.5 right now so that would definitely knock down the percentage

Glad I jumped on it last night

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Not sure what the line is now but I will continue to fade Kansas until they prove they can cover

Got Rutgers -13.5 Sunday night. I know they're not good but with how awful Kansas plays at home, I can only imagine what going halfway across the country to Piscataway will be like

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Pump the brakes, bud. I am all aboard the fade Kansas train, but you have to be drunk, or just stoopid, to lay 13.5 with Rutgers right now.