re: Tom Cruise leaving Church of Scientology

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I thought they knew all of his dirty secrets and he couldn't leave. I guess we'll soon find out how much of a perv he is.

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I think they'll make a deal in which both sides agree to give the public impression of an amicable parting and neither will criticize the other nor expose any secrets. Assuming they both have enough dirt on each other to achieve their mutual assured destruction, and in spite of how irrational their supposed belief system is, Cruise and the church both have too much to lose from a public squabble and will likely act in their own best interests.

Of course, there's also the fact that, if the "dirt" they have on him is homosexuality as many suspect, their leverage over him is steadily diminishing as public attitudes change on the subject. Exposing him as gay would likely not have nearly the consequences for him today that it would have had back when he first joined, or even just a few years ago. Meanwhile, whatever dirt he has on them is probably just as damning now as it ever was. These considerations also might cause them to make a deal with him. As a bonus, they'll also get the opportunity to publicly debunk one of the widely-believed (because it's true) criticisms of the church--that members are blackmailed into staying by the threat of being ruined by the exposure of their darkest secrets if they leave.

Of course, if he is able to separate from the church peacefully and without being attacked publicly, there's the question of what other church members might do after seeing that. They could be emboldened to leave the church themselves, hoping for a similar result. But, I have a feeling the church will be able to communicate effectively the same message they have been all along regarding Tom Cruise relative to other members. What he can do and what he gets and what they can do and what they get are very different things.