Tie Breaker Scenarios for NFC South

The division will come down to us an Atlanta. I have added the most plausible outcomes in parentheses.

Saints remaining schedule:

Carolina (W)
@Chicago (L- playing on Monday night against Bears team with 11 days rest)
Atlanta (W)
@Tampa Bay (W)

Falcons remaining schedule:

@Green Bay (L)
Pittsburgh (W)
@New Orleans (L)
Carolina (W)

If this is the case, New Orleans wins the division outright. But if Atlanta somehow manages to beat both Green Bay and Pittsburgh and we both finish at 8-8, the tie breakers go into effect:

1) Head to head: would be the same at 1-1.
2) Division record: would be the same at 5-1.
3) Common opponents: the Saints and Falcons have 8 common opponents. We have already clinched this tie breaker, as we are 3-4 in common games with one game left. The Falcons are 0-6 in common games with two games left.

Tl;dr version: If Saints win their three remaining division games, they win the NFC South, regardless of the Chicago game or how Atlanta finishes. If we lose any of these three division games, winning the division becomes highly unlikely.