re: LSU Chances at the CFB Playoffs.... (A Deep Look at the Rest of 2014)

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Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row? Because it needs to happen for LSU to get where we want them to get.

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Alabama needs to be stopped by us first, AU second.

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Why would we need Auburn to beat Alabama? It's just the opposite. The only realistic way for LSU to win the west requires that Alabama (and someone else) beat Auburn, and the only realistic way LSU gets into the playoff is to win the west and the SECCG.

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#2 Florida State (7-0, 4-0) - Could end up dropping their next game @ Louisville and either Miami or Florida.

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Louisville is a longshot, and the other two have zero chance.

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#8 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0) - They will lose to Ohio State, I promise you that.

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I don't know where you're getting that from. Michigan State has a defense, Ohio State doesn't. There's every indication that this year's game will be just like last year's Big Ten championship game.

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#15 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1) - @ Wisconsin, only chance LSU has at them going to two losses

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The Big Ten championship game against either Michigan State or Ohio State has a much better chance than the Wisconsin game of giving Nebraska another loss.

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#16 Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) - Will beat Michigan State but not Michigan

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Why in the world would they not beat Michigan? Michigan is horrible. I get the rivalry game thing, but that hasn't helped Michigan much in recent years. Ohio State will beat Michigan.

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#12 Arizona (6-1, 3-1) - @ UCLA and @ Utah should be two losses so not really worried about them.
#13 Baylor (6-1, 3-1) - Oklahoma or K-State, pick the one you want because they will not beat them both.
#14 Arizona State (6-1, 4-1) - Utah, Notre Dame, Arizona... Hmmm

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Wow, there are a lot of assumptions in there, especially when you also throw this in...

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#17 Utah (6-1, 3-1) - Too many ranked games ahead. Might get ugly fast.
#18 Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2) - 5 games left, at least one of them will go bad, probably two

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In all honesty, I think the only chance we have is to win the SEC West in a tiebreaker and beat Georgia in the SECCG. Do that, and I think we're in regardless of what others do. Anything short of that, and we're out.

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They played South Carolina, who already has 4 conference losses. Georgia would have at least 2 losses in this scenario. I wouldn't assume Auburn is a certainty in a 5 way tiebreaker.

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Currently:

Georgia and South Carolina (Auburn): 6-5 with remaining games vs. Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida twice. They should combine to win at least three (UT and UFx2) and probably four (assuming UGa beats UK) of those five. Final projected combined record of 9-7 or 10-6

Florida and Kentucky (LSU): 4-6 with remaining games vs. Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia twice. Realistically, they cannot win more than four of those six (neither of them is beating Georgia). Final projected combined record of 8-8 or worse.

Florida and Tennessee (Alabama): 2-7 with remaining games vs. Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt twice, South Carolina twice. Their best hope is to win four or five of those seven (loss to Georgia and at least one more). Final projected combined record of 6-10 or 7-9.

Ole Miss and MSU both have Vanderbilt anchoring them down with a projected 0-8 record, while MSU has Kentucky and Ole Miss has Tennessee to try to counterbalance that. No chance for either of these teams to win on this tiebreaker.

If it gets down to this tiebreaker, Auburn is pretty much a lock. Only LSU has any kind of hope to match them (which would require a major upset by Florida or Kentucky), and even we almost certainly can't do better than them (which would require two major upsets). So, even in what is essentially the worst case for Auburn, it still becomes a two-way tie between Auburn and LSU, which Auburn wins on head to head.

LSU must win out

Mississippi State has to lose 3. If Arky pulls the upset this weekend, then I'll start getting excited. They play @ Bama and @ Ole Miss.

Auburn needs to beat Ole Miss this weekend, then lose @ Georgia and @ Bama.


Standings would then be:
LSU 6-2 (holds tie breaker over Ole Miss & Bama)
Ole Miss 6-2
Alabama 6-2
Mississippi State 5-3
Auburn 5-3
A&M (Who Cares)
Arkansas (Who Cares)

Tiger Fans...this is absolutely possible. Teams we need to lose have tough road games coming up. LSU needs to win out, and then we'll have to be Roll Tide fans moving forward

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You listed 14 games. We are #19. That means that if every single one of the games you listed caused someone who is currently ahead of us to fall behind us (which is extremely unlikely, especially because there are several teams that play in more than one of the games you listed, so not every game will even necessarily produce a different and unique loser for us to leap over), that still would not get us into the top 4.

No 2-loss team that doesn't win its conference championship is getting into the playoff. Not even from the SEC West.

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You may very well be right; it's just fun to think about different scenarios.

I guess the point I had was, there are only 15 teams between LSU and the #4 spot. With all the football left and cannibalization that will occur, there could be a scenario where a 2-loss SEC team who didn't win its division could get in. Not saying it's likely, but what if:

-MSt wins out (13-0); they're in
-FSU wins out (13-0); they're in
-Ducks win out (12-1); they're in
-The Big 12 continues to beat itself up, leaving everyone with 2+ losses.
-ND loses to ASU or Louisville (likely)
-Nebraska loses to Wisky but beats the MSU/OSU winner in the B10CG
-there is a pack of 2-loss SEC teams, and LSU is considered the hottest (the "they are a different team than they were vs MSt and @ Aub" narrative is entirely possible)

Then who gets in as the #4 seed?

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No 2-loss team that doesn't win its conference championship is getting into the playoff. Not even from the SEC West.

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I don't believe this statement is true. It could happen, but it is not likely. Just like our chances of making the playoffs this year.

An example would be if a two loss team from the West this year could still be ranked in the top 4 at the end of the year due to other conferences' best teams losing 1-2 games to worse opponents.

You can't tell me a one loss Ohio St/Arizona St./Florida St. team is guaranteed to get into the playoffs prior to a two loss SEC West team, especially if the one loss team outside of the SEC had a bad loss to a scrub team.

Louisville should have won last night. They fricked up. Bad bad bad.

Oh well, once again, Florida state finds a way to win. In the history of college football, when a team squeaks by like that, they end up losing a game no one else expected. (I.e. Miami or florida)

the scenario is being looked at from a logical mathematical angle...
that's no longer 100% of it.

now...we have humans and politics

These HUMANS will be enamored on the WIN OUT concept w the sports media all over it.
..it is not like the math formula.

if we win out only.... (otherwise - it does not matter who/what)

I think they would make us # 4

This may be a case in which the COMMITTEE may help LSU.

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we do not .... just win out and we'll be in ... the momentum and "sports chat" will get us there.

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Beating Bama would give us a big boost, but even though our losses are to top teams, they're still on our resume. My position is that if we win the SEC, we're in. If we don't, we're out, even if we win out.

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if we win the SEC, we're in. If we don't, we're out, even if we win out.

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how are you going to win the sec if we do not win out ?

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Are you on crack? Alabama can win out if LSU beats them. And Ole Miss only needs to lose to Auburn. LSU would hold the tiebreak over both.

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And when you dream, dream big.......