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LSU Chances at the CFB Playoffs.... (A Deep Look at the Rest of 2014)

Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:00 pm
Posted by tadelatt
Buga Nation
Member since Jan 2010
12253 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:00 pm
As of today, three SEC schools are ranked in the Final Four slots to make the CFB Playoffs. (Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss) Florida State hasn't been dominate all season. In fact, they should have loss twice already. Right Irish?

Fun look at the scenarios that could play out in the following weeks. (Based on CFB Rankings)

First, the SEC West

#1 Mississippi State (7-0, 4-0)

11/1 - vs. Arkansas - L
11/8 - vs. Tenn. Martin - W
11/15 - @ Alabama - L
11/22 - vs. Vanderbilt - W
11/29 - @ Ole Miss - L

Arkansas isn't as bad as the record shows. They have lost their last three SEC games by they were all close. They lost to Alabama by 1, Georgia by 7 (Trailed 38-6 at the half), and the Aggies in OT (They were ranked #6 at the time). Alabama just won't lose to both teams from Mississippi. It just won't happen. Ole Miss needs the win to stay alive. Their defense is legit and by then, State will be done anyways.

#3 Auburn (6-1, 3-1)

11/1 - @ Ole Miss - W
11/8 - vs. Texas A&M - L
11/15 - @ Georgia - L
11/22 - vs. Samford - W
11/29 - @ Alabama - W

Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row? Because it needs to happen for LSU to get where we want them to get. Also, the Aggies will end up playing like they were three weeks ago and score 50+ on Auburn in a shootout that may go extra time.

#4 Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1)

11/1 - vs. Auburn - L
11/8 - vs. Presbyterian - W
11/15 - BYE
11/22 - @ Arkansas - L
11/29 - vs. Mississippi State - W

Arkansas just needs to show up. Auburn too. Too much offense and running the ball just might shut down the defense that the rest of the nation was raving about. LSU showed them all that if you can run against Ole Miss, you can win. Remember, LSU left 10 points on the field, could have changed the entire game.

#6 Alabama (7-1, 4-1)

11/1 - BYE
11/8 - @ LSU - L
11/15 - vs. Mississippi State - W
11/22 - vs. Western Carolina - W
11/29 - vs. Auburn - L

Alabama needs to be stopped by us first, AU second. Things can happen quickly for LSU if they beat Alabama. They can happen if quicker if they win easily and with an exclamation point.

#19 LSU (7-2, 3-2)

11/1 - BYE
11/8 - vs. Alabama - W
11/15 - @ Arkansas - W
11/22 - BYE
11/27 - @ Texas A&M - W

LSU can't lose another game. Plain and simple.

Final Projected SEC West Standings (Based on the above layout)

LSU - 6-2
Ole Miss - 6-2
Alabama - 5-3
Mississippi State - 5-3
Auburn - 5-3
Texas A&M - 4-4 or 3-5 (Doesn't matter at this point)
Arkansas - 2-6

Although we don't control our destiny, it isn't as far fetched as once believed anymore. LSU can make the CFB playoffs and win the SEC too.

Other Ranked Teams to watch

#2 Florida State (7-0, 4-0) - Could end up dropping their next game @ Louisville and either Miami or Florida.

#5 Oregon (7-1, 4-1) - Stanford, Utah, or Oregon State. At least one of these is going to be a loss

#7 TCU (6-1, 3-1) - @ WVU, vs. Kansas State, @ Kansas, @ Texas, vs. Iowa State - No possible way TCU remains this hot after the toughest part of their schedule just ahead of them. They could lose the next two games very easily.

#8 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0) - They will lose to Ohio State, I promise you that.

#9 Kansas State (6-1, 4-0) - Three road games against ranked opponents including @ Baylor to end the season.

#10 Notre Dame (6-1) - Is there a ND clause that says they are allowed in the Playoffs if they play at least two ranked teams? Either way, Arizona State and Louisville stand in there way. Otherwise, be worried about were they stand right now.

#11 Georgia (6-1, 4-1) - Regardless of ranking, still have to play in the SEC Championship.
#12 Arizona (6-1, 3-1) - @ UCLA and @ Utah should be two losses so not really worried about them.
#13 Baylor (6-1, 3-1) - Oklahoma or K-State, pick the one you want because they will not beat them both.
#14 Arizona State (6-1, 4-1) - Utah, Notre Dame, Arizona... Hmmm
#15 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1) - @ Wisconsin, only chance LSU has at them going to two losses
#16 Ohio State (6-1, 3-0) - Will beat Michigan State but not Michigan
#17 Utah (6-1, 3-1) - Too many ranked games ahead. Might get ugly fast.
#18 Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2) - 5 games left, at least one of them will go bad, probably two
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:02 pm to







Posted by LSU
Houston
Member since Oct 2003
8828 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:03 pm to
I think the 5 way tie in the SEC West actually has a slight chance of happening.


MISSISSIPPI STATE (4-0 in SEC) beats Arkansas on Saturday, loses at Alabama on Nov. 15, beats Vanderbilt on Nov. 22 and loses at Ole Miss on Nov. 29. … 6-2.


AUBURN (3-1 in SEC) wins at Ole Miss on Saturday, beats Texas A&M on Nov. 8, wins at Georgia on Nov. 15 and loses at Alabama on Nov. 29. … 6-2.


OLE MISS (4-1 in SEC) loses to Auburn on Saturday, wins at Arkansas on Nov. 22 and beats Mississippi State on Nov. 29. … 6-2.


ALABAMA (4-1 in SEC) loses at LSU on Nov. 8, beats Mississippi State on Nov. 15 and beats Auburn on Nov. 29. … 6-2.


LSU (now 3-2 in SEC) beats Alabama on Nov. 8, wins at Arkansas on Nov. 15 and wins at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night. … 6-2.
Posted by Chadwick
Member since Aug 2011
5080 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:04 pm to
But if for some crazy reason none of that happens, I'm content with a win over bama, aTm and arky.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:05 pm to
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:06 pm to
If there are a lot of two loss teams, this whole committee thing will turn into a shite show with the quickness.
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
72401 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:06 pm to
The 5-way tie would be crazy. It would have to go to records of East opponents as a tiebreaker, which Auburn would almost certainly win. If you give Auburn a loss at UGA but keep the rest of this the same, we win the West.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:07 pm to
We need aubie to lose twice more
Posted by LSU
Houston
Member since Oct 2003
8828 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:10 pm to
quote:

which Auburn would almost certainly win.


They played South Carolina, who already has 4 conference losses. Georgia would have at least 2 losses in this scenario. I wouldn't assume Auburn is a certainty in a 5 way tiebreaker.
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
72401 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:14 pm to
OK, maybe it's not for sure, but Auburn is the only one in the top 5 of the West who plays UGA. Missouri plays A&M and Arkansas, so they don't matter for this. Everyone else in the East has a losing SEC record.
This post was edited on 10/28/14 at 10:15 pm
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164014 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

#3 Auburn (6-1, 3-1)

11/1 - @ Ole Miss - W
11/8 - vs. Texas A&M - L
11/15 - @ Georgia - L
11/22 - vs. Samford - W
11/29 - @ Alabama - W

Has Auburn ever beating Alabama twice in a row? Because it needs to happen for LSU to get where we want them to get. Also, the Aggies will end up playing like they were three weeks ago and score 50+ on Auburn in a shootout that may go extra time.

#4 Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1)

11/1 - vs. Auburn - L
11/8 - vs. Presbyterian - W
11/15 - BYE
11/22 - @ Arkansas - L
11/29 - vs. Mississippi State - W

Arkansas just needs to show up. Auburn too. Too much offense and running the ball just might shut down the defense that the rest of the nation was raving about. LSU showed them all that if you can run against Ole Miss, you can win. Remember, LSU left 10 points on the field, could have changed the entire game.

#6 Alabama (7-1, 4-1)

11/1 - BYE
11/8 - @ LSU - L
11/15 - vs. Mississippi State - W
11/22 - vs. Western Carolina - W
11/29 - vs. Auburn - L

Are you on crack?

Alabama can win out if LSU beats them.

And Ole Miss only needs to lose to Auburn.

LSU would hold the tiebreak over both.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:26 pm to
This is going to happen.
Posted by Pauldean
Red Stick by way of Syracuse
Member since Oct 2011
2629 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:34 pm to
I enjoyed reading this.



Then LMAO when you said Ohio St would lose to Michigan.

I like your attitude tho!!
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:35 pm to
Didn't read any of this.

The only way LSU can make the playoff is if they win the conference.
Posted by JamesonandTiger
Arlington tx
Member since Sep 2014
330 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:36 pm to
I looked up the word Optimist in a thesaurus and it had tadelatt next to it
Posted by Gulffisherman
Bogalusa
Member since Oct 2009
3531 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:40 pm to
quote:

But if for some crazy reason none of that happens, I'm content with a win over bama, aTm and arky.


Solid post

Posted by efrad
Member since Nov 2007
18644 posts
Posted on 10/28/14 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

Florida State hasn't been dominate all season.


dominant

A team who dominates is said to be a dominant team.
Posted by Knight of Old
New Hampshire
Member since Jul 2007
10960 posts
Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:25 am to
quote:

LSU Chances at the CFB Playoffs.... (A Deep Look at the Rest of 2014)
quote:

tadelatt
Thanks, tadelatt!
I've copied this as my cheatsheet for the rest of the season. Because of the baby Jesus, I always have hope!
Posted by elprez00
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
29360 posts
Posted on 10/29/14 at 6:29 am to
Its so awesome that three weeks ago this board was struggling to find 6 total wins for this team, now were talking playoffs.


In all seriousness, if we were to win out and somehow manage to have all the chips fall correctly, then it would be a Les-mas Miracle of epic proportions. That being said, I don't see any honest way how that happens.

More importantly though, I am extremely encouraged by the improvement shown by a team full of underclassmen. Dude, we are going to be scary good for the next few years. PANTS ON/[OFF]
Posted by Eternally Undefeated
Member since Aug 2008
899 posts
Posted on 10/29/14 at 8:31 am to
"In all seriousness, if we were to win out and somehow manage to have all the chips fall correctly, then it would be a Les-mas Miracle of epic proportions. That being said, I don't see any honest way how that happens.

More importantly though, I am extremely encouraged by the improvement shown by a team full of underclassmen. Dude, we are going to be scary good for the next few years. PANTS ON/[OFF]"

These are my sentiments, exactly. As long as we don't relapse to the weakling style of play we exhibited in the Miss. St. and Auburn games during the rest of the season, I will count this as a successful learning experience for our future powerhouse team.
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