quote:
any declines following the recession are relatively very small and their numbers are dropping as a percentage of the population, so any affect is minimized.

Ok, let's say it's 2040, and the boomers are all retired and many dead. Suppose we see declining PR's in the 35&unders, and this time with no large retiring cohort to help make room for them. Would you deny that there is a real labor market problem in that case?

ETA: to be precise, I'm not saying I think that the boomers have no effect. I'm saying I think their effect is still mostly ahead of us, and that they are not driving the decline YET. The thing is, you'd expect to see increasing participation rates in the younger cohorts if age alone were the cause. It's worrying that we do not see that.

This post was edited on 9/18/14 at 10:27 am

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Posted by mmcgrath

Indianapolis

Member since Feb 2010

35474 posts

Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:33 am to 90proofprofessional

quote:
:| It's been dropping since the mid-90's.

The oldest Baby Boomers are 68 right now. They started turning 50 in 1996, so that would be about right.

quote:
Ok, let's say it's 2040, and the boomers are all retired and many dead. Suppose we see declining PR's in the 35&unders, and this time with no large retiring cohort to help make room for them. Would you deny that there is a real labor market problem in that case?

If the regular unemployment is 5% and most of the people who are not participating aren't collecting any welfare, why should I think there is a problem in the labor market? It would seem with low unemployment that there are jobs for most anyone who wants one.

If people aren't working and don't care enough to look for a job, whether they are discouraged or not, should mean that they are doing OK. It's when unemployment hits the teens for people who need and want a job that we should worry.

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