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re: OFFICIAL Week 2 NFL Bet Thread
Posted on 9/10/14 at 9:21 am to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 9/10/14 at 9:21 am to ChemE in the OP
What about the Seahawks -5.5 at the Chargers? I know its betting against a home dog, but damn the Hawks looked good last week.
1
Posted on 9/10/14 at 9:38 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
ChemE in the OP
Your thoughts on NY Jets +9.5 at Green Bay? (up from +8)
Getting a little value early in the week and NYJ has the "defense/running game" gameplan that stifled Green Bay in Seattle.
Obviously it's a road game and they aren't exactly to the level of Seattle's defense, but perhaps the Jets can stay within 10 points (hoping the line bumps to +10).
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 9:39 am
Posted on 9/10/14 at 9:42 am to supadave3
Posted on 9/10/14 at 9:42 am to supadave3
quote:
What about the Seahawks -5.5 at the Chargers?
Don't bet road favorites. You'll save money in the long run that way.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 9:49 am to dcrews
quote:
Did we learn nothing about road favorites last week?
So because road favorites didn't cover last week it means the Saints can't cover this week? Since when did this thread turn into square thinking only??
. Some trends in the Saints favor:
Drew Brees is 27-15 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-4 ATS as an underdog).
Saints are 7-3 ATS as favorites after losing as favorites.
Sean Payton is 8-3 ATS in his second-consecutive road game as a favorite.
The Saints could easily win this game going away. I backed Cleveland last week and won, but I don't have any respect for Pittsburgh's terrible defense that allowed that Cleveland backdoor.
The Saints had a Top 5 stop unit last year. They couldn't tackle last week vs. ATL (it was shocking and I'm calling it an anomaly). I suspect we see a big bounce back from them this week.
Cleveland's offense is nowhere close to Atlanta. The intangibles are on the Saints side because they know a loss to Cleveland likely puts them 2 games behind Seattle in the race for homefield advantage in the NFC.
Cleveland isn't good and the Saints are a SB contender. I wouldn't be too surprised if the sharps are back on the Saints this week as well when it's all said and done.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:45 am to dcrews
Yea, I definitely lean Jets and the points but probably won't play that game.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:47 am to ChemE in the OP
Anybody think there's value in Pitt +3 (buying 1/2 a point)? Seems like the Ravens might be a little distracted
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:50 am to tween the hedges
quote:
Also 49ers -7 against the Bears
SF all the way. Chicago hasn't won in SF since 1985, and this year the Bears are terrible vs the run just like last year.
I'd be shocked if Chicago kept it within 2 TDs.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:56 am to Tiger1242
quote:
Anybody think there's value in Pitt +3 (buying 1/2 a point)? Seems like the Ravens might be a little distracted
I think it's a smart play - seems like a FG game either way.
I wouldn't go too big bc the home team usually wins this rivalry game tho.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:57 am to Cole Beer
I'd have liked the 49ers better if the Bears would've won last week. They'll have urgency after dropping that home game to the Bills.
I'm torn on that one.
I'm torn on that one.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:02 am to ChemE in the OP
Early look at teams that fit my NFL method:
Ravens
Panthers
Giants
Vikings
Chargers
Raiders
Public hating these home squads. The way the Ravens and Giants looked week one has generated some value there as well.
Ravens
Panthers
Giants
Vikings
Chargers
Raiders
Public hating these home squads. The way the Ravens and Giants looked week one has generated some value there as well.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:06 am to Tiger1242
quote:
Anybody think there's value in Pitt +3 (buying 1/2 a point)? Seems like the Ravens might be a little distracted
A part of me says to take Baltimore. This is a rivalry game at home and at night. And with the whole Ray Rice deal, it could actually bring the team together and get the crowd even more charged up.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:08 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Early look at teams that fit my NFL method:
What is your method?
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:12 am to Tiger1242
What I really like to play is home teams that lost the previous week and are getting less than 30% of public bets. Ravens, Chargers, Giants, Raiders, Browns all fit that. First bet of Week 2:
Sep 11 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[102] BAL RAVENS -145
218 / 150
Sep 11 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[102] BAL RAVENS -145
218 / 150
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:13 am to ChemE in the OP
So you play those teams on the ML?
And why do you like to go against the public?
And why do you like to go against the public?
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:17 am to Tiger1242
quote:
And why do you like to go against the public?
Because it is often a value play. Vegas wasn't built on the public consistently cashing tickets - it's as simple as that, really.
If the public is 70% - 80% on a side, some pros will automatically go the other way. I don't know what the metrics are exactly, but it is a good place to be.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:18 am to Tiger1242
I bet sports like buying stocks usually. Buy teams when the public hates them cause you get extra value. My guess is the Chargers make Vegas a ton of cash this week. SEA looked really good Week 1.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:20 am to Billy Mays
quote:
Because it is often a value play. Vegas wasn't built on the public consistently cashing tickets - it's as simple as that, really.
If the public is 70% - 80% on a side, some pros will automatically go the other way. I don't know what the metrics are exactly, but it is a good place to be.
Yea that makes sense, but if you are betting MLs than it doesn't really matter does it?
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:24 am to Tiger1242
quote:
Yea that makes sense, but if you are betting MLs than it doesn't really matter does it?
You're still going to get a better price.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:25 am to ChemE in the OP
Okay so you're looking for better odds more so than a safer bet, I get that
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