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re: OFFICIAL Week 2 NFL Bet Thread
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:27 am to dcrews
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:27 am to dcrews
Dcrews, it's one thing to adhere to a personal betting philosophy of no road favorites. It's another thing to automatically discourage anyone who wants to play a road favorite with your notion that road favorites are long term losers.
Just thought you should know that road favorites are actually 51.58% ATS since 2003.
Hopefully everybody ITT decides to critically evaluate each game without relying on "gambling truths" that may or may not have sound statistical backing.
Good luck everyone
Just thought you should know that road favorites are actually 51.58% ATS since 2003.
Hopefully everybody ITT decides to critically evaluate each game without relying on "gambling truths" that may or may not have sound statistical backing.
Good luck everyone
1
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:27 am to Tiger1242
quote:
Yea that makes sense, but if you are betting MLs than it doesn't really matter does it
Well, the ML value fluctuates depending on line moves. It's not just a stagnant number, the value changes just like a normal point spread.
When it comes to ML, for me, it depends on the key number of 3.
If I back a dog getting 3.5, I'm taking the points and ignoring the ML. If I like a favorite laying 3.5, I'll play the ML or buy a half point to get to 3.
It's more of a gut feeling than anything. Sometimes if I like a side laying/taking 1.5 points or less, I might just bet the ML instead of the standard -110 since you are essentially predicting your side to win the game outright.
Sometimes I'll sprinkle some ML (a quarter of a unit) on a home dog laying 6-7 points (if I think they are a live dog that can win outright).
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:29 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Dcrews, it's one thing to adhere to a personal betting philosophy of no road favorites. It's another thing to automatically discourage anyone who wants to play a road favorite with your notion that road favorites are long term losers.
Just thought you should know that road favorites are actually 51.58% ATS since 2003.
Hopefully everybody ITT decides to critically evaluate each game without relying on "gambling truths" that may or may not have sound statistical backing.
Good luck everyone
+1.
The spread has no memory or carryover from week to week. It's all about line value, intangibles, and matchups.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:35 am to Billy Mays
quote:
The spread has no memory or carryover from week to week. It's all about line value, intangibles, and matchups.
This is what I'm trying to master, I am real small potatoes when it come to betting (I generally bet to where my winnings will be $5, so if the odds are -130 for example I'll bet $6.50 to win $5.00). So I'm not exactly paying off student loans with my winnings
What I have been trying to do is find the safest bets I can find at first glance, do a lot of research, and place my bet if it looks right. Sure I look at trends and statistics on home vs road dogs, ect... But mostly it's about the teams playing.
College and Pro combined I'm up $20 so far this year, so I hope I'm getting better at it and not just getting lucky...
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:45 am to Tiger1242
Everyone has a different philosophy - but I think most ITT can agree there are basic tenets of gambling that are proven to give you the best chance at success long-term. People put too much stock emotionally into short-term results (heaters or slumps).
IMO, the goal every week is to have a winning record, not matter the margin. However you choose to get there is up to you, but being more knowledgeable about line value, key numbers, trends, intangibles, and matchups certainly puts you in a better position to succeed.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:32 pm to Billy Mays
Bears +7
Chargers +6
Cowboys +3.5
Giants +2
Vikings +3
Falcons +5
Chargers +6
Cowboys +3.5
Giants +2
Vikings +3
Falcons +5
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:50 pm to Cole Beer
quote:
SF all the way. Chicago hasn't won in SF since 1985, and this year the Bears
Bills had never won in Chicago....
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:02 pm to Tiger1242
quote:
Okay so you're looking for better odds more so than a safer bet, I get that
That's what gambling is about, really. Because there is never such a thing as a safe bet. So If the public pushes the odds of a game to be 65/35, when in fact it's closer to 55/45 then if you stick to that in the long run you help your ev. Sometimes (should be all the time, really) it's not about betting on who you think will win, but about who you think should be getting better odds than they are.
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 1:37 pm to castorinho
2nd NFL Week 2 bet is in...
Sep 14 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[252] CAR PANTHERS -145
218 / 150
Sep 14 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[252] CAR PANTHERS -145
218 / 150
Posted on 9/10/14 at 2:52 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Since when did this thread turn into square thinking only??
During Payton era (including last week's game in Atlanta), the Saints have covered only 5 out of 38 road games.
13% road cover rate.
quote:
didn't cover last week
Try haven't covered shite on the road since 2006.
Take out the words "Saints" and "Browns" and tell me if you'd back a road team that has a 13% cover rate away from home.
Bet based on numbers, not teams.
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 2:54 pm to Tiger1242
[quote] I am real small potatoes when it come to betting (I generally bet to where my winnings will be $5quote]
That's the smartest thing to do when first getting started. No need to bet $100 a game if you get most of the thrill from researching the matchup and being vested in one of the teams playing. THat is about 75% of the reason I gamble on football. I love the anaylsis of stats and trends and of course the money, but if the Titans and KC are playing, I really don't care either way which of those teams win. BUT, if i have $25 on KC, you can be damn sure I'm rooting for them like it's my favorite team. Absolutely no reason for me to be betting huge wagers like I hear some of these guys boasting about and the fear of losing that much money would take the fun out of it for me.
That's the smartest thing to do when first getting started. No need to bet $100 a game if you get most of the thrill from researching the matchup and being vested in one of the teams playing. THat is about 75% of the reason I gamble on football. I love the anaylsis of stats and trends and of course the money, but if the Titans and KC are playing, I really don't care either way which of those teams win. BUT, if i have $25 on KC, you can be damn sure I'm rooting for them like it's my favorite team. Absolutely no reason for me to be betting huge wagers like I hear some of these guys boasting about and the fear of losing that much money would take the fun out of it for me.
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 3:04 pm to ChemE in the OP
Trying the parlay card as usual. Got 4 out of 5 last week so no dice. Again, these lines are always a little different then what you guys have depending what site you use?
taking a look at this week:
looking at JAX +6- I just don't see any reason to believe in WASH right now. JAX will come to play and it will be close. I wouldn't even be surprised to see JAX win straight up.
DET +2.5- I wasn't really impressed with CAR last week like some.
looking at the under again in the Tampa game
STL-TB under 37- I don't see either offense scoring much with TB and their bad O-line against a pissed off Rams D. And the Rams will probably try and play it safe as usual on offense.
BUF +1 - kind of think they (the Dolphins) have a let down after last week and the Bills have had the Dolphins number lately.
taking a look at this week:
looking at JAX +6- I just don't see any reason to believe in WASH right now. JAX will come to play and it will be close. I wouldn't even be surprised to see JAX win straight up.
DET +2.5- I wasn't really impressed with CAR last week like some.
looking at the under again in the Tampa game
STL-TB under 37- I don't see either offense scoring much with TB and their bad O-line against a pissed off Rams D. And the Rams will probably try and play it safe as usual on offense.
BUF +1 - kind of think they (the Dolphins) have a let down after last week and the Bills have had the Dolphins number lately.
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 3:05 pm to ChemE in the OP
Fire away, contrarians.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 3:05 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Everyone has a different philosophy - but I think most ITT can agree there are basic tenets of gambling that are proven to give you the best chance at success long-term. People put too much stock emotionally into short-term results (heaters or slumps).
I can agree, and I won't tell people how to bet; but in a betting thread, I'm ok with giving my opinion. (and can accept that people may/and will think I'm an idiot)
That being said, trends do mean something (to me anyway). A 13% cover rate on the road under a specific coach means something and is relevant. Clearly one should be cautious when evaluating bets for this particular road favorite.
I bet based on value. A line move 4 points one way across a key number, I'm going to evaluate it.
Bet how you want, and don't take my comments as me telling you what to do. I'm just here to get info, give info and have a good time.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 3:06 pm to ChemE in the OP
Eating some juice this year, huh?
Posted on 9/10/14 at 3:09 pm to dcrews
quote:
can agree, and I won't tell people how to bet; but in a betting thread, I'm ok with giving my opinion.
quote:
I'm just here to get info, give info and have a good time.
A shame everyone in these threads can't think this way. Reading some of the posts you would think some people have a winning % around 100%.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 6:46 pm to PurpleAndGold86
So who do we like tomorrow? Betonline just gave me a 100 free play I have to use by tomorrow
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:01 pm to tween the hedges
I'll add my .02... if I'm betting a favorite in the NFL, I find more value on road favorites.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:01 pm to tween the hedges
Not going to play the NFL game tomorrow night, but I'd imagine if you must bet, get on the correct side of the "3", and maybe even try a middle.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 8:40 pm to tween the hedges
I have Baltimore. Paid the extra vig and took them -135 on the ML.
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